WNBA Bets:
The WNBA preseason has officially begun, and I’ve seen at least one sportsbook offering regular season win total lines. My T Shoe Index preseason work is done, including my projections on win totals for each team, so I’m going to share half of those with you today and half of those tomorrow, alongside some helpful nuggets for each team and if I’m going to take an official position on the Over/Under.
Here are the TSI WNBA bets and season win total projections, in alphabetical order. Be sure to check back on VSiN.com tomorrow for part two of the TSI win total projections for the rest of the league.
Atlanta Dream: Win Total O/U 20.5
As someone who lives within driving distance of Atlanta, I am happy to say I expect the Dream to take a step forward this season after a really disappointing last couple of years. They took big swings in free agency, literally, signing 6’9” All-Star, Brittney Griner, and 6’3” All-Star, Brionna Jones to bolster the frontcourt, while also adding veteran guard Shatori Walker-Kimbrough to pair alongside star guard Rhyne Howard.
Atlanta also notably added former South Carolina sharpshooter Te-Hina Paopao through the draft. After winning just 15 games last year, their win total has ticked up to 20.5, but that’s not high enough according to TSI, which projects the Dream to win around 24 games with the upgraded size and talent they’ll have this year, and a 72.6% chance to eclipse 21 wins.
Bet: Over 20.5 Wins
Chicago Sky: Win Total O/U 18.5
Chicago is pushing their chips in to win now around young talents Angel Reese and Kamilla Cardoso, trading their No. 3 pick in the 2025 WNBA draft to the Washington Mystics for two-time All-Star, Ariel Atkins, while also stealing assist-monster and 3-point sniper, Courtney Vandersloot, from the champion NY Liberty to bolster the backcourt alongside rising star Chennedy Carter.
Chicago also added some good depth pieces at the guard position by trading for Rebecca Allen, signing Kia Nurse and drafting Hailey Van Lith out of TCU. This is another instance where TSI has more optimism than the current market, indicating a 89.8% chance of winning 19 games.
Bet: Over 18.5 Wins
Connecticut Sun: Win Total O/U 10.5
Talk about a whirlwind of events and emotions for Sun fans; they went from true championship aspirations (TSI #1 for stretches last season) to losing their coach, their best players, and for all intents and purposes, their hope of a successful season in 2025.
Connecticut lost all five of their 2024 starting lineup through free agency and trades; traded Alyssa Thomas, DiJonai Carrington, and Tyasha Harris, while DeWanna Bonner and Brionna Jones became free agents. They also hired Rachid Meziane as their new head coach, replacing Stephanie White, who now coaches Caitlin Clark (and DeWanna Bonner) in Indiana. Their win total is down to 10.5 after winning 28 games in 2024, and TSI was in lockstep with the early number of 13.5 but would lean Over at the current 10.5.
Lean: Over 10.5 Wins
Dallas Wings: Win Total O/U 19.5
To me, Dallas might be this year’s Indiana Fever in the sense that they have the hottest new face in the league in star point guard Paige Bueckers, who will presumably start alongside certified bucket-getter, Arike Ogunbowale. They will be exciting and they will be a captivating TV watch; however, TSI doesn’t quite project that to lead to a ton of wins this year.
Remember, my 2024 player values based on Win Shares only had Caitlin Clark worth about 1.5 points to the spread for Indiana (that’ll be much higher this year, as she finished the last half of 2024 increasing that number weekly), so to expect Bueckers to come in and turn around what was a very bad team is unfair to ask of a rookie. The Wings did bring in defensive ace Dijonai Carrington, so they definitely should be improved, but a 10+ game improvement from their 9 wins in 2024 seems like a stretch based on TSI, which projects just 15.5 wins.
Bet: Under 19.5 Wins
Golden State Valkyries: Win Total O/U 8.5
Undoubtedly the most difficult team in the league to gauge is the expansion team, Golden State Valkyries. They will presumably be led by former Las Vegas Aces guard Kate Martin and WNBA veteran Tiffany Hayes to go along with a slew of expansion draftees. They selected Justė Jocytė with the 5th overall pick and Shyanne Sellers at 17th overall in the WNBA draft.
Despite TSI projecting 14.5 wins for Golden State, I wouldn’t advise jumping at the projected value, simply because there is too much uncertainty with what this will look like and there are more known commodities for us to bet on the board.
Advice: Stay away
Indiana Fever: Win Total O/U 31.5
Last year, Indiana was a fun story and must-see-TV with rookie Caitlin Clark elevating the league’s attendance and TV viewership to numbers the league had never seen before. Now, with a new (better) coach and a plethora of help from the supporting cast, there will be genuine pressure on Clark and the Fever to deliver not just entertainment, but wins.
The Fever made several key additions in the 2025 offseason, including acquiring DeWanna Bonner and Natasha Howard through free agency, and trading for Sophie Cunningham. They also re-signed Kelsey Mitchell, signed backup point guard Sydney Colson, and acquired Jaelyn Brown in a trade to provide adequate depth to support what should be a dominant starting five for coach Stephanie White.
The market is at 31.5 wins for Indiana, but TSI is slightly less optimistic, projecting 25.8 wins, which is probably to be expected since this is such a popular team in a more lightly-bet market.
Bet: Under 31.5 Wins
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