WNBA Picks
What a shocking turn of events in the Liberty series last night, where the line moved two points towards the Liberty pregame and then they proceeded to get annihilated at home by the Mercury, which sends the series to a game 3 (best of three) back in Phoenix. Minnesota eked out a win at Golden State to advance to the semifinals. Tonight, Atlanta and Las Vegas will look to close out their respective series at home vs the Fever and Storm, respectively, after losing on the road in game 2. Here are tonight’s projections from the T Shoe Index:
Atlanta Dream (-7) vs. Indiana Fever, O/U 153.5
Atlanta has won three of the five matchups this season, including two of three at home. Indiana has been 5.5 points worse on the road this season, which should lend itself to a nice home-court advantage for the Dream in this closeout game. Indiana’s scoring average is eight points less on the road than at home, which I think should help contribute to an Under here, especially with fatigue likely a factor as this is the third game this week. TSI projects Dream -8 with a total of 150.5, which confirms my analysis of an Under play here. A cherry on top for this play is that Indiana was 14-7 to the Under on the road this season, including game 1 of this series.
WNBA Pick: Under 153.5
Las Vegas Aces (-8) vs Seattle Storm, O/U 159.5
The avalanche of Aces wins finally came to a halt in game 2, so credit to Seattle for fighting for their season. Vegas has been consistent with their home/road splits this season, and Seattle has actually been a point better on the road this year. The one interesting trend from the home/road splits is that Vegas has scored six more points per game at home than on the road, which could be a handy nugget if you’re looking at an Over here. TSI projects Aces -8 with a total of 168, and these teams have averaged 168.5 in their five matchups this year, with the last four going over the total. It’s a game 3 and the third game this week, so tread lightly, but I’m going to take a shot on the Over here.
WNBA Pick: Over 159.5
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