WNBA Picks
This first week of the WNBA has been the ultimate “Process vs Results” battle that I’ve so often talked and written about. The process has been textbook; bets have consistently beat the market – sometimes by 5+ points – and the projections have been thorough and meticulously calculated. The results have been abysmal this first week.
No way around it, but it’s an extremely limited sample size and, to quote Wolf of Wall Street, “The show goes on!” Let’s ride it out and know the process will win out in the long run. Tonight’s WNBA slate has two games, featuring some of the most watched and talked about teams in the league, so let’s get to the TSI projections and bets for these games:
Atlanta Dream vs Indiana Fever (-4), O/U 174
Fresh off an upset win in Indiana earlier this week, Atlanta will play this rematch at home in College Park, with hopes of foiling another Caitlin Clark performance this week. Indiana looks to regroup and get a road win after starting the season 1-1 with a dominant performance over the Sky in the opener before the aforementioned loss to the Dream.
This line has been everywhere between Indiana -3 and Indiana -5, trending more towards the latter. The total has steadily climbed from 171.5 to 174, after these teams combined for 181 just a few days ago. TSI, however, has Indiana -4.5 with a total of just 168, though Atlanta’s drastic difference in pace and efficiency compared to last year hasn’t quite caught up in the numbers yet. The only thing I’m confident about in this game is Caitlin Clark, so I think her PRA prop is worth taking.
Bet: Caitlin Clark Over 38.5 Points/Rebounds/Assists (-125)
Chicago Sky vs New York Liberty (-11.5), O/U 164
Chicago hasn’t played since the opening weekend beatdown at the hands of Indiana, and New York hasn’t played since their statement win over the Aces in their opener. New York pretty much has it all, with size and excellent guards; Chicago, meanwhile, has very good interior play with Reese and Kamilla Cardoso, but their guards leave a lot to be desired. I think this is a very bad matchup for them in the backcourt, as Sabrina Ionescu and Natasha Cloud are about as good as it gets as a 1-2 guard punch.
The line for this game opened New York -11.5 and has been everywhere between 10.5 and 12, while the total has ticked up to 164 from 163.5. TSI projects Liberty -12.5 with a total of just 159, so I do like the Under here.
Bet: Under 164 (Play to 162)
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