WNBA Picks
Las Vegas Aces (-2.5) vs Phoenix Mercury, O/U 159.5
WNBA Finals Game 1 is finally here! Although this isn’t quite the matchup most people were expecting, there should still be plenty of fireworks and entertainment as the Phoenix Mercury travel to Sin City to take on the Las Vegas Aces. Vegas opened as a 3.5-point favorite at home with a total of 160 at Circa, and that line currently sits Aces -2.5 (-115) while the total remains the same.
Throughout the regular season, Phoenix was rated as the better team, posting both a better offensive and defensive rating within the TSI; although down the stretch heading into the playoffs, the Aces went nuclear and won 17 straight games and looked like the best team in the league. They certainly have the championship pedigree on their roster and coaching staff. So where does that leave us for Game 1?
The Aces dominated this matchup in the regular season, winning and covering in four of five by an average score of 82-77, which also led to the Under going 4-1 in those matchups. Specifically, the three games in Vegas were won by an average of 5.5 points by the Aces, with an average combined total of 153. TSI projects Aces -5.5 with a total of 156. Although I’d understand playing Phoenix based on rest angle, I think Vegas comes out with a statement win since they’ve been in this position before and the Mercury really haven’t with this group.
WNBA Pick: Las Vegas Aces -2.5
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