WNBA Picks
It’s been a very entertaining first weekend of the WNBA season, as we’ve seen the Liberty and Aces do battle already, Caitlin Clark start off with a triple double in a win over Angel Reese’s Sky, and Napheesa Collier and Kelsey Plum drop 30-bombs in their openers.
We’ve got two games on Sunday and a standalone Monday game that I’ll cover in this article, with projections and bets from the T Shoe Index.
Sunday
Connecticut Sun vs Washington Mystics (-3.5), O/U 158
The Sun got pretty much dismantled this offseason, losing their coach and every single starter from last season. The Mystics are dealing with injuries to key players and have already played a game Friday night in a surprising (relative to the projections and point spread) win over Atlanta.
The line in this game opened Washington -4 and has bounced back and forth between 3.5 and 4 since, while the total opened at 156, got bet down to 153.5 before ascending to the 158 it sits at now. TSI projects Connecticut as the home favorite here by a point, with a total of 158.5. At current numbers, it would be Sun or nothing for me, but I think backing Sun guard Marina Mabrey to go over 15.5 points is an even safer bet, since she’s one of the few bright spots left on this team.
Bet: Marina Mabrey Over 15.5 Points
LA Sparks vs Minnesota Lynx (-5.5), O/U 162
As I mentioned earlier, Napheesa Collier and Kelsey Plum had two of the best season debuts in league history Friday night, and they’ll coincidentally face each other Sunday evening. Collier, who was my MVP bet in that preseason article, should be a difficult matchup inside for the Cameron Brink-less Sparks, while Plum has the advantage of playing against the Lynx without Kayla McBride, who’s still out for personal reasons.
There’s been two-way action on this game, with the line opening at Minnesota -5.5 before touching -8, and now back down to 5.5, while the total opened at 161.5 before being bet everywhere in between 160 and 162.5. TSI projects Minnesota -5 with a total of 158, so perhaps undervaluing the new-look Sparks’ offense for now, so I’m going to pass on this game and simply use it as another data point for LA, specifically.
Advice: Pass
Monday
Dallas Wings vs Seattle Storm
Both of these teams are coming off of bad losses in their openers and will desperately be looking to get the sour taste out of their mouths. Paige Bueckers and Dallas got embarrassed by Minnesota Friday night, while Seattle saw the line move 9 points in their favor and lost by double digits to Phoenix – which didn’t have Kahleah Copper. There are no lines for this game yet, but TSI projects Seattle -3.5 with a total of 169.5.
For all of my WNBA picks, including prop bets and live plays, be sure to follow me on X @TShoeIndex and turn your notifications on to get real-time updates from me on all things WNBA.
