WNBA Picks
The last week of a professional sports season is undoubtedly the hardest to handicap from a betting perspective, because you never know – and the data can’t capture – teams’ motivations. Playoff seeds are locked up, and teams get eliminated from contention and may begin tanking for draft positioning. It’s all a chaotic mess, and the WNBA is no exception. My advice would be to drop your units on WNBA to a half unit the rest of the regular season to mitigate some risk here but still be able to have action if you so choose. Thursday has three games on tap, so here are the TSI projections for those:
Washington Mystics vs. Phoenix Mercury (-9.5), O/U 158.5
Phoenix is on a tear at the perfect time before the hope to make a deep playoff run, winning five straight and covering in three of those. Washington is eliminated from postseason contention and has dropped five straight and covered just twice in that span. Phoenix won both regular season matchups by an average score of 78-67. TSI projects Phoenix -10 with a total of 162, and the last five games’ data would suggest Phoenix should be more like a 16-point winner here with a total of 165. I would lean Phoenix and take the Over, because the Washington defense has been putrid lately, allowing 89 points per game in its last five.
WNBA Picks: Over 160 or better; Lean Phoenix Mercury -9.5
Golden State Valkyries (-10.5) vs. Dallas Wings, O/U 159.5
Dallas has (obviously) been eliminated from playoff contention and has lost and failed to cover in their last five games, while Golden State has turned it on lately, winning and covering in four straight games. The Valkyries have won two of the three meetings this season, but the total points scored is basically even with a combined average total of 161.5. TSI projects Valkyries -9.5 with a total of 158.5, and the most recent games would indicate a Golden State 20-point win with a total of 154.5. I’d lean Valkyries here, as the Wings seem lifeless, and I’m going to play the Under.
WNBA Picks: Under 158.5 or better; Lean Golden State Valkyries -10.5
Las Vegas Aces vs. Minnesota Lynx (-2.5), O/U 164.5
This is a late-season matchup between two teams with real championship hopes, and the line has moved 3.5 points towards Minnesota after Vegas opened as a 1-point favorite. Minnesota has won and covered in four of their last five, while Vegas has won a million straight games and covered in three of their last five. Minnesota has dominated the season series 3-0 by an average score of 99-66. TSI projects Lynx -5 with a total of 171. Vegas has been red hot, so I’m hesitant to play the side, but I do like the Over here.
WNBA Pick: Over 166.5 or better
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