WNBA Picks
Three of the four semifinal spots have been claimed, with just one remaining and going to the winner of tonight’s Liberty/Mercury showdown in Phoenix. The Minnesota Lynx will be waiting on the winner, so congratulations to the winner of this game; your prize is that you get to play the title favorites in the semis after a three-game series. But who will that be? Let’s take a look at the game through the lens of the T Shoe Index.
Phoenix Mercury (-3) vs. New York Liberty, O/U 156
The Liberty have had some tough injury luck throughout the year, which I think has definitely disrupted their rhythm after they started the season on a tear. That luck continued into the playoffs, as they had just gotten Breanna Stewart back in the lineup, and now she’s limping around with what appears to be a sprained knee and is clearly not 100%. The beneficiaries of that are the Phoenix Mercury, who dominated game 2 in New York and look to advance and eliminate the defending champs on the Mercury’s home floor after stealing back home court advantage. Phoenix is 2-1 in home games against the Liberty, although they did lose game 1 of this series. They’ve won by an average of 8.5 points per game with an average combined total of 161.5. TSI projects Mercury -5.5 with a total of 158.5. I wouldn’t feel great about the total, and it’s hard to count out the defending champs, so I’m not going to make a play on this game. After the way game 2 went, maybe a Phoenix alt line would be the best value play because I can see this either being a Liberty win in their resurrection, or they get blown out again.
WNBA Lean: Phoenix Mercury -9.5 alt line (+260)
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