WNBA Bets:
Yesterday kicked off the start of my WNBA writing for the year, and if you missed it, go back and read that and see where my T Shoe Index found value in some season win totals, including bets on the Indiana Fever and Dallas Wings.
Today, I’ll finish the rest of the league’s win total projections and add some more Over/Unders to our futures portfolio, including the New York Liberty and Las Vegas Aces. Here are the remaining regular season win total projections from the T Shoe Index for the 2025 WNBA season:
Las Vegas Aces: Win Total Over/Under 30.5
After winning back-to-back WNBA titles under coach Becky Hammon, the Aces showed some championship fatigue last season and were sluggish (and unhealthy) at various points of the season, and it ultimately cost them a three-peat. How did Vegas respond this offseason? By making a huge splash and trading star guard Kelsey Plum to the Los Angeles Sparks in a deal that landed them Jewell Lloyd from the Seattle Storm.
TSI indicates they’re going to be near the top of the league again with 25.4 projected wins; although, that’s well shy of the current win total Over/Under of 30.5. I think it ultimately comes down to have fast Jewell Lloyd can integrate into the system; if she hits the ground running, TSI may be a little low on Vegas, but if it gets clunky early on trying to balance Lloyd’s shots with superstar A’ja Wilson (not to mention the other stars on the team), they very well could go under this total.
Bet: Under 30.5
Los Angeles Sparks: Win Total Over/Under 20.5
Speaking of Plum, her new home in LA will make her the face of the team, alongside young star Cameron Brink, who’s coming off an ACL tear and isn’t expected back until closer to the WNBA All-Star Break. That potent 1-2 punch is accompanied by FIBA 3×3 star Dearica Hamby, who’s an inside force in her own right.
The Sparks did lose several players from last season, including Zia Cooke, Lexy Brown and Kia Nurse, all of whom provided – ahem – “sparks” from the guard positions, but one would imagine Plum will make up for that production. If Brink was healthy from the jump, I’d be inclined to want to bet this win total Over, but TSI is only calling for 18.3 wins as it stands, so another Under lean for me.
Lean: Under 20.5
Minnesota Lynx: Win Total Over/Under 30.5
After a wildly successful season that vaulted the Lynx back into the title conversation, Minnesota will undoubtedly be left hungry and looking to avenge last season’s Finals loss to the Liberty. This team was TSI #1 for stretches last season and was absolutely suffocating defensively, led by Napheesa Collier. Minnesota was relatively quiet this offseason compared to some of its league counterparts, but did manage to acquire sharpshooting forward Karlie Samuelson via trade from Washington to help provide more spacing for Collier inside.
The Lynx also return all-star guard Kayla McBride, so they essentially just re-loaded the clip and have revenge on their minds. TSI predicts another great season for them, with 27.7 wins, but that is below where the market has pushed them to at 30.5.
Lean: Under 30.5
New York Liberty: Win Total Over/Under 32.5
Speaking of “running it back”, New York is fresh off a championship and returns almost everyone from that title run; however, losing Courtney Vandersloot to Chicago cannot just be dismissed and brushed under the rug, as she is a true difference-maker and floor general offensively. That’s not to say Sabrina Ionescu and co. can’t make up for it, but it’s something to monitor. They still bring back league MVPs Breanna Stewart and Jonquel Jones to pair alongside Ionescu, so I’m sure they still feel pretty good about their chances to repeat, and they should.
TSI projects a whopping 29.5 wins for the Liberty, but the market is now up to 32.5. I know it seems like I’m just the “bet the Under on every good team” guy right now, but the market is just hammering these contenders’ win totals up when I think the league will be much more balanced this season. Stay away for me.
Advice: Stay Away
Phoenix Mercury: Win Total Over/Under 24.5
I’m sure you’ve been waiting for it (expansion Valkyries notwithstanding): the team that has a huge discrepancy between the market and TSI projections. This is it. Phoenix lost Diana Taurasi to retirement and Brittney Griner to Atlanta, but acquired Alyssa Thomas and Satou Sabally to pair with Kahleah Copper.
The market is clearly sold on this trio as a real contender this year, but TSI is not, projecting just 16.3 wins; well short of the 24.5 the market sits at. The truth is maybe somewhere in the middle, but the Win Share numbers for those three just didn’t warrant a major upgrade for Phoenix, though they did improve their TSI rating by a half point when the dust settled this offseason.
Bet: Under 24.5
Seattle Storm: Win Total Over/Under 25.5
The most notable offseason headline for Seattle was losing superstar Jewell Lloyd via trade with Las Vegas and Los Angeles that netted them Lexi Brown and Zia Cooke; however, they did their best to upgrade their situation by signing Nneka Ogwumike, Alysha Clark, Erica Wheeler and Katie Lou Samuelson to go alongside vastly underrated forward Ezi Magbegor and veteran Skylar Diggins, and drafting international dunking sensation, Dominique Malonga.
TSI projects 23.2 wins for Seattle, while the market sits at 25.5. Lots of moving pieces and too narrow a projection gap so this is a stay away for me.
Advice: Stay Away
Washington Mystics: Win Total Over/Under 14.5
The Mystics are in full-blown rebuild mode. They traded guard Ariel Atkins to Chicago for the #3 pick, lost Shatori Walker-Kimbrough to free agency, and franchise superstar Elena Delle Donne announced her retirement.
This is going to be a rough season in Washington; although, TSI projects 15.5 wins but the market has dropped from 15.5 to 14.5. With 3 draft picks inside the top 6 in this year’s draft, the future might be bright in DC, but this will be a year to look to bet against the young, rebuilding group.
Advice: Stay Away
Follow Tyler on X, @TShoeIndex, for more WNBA betting insights.
