Canelo vs. Munguia
It is Cinco de Mayo weekend and Canelo Alvarez will be in the ring, as is tradition at this point. Canelo fought on Cinco de Mayo in 2012 and has fought around there more often than not every year since 2015. He’ll square off with Jaime Munguia for the super middleweight undisputed title at T-Mobile Arena on Saturday, May 4.
The odds are heavily in Canelo’s favor, but the 27-year-old Munguia comes in with an unbeaten record. DraftKings Sportsbook has a lot of betting options available for the Canelo vs. Munguia fight.
Canelo vs. Munguia Odds
Canelo Alvarez -525 // Jaime Munguia +380
All odds as of Wednesday May 1, 3 p.m. PT
Canelo vs. Munguia Date
Saturday, May 4, 2024
How to Watch Canelo vs. Munguia
DAZN PPV & Prime PPV
Canelo vs. Munguia Prediction
Youth and experience go head-to-head here, though Munguia does have 43 professional fights to his name, so that’s a lot of experience. However, he doesn’t really have a lot of it on the big stage, as Canelo (60-2-2, 39 KO) has fought a much stronger set of opponents and has been under the brighter lights.
Munguia does have the WBC Silver super middleweight title, a prize he won in June 2023 over Sergiy Derevyanchenko. He successfully defended it in January with a ninth-round TKO of John Ryder. Munguia has spent time as both the WBO light middleweight champion and also the WBO Inter-Continental middleweight champion. Of his 43 wins, 34 have come via knockout, including four of his last five triumphs.
Canelo lost to Dmitry Bivol two years ago at T-Mobile Arena, but that was for the light heavyweight title. The step up in weight class seemed to hurt Canelo’s output and efficiency, as Bivol won by unanimous decision. That is Canelo’s only loss since September 14, 2013 when he suffered the first defeat of his career at the hands of Floyd Mayweather. He also has a draw against Gennady Golovkin from 2017 and one against Jorge Juarez way back in 2006.
As far as this fight goes, it will be at 168 pounds. Munguia is the bigger fighter and his jab will be the most important punch in the fight. When Canelo has shown vulnerability, it has been against fighters who leverage the jab effectively. Munguia’s aggressiveness has sometimes been followed by a little bit of immaturity and arrogance, leaving him open for counterpunches. If he can stay focused and use his size and strength to his advantage, Canelo will be in for a real test.
Canelo has faced plenty of tests before and has emerged victorious in most of them, but he’s 33 now with 64 professional fights. Each of his last four fights has gone the distance and he finished Caleb Plant 65 seconds into the 11th round back in November 2021. This could be a dangerous fight for him against a bigger, stronger, forward-pressing contender.
On the other hand, there may not be a better fighter in the world at taking a small crack in the door and blowing it wide open. Munguia’s inexperience on a stage of this magnitude and against a fighter of this stature could prove to be his downfall. Few are better at attacking the exposed body than Canelo and enough shots to the abdomen will slow down Munguia and eliminate two of his best hopes – his stamina and his height.
Munguia can throw, but he also opens himself up to take abuse, something Canelo has largely avoided throughout his career.
Pick: Canelo Alvarez -525
Canelo vs. Munguia Prop Bets
DraftKings Sportsbook has a lot of prop bets available for Canelo vs. Munguia. Here are just some of the options and some brief analysis:
Fight Goes The Distance
Yes -190 // No +140
Only two of the last 10 fights for Munguia have gone the distance, including two retirements after Round 6 from his opponents. Canelo’s last four fights have all been decided by the judges, but his previous three fights ended in stoppages.
Winning Method
Canelo by decision/technical decision -115
Canelo by KO/TKO/DQ +180
Draw +2000
Munguia by decision/technical decision +700
Munguia by KO/TKO/DQ +950
Canelo has never been knocked out. Munguia has never lost. Of Canelo’s 60 wins, 21 have come via decision, including the 2022 rematch win over Golovkin. Munguia has also never faced a fighter nearly as talented as Canelo. If you can pick the right method, you’ll cut down that -525 price on Canelo by quite a bit. Because Munguia can leave himself open to some punishment as a fighter who likes to press forward, Canelo at +180 by KO/TKO/DQ seems like a viable option with a nice return here.
