WNBA Picks
There’s a 4-pack of WNBA games on tap for Friday night and a massive doubleheader on Saturday, so hopefully TSI can get us on track with some winners. There aren’t any marquee games Friday night, but Saturday will feature Caitlin Clark and the Fever taking on Breanna Stewart and the Liberty.
Now that teams are getting a few games under their belts, I’m able to run some formulas weighing the on-court-only data more or less, giving us more of a framework to work off of for bet selection, so hopefully that starts to help here like it’s done in other sports for us this year.
Here are the TSI projections for Friday and Saturday games:
Friday
Minnesota Lynx (-15.5) vs Connecticut Sun, O/U 160
Minnesota looked really sloppy in its last game against Paige Bueckers and the Wings in front of the home crowd, so I’m sure they’d like to get back playing to their standard, but will still be without all-star Kayla McBride. The Sun got ran out of the building by Vegas in its last outing, so if there’s any ounce of mental toughness in that locker room, they will have a better showing Friday or Minnesota will do more of the same to them, given the talent disparity.
After opening Lynx -15.5, the line is up to 16, with the total dropping from 161 to 160. TSI projects Lynx-13.5, with the on-court-only projection of -16.5, while projecting the total at 162, with some formulas as high as 166.
Bet: Over 160 (Play to 161)
Seattle Storm (-5.5) vs Phoenix Mercury, O/U 157.5
In a rematch of these teams’ season openers, Seattle is yet again favored by 5.5 despite getting thoroughly handled by Phoenix in the first go-around. The total at sharp books has remained steady at 158.5 but recreational books are much lower, sitting at 156.5-157.5. Phoenix is still without star Kahleah Copper, but has played well so far, going 2-0 without her. Seattle has been up and down, losing the opener before bouncing back against Dallas.
TSI actually projects Phoenix -4, with no formulas nearly as high as the market on Seattle, with a total projection of 156 and as low as 145.
Bet: Mercury +5.5 (Play to +2)
LA Sparks (-11) vs Golden State Valkyries, O/U 159.5
LA came out of the gates red hot in its opener but has dropped its last two games since, while Golden State found a way to beat the Mystics earlier this week in a very low-scoring affair. The Valkyries will be without Tiffany Hayes in this game due to injury, and LA is still missing star big Cameron Brink as she recovers from her 2024 ACL tear.
The line has dipped from LA -11.5 to 11, and the total has also dropped from 161.5 to 160 so far. TSI projects LA -10.5 with a total of 158, with the on-court data favoring LA by 14 with a total of just 149.5. I’d love an Under here but it’s a little too close for my liking at this number.
Lean: Under 159.5
Las Vegas Aces (-14.5) vs Washington Mystics, O/U 167
No one was more surprising in their first two games than Washington, starting 2-0 despite missing some key pieces to injury, but they came back to Earth against Golden State, losing a snoozefest earlier this week. The Aces responded to their double-digit loss to New York by slaughtering Connecticut earlier this week as they look to gel with their new pieces.
This line opened 14.5 and has been everywhere between 13.5 and 15, while the total is somewhere between 166 and 167.5, depending on where you’re looking. TSI favors Vegas by just 10, with a total of 166, with the on-court data indicating Aces -16 with a total of 164.5. I’ll lean Washington here but the (limited) on-court data projection scares me off of a bet.
Lean: Mystics +14.5
Saturday
Indiana Fever vs New York Liberty (-1.5), O/U 169.5
There are lines starting to populate for this game at recreational books, as this one probably looks to take on a (relatively) massive handle for a WNBA game. The defending champs versus the hottest name on the block equals must-see TV. New York has destroyed everything in its path through two games and Indiana is 2-1 and has already played two games this week (both against Atlanta).
TSI projects New York -2.5 with a total of 164.5, with the on-court formula saying Liberty -4, 169. I think New York sends a message here in a hostile environment.
Bet: Liberty -1.5 (Play to -2)
Atlanta Dream (-5.5) vs Dallas Wings, O/U 168.5
Atlanta managed to slay the Caitlin Clark dragon once this week, and now will look to take down rookie Paige Bueckers and the winless Dallas Wings at home. If I wasn’t traveling this weekend, I’d be in attendance for this one. Atlanta is a 5.5-point favorite with a total of 168.5, while TSI projects Dream -4.5 with a total of 165.5.
The on-court data leans more towards Atlanta and the Over, projecting Dream -7.5 with a total of 169. I think I like the spot for Dallas here after Atlanta had to play two down-to-the-wire games against the Fever this week, but the on-court projection again will keep this just a lean.
Lean: Wings +5.5
For all of my WNBA picks, including prop bets and live plays, be sure to follow me on X @TShoeIndex and turn your notifications on to get real-time updates from me on all things WNBA.
