WNBA Picks
Happy Labor Day! I am, well, laboring away to bring you today’s WNBA projections plus my weekly Monday college football best bets article later today. This is such a fun time of year, and there is no shortage of betting opportunities. You can imagine for someone like me who makes projections and bets for a variety of sports, this is a very busy time of year, but I enjoy it. There are three games on the slate for today in the WNBA, so let’s get to the T Shoe Index projections for those:
Connecticut Sun vs. Atlanta Dream (-11), O/U 159.5
Atlanta has won three of its last five games and covered in four of those, while Connecticut has done the exact same in their last five games, so both of these teams are playing good basketball right now and beating the market regularly. Head-to-head, these teams have split the season series 1-1, with Connecticut winning at home by eight and Atlanta winning at home by 24. In their last 20 combined games, these teams are 15-4-1 ATS, which is absurd. So who prevails? TSI projects Dream -12 with a total of 160.5. Atlanta has actually been a half point better on the road this year, while Connecticut has been four points better at home, so we should see each team’s A-game today. Not much value to be had on the number, so I’m going to sit this one out.
WNBA Pick: Pass
Minnesota Lynx (-17.5) vs. Dallas Wings, O/U 170
My first thought when I saw this spread was, “Paige has to be out for Dallas.” Nope. Dallas is just that bad, or maybe Minnesota is just that good. Dallas has lost its last five games and failed to cover in four straight, while Minnesota is 3-2 straight up and ATS in its last five. Minnesota, Paige Buecker’s childhood team, has owned Dallas this year, winning all three matchups by an average of 11.5 points per game, with an average combined total of 165. TSI projects Minnesota -15 with a total of 173.5. However, I’ve got some conflicting formulas, so I don’t feel great about either the side or total here.
WNBA Pick: Pass
Seattle Storm (-8) vs. Los Angeles Sparks, O/U 173
Both things can be true: LA is on a back-to-back after eking out a win against Washington last night, and I think this is a great spot to back them. They’ve failed to cover in five straight games and have won just two of their previous five, and are 2-8 ATS in their last 10. So why in the world would I think this is a time to back them? Well, they’re 11-7 ATS on the road and have been seven points better on the road than at home, which is mind-blowing, but true. If they no-show here, they might just be on fade alert the rest of the season, but I think this is where they come alive. TSI projects Storm -4 with a total of 171, and my market estimation is just Storm -2.5 with a total of 171.5, and when that formula aligns with TSI on totals, it is on an 18-5 run.
WNBA Picks: Los Angeles Sparks +6 or better; Under 172 or better
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