WNBA Picks
We got our first glimpse of the Caitlin Clark-less Indiana Fever last night. It was not a pretty sight, as they lost to the Mystics on the road as 4.5-point favorites. I’ve got to dig into the numbers to make an even bigger adjustment for their temporary rating while Clark is out. Thursday night has a Liberty/Valkyries rematch from earlier in the week. The Sky/Wings matchup features Angel Reese vs. Paige Bueckers.
Here are Thursday’s projections from the T Shoe Index:
New York Liberty (-18) vs. Golden State Valkyries, O/U 163
New York easily disposed of Golden State earlier this week, winning by 28 points at the Barclays Center over the WNBA’s newest team. The defending champs remain undefeated and show no signs of championship fatigue. Tonight, they’re 18-point favorites with an O/U of 163, while TSI projects Liberty -19 with a total of 162. The spread remained relatively steady while the total has dropped from 164.5 on Wednesday, so the Under would just be a lean at this point, though my formula, which is focused more on teams’ specific performances at home or away, is projecting just 157 points in this one.
Lean: Under 163
Chicago Sky vs. Dallas Wings (-2.5), O/U 169
I don’t know if there was a worse bet made in the preseason than me betting the Sky win total over. I drastically – and that’s underselling it – overestimated how competent this backcourt would be. Angel Reese has been extremely inefficient in her shooting numbers, despite racking up double doubles like crazy. I also feel like Chicago forgets Kamilla Cardoso exists on offense at times, which bogs down their spacing with her and Reese clogging the lane.
Dallas hasn’t been a whole lot better, but Bueckers has dazzled in her rookie campaign. We’ve seen the market buy on Chicago here, as the line is dropping to +1.5 at some books. The total has remained relatively flat at 169-169.5. This is a tricky game from the projection standpoint, because the official TSI projection is Wings -5.5 with a total of 172.5, but these teams have been wildly inconsistent, especially in home/road splits. Some of my formulas I reference are as different as having Chicago favored by 4.5 with a total of 177.5. I think the consistent theme here is that points are expected, so I will play the Over.
Bet: Over 169 or better
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