WNBA Picks
We’ve got a couple of Game 2s in the WNBA playoffs tonight after a shocking duo of Game 2s took place last night, in which the Indiana Fever and Seattle Storm fought to keep their seasons alive for at least another game. We’ll see if Phoenix and Golden State can do the same as they take on the Liberty and Lynx, respectively. At this point, I think it’s about the individual team matchups more so than the overall team power rating, so as I mentioned yesterday, the projections will be largely based on head-to-head results and the implied market ratings for these teams. That being said, here are tonight’s projections for the WNBA playoffs:
New York Liberty (-2.5) vs. Phoenix Mercury, O/U 159.5
These teams have played just two games in New York this season, splitting those games 1-1, with Phoenix winning the first matchup by eight and New York winning the second by 13. In all five matchups this year, the average score has been 84-80 in favor of Phoenix. Both teams struggled down the stretch, going just a combined 8-12 ATS in their last 10 games each, and neither has thrived in their respective favorite/underdog role, either, going just 25-34 ATS in those roles. TSI projects Liberty -4 with a total of 163, but in the last three matchups, these teams have gone Under the total by an average of 16 ppg, so I’d hesitate to fire on the Over here. I know Phoenix has seemingly had their number this year, but I have a hard time seeing the Liberty losing a closeout game at home, so I’d lean that way.
WNBA Lean: New York Liberty -2.5
Golden State Valkyries vs. Minnesota Lynx (-10.5), O/U 151.5
Minnesota has swept the season series 5-0 and done so by an average score of 84-69 this season. Golden State just does not have the top-end talent to compete with this juggernaut Lynx team, although that doesn’t take away from the fantastic inaugural season for the expansion team. The fact they’re even in the playoffs is remarkable, but I’m afraid their season ends tonight at the hands of ‘Phee and co. TSI projects Lynx -10.5 with a total of 151, so not much room to maneuver here in terms of making a play. Given the shark-like mentality of this Lynx team, maybe playing them on an alt line would be reasonable. DraftKings offers Lynx -14.5 at +150, I think I’d do that.
WNBA Pick: Minnesota Lynx -14.5 (+150) alt line
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