WNBA Picks
We’ve got a nice five-pack of WNBA action Friday night after a wildly entertaining Thursday night. Paige Bueckers and the Wings allowed Angel Reese’s Sky to get their first win of the season, while the Liberty got pushed to the brink by newcomer Golden State in the absence of Jonquel Jones from the lineup. In other news, it seems the adjustments to TSI are paying off, as we’re on a nice little 7-3 run on all bets over the past few days. Let’s hope that continues, and there’s plenty to choose from on tonight’s slate.
Let’s get to the projections from my T Shoe Index:
Washington Mystics vs New York Liberty (-8), O/U 163.5
New York will play the league’s first true back-to-back this season (based on my quick research). After going down to the wire with Golden State at home and now having to travel to play the Mystics, this is a very tough spot for Breanna Stewart and the Liberty, especially if Jonquel Jones is going to be out again. Washington is 2-0 at home, taking down both the Dream and the Fever as underdogs so far this season.
The market is definitely buying on Washington and the Under, as the line has dropped from -10 to -8 and the total down from 165. TSI projects New York -10 with a total of 171, but with the absence of enough back-to-back games to really track the impact, I didn’t make a projection adjustment, but you really have to consider it in your analysis. Truthfully, I’d still lean Washington +8 and stay away from the total, because I could argue fatigue will lead to less defense but also worse offense, so nothing official from me at these numbers.
Lean: Mystics +8
Indiana Fever (-12.5) vs Connecticut Sun, O/U 158.5
The Fever got their first glimpse of life without Caitlin Clark, who’s out with a quad injury, earlier this week. It was not pretty. The offense was stagnant, and it was a lot of Kelsey Mitchell iso ball, which led to an outright loss against the Mystics as 4-point favorites. Connecticut has been the worst team in the league so far, as expected, but they have found ways to be sneakily competitive in a few games.
This will be an interesting one because the Sun probably believe they can win this game without Clark in the Indiana lineup. The line has actually moved towards Indiana from -12 to -12.5, and the total is in a freefall from 163 to 158.5. TSI projects Indiana -10 with a total of 155.5 (accounting for Clark’s absence). The formula I use that isolates each team’s home/road performances projects the total at just 146.5, so I think I’d still play the Under here.
Bet: Under 158.5 (Play to 157.5)
Phoenix Mercury vs Minnesota Lynx (-4.5), O/U 158
Phoenix has been without star Kahleah Copper so far this season, but they’ve quietly put together a 4-1 start to the year, thanks to Alyssa Thomas and Satou Sabally, both of whom were acquired this offseason. The key story in this game is the status of Lynx superstar Napheesa Collier, who is questionable. TSI player ratings would adjust the spread by about 6.5 points if Phee were to sit this one out.
The market isn’t quite sure what to make of it, either, as we’ve seen the line be everywhere from -3 to -5.5, and the total from 157.5 to 159. TSI projects Lynx -1 with Collier in the lineup, with a total of 161.5. I think grabbing Phoenix now (which TSI still likes) with the thought that Collier could be out and the line could drop another half dozen points is the move.
Bet: Mercury +4.5 (Play to +3.5)
Seattle Storm (-5.5) vs Atlanta Dream, O/U 157.5
There’s a clear top four in the WNBA (Lynx, Liberty, Aces, Fever). After that, these two teams are at the top of the next tier, along with Phoenix. They’ve put together nice starts to their seasons, which is good for us as Dream season win total Over bettors. Atlanta gets Brittney Griner back after a one-game absence, and Seattle should be at full strength as well.
The market has shown an appetite for Seattle here, moving them from -3.5 to -5.5, and the total has dipped from 159 to 157.5. TSI is higher on Atlanta, though, projecting Seattle as just a 2.5-point favorite with a total of 170 (!). The driving force of the total projection being so high is the home/road splits, as Atlanta has gone 3-0 to the Over on the road by a margin of 16 points per game.
Bet: Over 157.5 (Play to 160)
Las Vegas Aces (-10) vs Los Angeles Sparks, O/U 166.5
This is another game where I don’t quite understand the market POV. Vegas is just 2-2 to start the year (again, good for us as Under bettors), with their only two wins coming against the Sun and the Mystics (by 3). LA is just 2-4, but has played a pretty difficult schedule and has been competitive in every game.
The market has pushed Vegas from -9 to -10.5 at some spots, while the total has climbed to 166.5 after some recreational shops opened it at 164.5. TSI paints a whole different picture for this game, actually projecting a one-point Sparks’ win with a total of just 160.5. In Vegas’s lone home game, the total reached just 147 against a Washington team that averages 159 total points per game. Every formula I run indicates the Under is the play here.
Bet: Under 166.5 (Play to 164)
For all of my WNBA picks, including prop bets and live plays, be sure to follow me on X @TShoeIndex and turn your notifications on to get real-time updates from me on all things WNBA.
