Josh Appelbaum

Betting against the public (and not with the public) is a smart long term strategy because more often than not, the public loses. By taking the unpopular opinion, contrarian bettors can capitalize on public bias, place themselves on the side of the house (who always wins) and also get better odds by taking advantage of shaded and inflated lines.

To be a successful contrarian bettor, you must adopt the same "trust but verify" mentality. On the one hand, you can trust that the public will likely be betting a favorite, a big-name team, a home team or an over. But that's not enough. You must verify this trust with hard data so you know it's 100% true. You must also find a way to quantify the confidence level of the public so that you can gauge the level of contrarian value.

The public almost never wants to bet on an underdog. Why? Because underdogs are perceived to be the inferior team and casual bettors are psychologically programmed to want to bet on the superior team. However, while it doesn't happen often, every now and again the public will fall in love with an underdog. Maybe the team has a compelling storyline that ropes them into rooting for them. Or maybe the public overvalues the underdog and thinks they're getting too many points to pass up._x000D_

To bet against the public, you have to go where the public is. This might sound obvious, but it's critically important. Every sport is different and bettors need to be mindful of this. Contrarian betting only works by targeting the most heavily bet games with the most lopsided public betting. If the public is hammering one side to the tune of 65% of bets or more, the side receiving 35% or less of bets would be the smart contrarian play.

Some might say being a contrarian is just blindly going against what everyone else is doing. But in betting, there is a method to the madness. By going contrarian, bettors can extract additional value by capitalizing on public bias, taking advantage of shaded and inflated lines and getting better numbers in the form of additional points or sweetened payouts. Best of all, contrarian bettors place themselves on the side of the house.

​The most crucial step to bankroll management is tracking every single bet you make. _x000D_ _x000D_