WNBA Picks
Then there were four. We’re on to the WNBA semifinals, which will be a best-of-five series, as opposed to the best-of-three that’s played in the first round and the (now) best-of-seven WNBA Finals series. The Las Vegas Aces had a tight, one-point home win over Seattle to clinch their spot in the semis, where they’ll host the Indiana Fever, who seemingly have everyone out hurt but won game 3 in Atlanta, nonetheless. Title favorite, Minnesota, swept Golden State to get here. They’ll host Phoenix, who took down the defending champs in three games in round one. Here are Sunday’s projections from the T Shoe Index:
Las Vegas Aces (-8.5) vs. Indiana Fever, O/U 162.5
These teams haven’t faced each other since July, and only three times this season, but Indiana has won two of three against the Aces – obvious caveat is that Caitlin Clark is not playing in these playoffs. In those matchups this season, Indiana won by an average score of 81-71, although Vegas did win the lone matchup at home by eight points. Both teams have caught fire lately, going a combined 13-6-1 ATS in their last 10 games. TSI projects Aces -6.5 with a total of 159. I think this game 1 will be a feeling out process for both teams since they didn’t match up as many times as other teams did this season, especially with the way the Fever’s roster looks right now, so I’d lean Under here, as the Fever are 24-18 to the Under this season if they’re on the road or an underdog.
WNBA Lean: Under 162.5
Minnesota Lynx (-7) vs Phoenix Mercury, O/U 157.5
I had mentioned on “A Numbers Game” on VSiN a while back that the Mercury were a sleeper title contender, and they just knocked off the defending champions; however, Minnesota has been dominant for much of the season and swept their first round so they will have the rest advantage in this important game 1. Plus, Minnesota has three of the four matchups this season by an average score of 78-70. The home/road splits for these teams definitely favor the Lynx, as they’ve gone 14-8-1 ATS at home, while Phoenix is just 9-13 ATS on the road. TSI projects Lynx -10.5 with a total of 153. This is definitely an Under for me, as these teams have combined to go 24-18-3 to the Under in their respective home/road roles this season, and all four previous matchups went under the total.
WNBA Pick: Under 157.5
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