WNBA Picks
Don’t you hate when a bet you absolutely nailed the handicap on gets negated by another bet that you didn’t quite gauge correctly? That was my Monday night in the WNBA, where I felt like I gave a perfect handicap of why it was the time to buy the Sparks, and they won outright as 8-point ‘dogs, only for the Under to lose by a few points to split my plays for the day. That’s how it goes. Anyway, we’ve got another doubleheader tonight – both oddly starting at 10 p.m. ET, so let’s get to the WNBA projections from the T Shoe Index:
Golden State Valkyries vs. New York Liberty (-6.5), O/U 156.5
New York is laying a half dozen points on the road despite going just 2-3 in their last five and covering just once. Meanwhile, Golden State has rattled off three straight wins and covered in all three. The Liberty have swept the season series 3-0 so far, and after a blowout in the first game, the last two have been decided by five or fewer, including a three-point win at Golden State in June. TSI projects Valkyries -1.5 with a total of 155, and the market estimation formula only favors New York by a half a point here. Worth noting, New York is a terrible 3-15-1 ATS on the road this year, while Golden State is 14-5 at home. The Liberty have been about 5.5 points worse on the road, while Golden State has been about 5.5 points better at home. This is all a recipe to back the Valkyries.
WNBA Pick: Golden State Valkyries +4.5 or better
Phoenix Mercury (-6.5) vs. Indiana Fever, O/U 165.5
Indiana has won and covered in just two of its previous five games, while Phoenix is heating up, no pun intended, having won four straight and covered in three of those. These teams have split the season series 1-1 so far, with Indiana winning by six at home and Phoenix blowing them out in August at Phoenix. Indiana is in a backslide, going just 3-6-1 ATS in their last 10, but TSI projects just a 3.5 point line in favor of Phoenix here, with a total of 169. Their two games so far have averaged 181.5 points, and my last five games formula makes the total around 179. This is Over or nothing for me.
WNBA Pick: Over 167.5 or better
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