WNBA Picks:
The WNBA season is finally back Friday night with a trifecta of matchups, plus a star-studded Saturday slate to follow, so I’ve got you covered with projections for them all and best bets on the slate(s).
Throughout the season I will be writing up WNBA picks almost daily (depending on the WNBA schedule) right here at VSiN so buckle up and let’s get ready for a fun and profitable season in the W. There’s still time to check out the first three WNBA pieces I wrote, which covered win totals (Part 1 | Part 2), championship odds and MVP futures.Â
Now, for the game projections from the T Shoe Index:
Friday
Dallas Wings vs Minnesota Lynx (-5.5), O/U 163.5
Paige Bueckers makes her WNBA debut against the Minnesota Lynx – who will be without All-Star Kayla McBride and Alanna Smith is also listed as doubtful in this one. Minnesota opened as 8-point favorites and actually was bet up to 8.5 early before the McBride news broke and shifted this line down to 5.5. The O/U opened 165.5 and has tumbled down to 163.5.
TSI projects Minnesota -7 with a total of 166. Given McBride and Smith are out, I think the total makes sense at this number and there might be some value still on Dallas, but for the first game with this much uncertainty, I’m going to pass in favor of better options on the board. A player prop to consider here would be Bridget Carleton over 10.5 points, as she is expected to be the beneficiary of Smith and McBride’s absences.
Advice: Stay away from side and total
Washington Mystics vs Atlanta Dream (-7.5) O/U157.5
If you read my win totals article, you already know I’m higher on Atlanta than the market this year after adding Brionna Jones and Brittney Griner in the offseason. Washington is going to be without Georgia Amoore for the season after an ACL injury, and will also be missing Aaliyah Edwards and Shikira Austin for this game.
TSI projects Atlanta -5 before the injuries, with a total of 155. I’d make about a 2-point adjustment for the injuries here, so this line makes sense to me now. Kudos if you snagged the 3.5s or 4s that were out there earlier in the week. I think I’d lean Under here, but totals can be tricky this early in the season with the combination of roster moves and offseason rust being a factor, so I’ll pass for now.
Lean: Under 157.5
Golden State Valkyries vs. Los Angeles Sparks (-6.5), O/U 162
I’m not saying this is the best game on the slate, but I am probably most excited for this one to see what the expansion team Valkyries look like, in addition to Kelsey Plum’s debut as a Spark.
This game opened with LA as 7.5-point favorites and that is inching down as we get closer to tip. The Over/Under has seen significant movement up to 162 after opening around 159. TSI projects LA as just a 1-point favorite with a total of 164, so I’m going to ride with the numbers and hope Golden State isn’t as bad as the market seems to think they’re going to be.
Bet: Valkyries +6.5 (Play to +5)
Saturday
New York Liberty (-4) vs Las Vegas Aces, O/U 168
This should be the best game of the weekend; the defending champion Liberty taking on the re-tooled 2x champion Aces and their shiny new toy in Jewell Lloyd. New York opened as 4.5-point favorites and that is tumbling down, now at 4 and even 3.5 at some spots.
The Over/Under is 168 after opening at 167.5. TSI projects Liberty -5.5 with a total of 164.5, but I’m not super keen on betting an Under in this matchup until I see what kind of pace and efficiency Vegas will play with now that they have Lloyd in the lineup as a dominant scorer. I might end up grabbing New York if this gets to 3, but for now I’ll just lean that way.
Lean: Liberty -4
Indiana Fever (-7.5) vs. Chicago Sky, O/U 168
These aren’t the best two teams playing, but this game will have all of the eyeballs on it, as we get another Caitlin Clark vs. Angel Reese battle to start the season. If you recall from my win totals piece, TSI is a little lower on Indiana than the market (but still very high overall) and higher on Chicago than the market, so it’s no surprise to see TSI showing value on Chicago here.
The line opened 7.5 before touching as low as 6.5 and then getting back to 7.5, while the O/U has been everywhere from 167.5 to 166 and back up to 168.5. TSI projects this game as Indiana -4 with a total of 162.5; however, like I mentioned before on the totals, there have been a ton of significant roster and coaching moves that could/will impact pace for teams so I’m weary of totals for now. I do love Chicago here, so I’m making it a bet.
Bet: Sky +7.5 (Play to +6)
Phoenix Mercury (-2) vs. Seattle Storm, O/U 162.5
Mercury star Kahleah Copper missed practice earlier this week, according to reports, but even with Copper in the lineup, TSI is not as sold on the Mercury as the market seems to be. I think it’s possible Seattle’s Ezi Magbegor is the most underrated player in the league, and I think Seattle is being greatly underpriced here in this game.
The line opened Phoenix -2.5 before touching 3, and now is falling and has touched 1.5 at some books. TSI agrees with this late movement, projecting Seattle as a 2.5-point favorite with a total of 163.5. If Copper were to miss, that would create even more value on Seattle, obviously, so I’d get in now before it drops any more.
Bet: Storm +2 (Play to pick)
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