2026 College Basketball Wooden Award Odds and Predictions:
Let’s take a shot at handicapping this year’s Wooden Award futures board.
Shot is the operable word here since this year’s favorite is going to need to make a lot of them, many from behind the arc, to ultimately take home the award.
Purdue’s Braden Smith (+550) starts the season atop the odds board, due in large part to the lack of a prominent big man fitting the profile of recent winners Cooper Flagg and Zach Edey.
So before any Wooden Award wagers are made, the prevailing mindset of voters must first be identified as a key variable.
Sure, Smith can score, as he averaged 15.8 PPG a season ago and should do even more in 2026, but as a point guard, he conducts his offensive work much differently than the past seven winners.
The last group of winners was a combination of power forwards and centers.
The 6-footer Smith’s game is more reminiscent of the trio of winners from 2016-2018 (Buddy Hield, Frank Mason III and Jalen Brunson).
Measuring Up
One way to handicap Smith’s chances of winning the award is to first get an idea of what type of statistical performance is needed to be in line with the accomplishments of Hield, Mason III and Brunson during their Wooden Award winning campaigns.
The past seven winners are excluded from a comparative analysis because voters scrutinize guards differently than forwards.
Below are the offensive averages for those guards during their Wooden Award seasons. Also included is how high their clubs ranked in the AP Poll during the last quarter of the season as an indication of the team success that is needed to win the award.
Brunson (2018) 18.9 points 4.6 assists 3.1 rebounds Highest AP Rank Feb-Mar: No. 1
Mason III (2017) 20.9 points 5.2 assists 4.2 rebounds Highest AP Rank Feb-Mar: No. 1
Hield (2016) 25.0 points 2.0 assists 5.7 rebounds Highest AP Rank Feb-Mar: No. 1
That makes the averages for the past three guards to win the Wooden Award: 21.6 PPG, 3.9 APG and 4.3 RPG.
Compare that with Smith’s line from a year ago: 15.8 PPG, 8.7 APG and 4.5 RPG.
With his assists and rebounds easily surpassing those averages, raising his point total would dramatically increase his chances of winning since his team already comes with a No.1 ranking.
For Smith to jump from 15.8 points to 21.6 points, it would require a 36% increase in scoring during his senior year. Take into account that Smith had a 24% increase in scoring from his freshman to sophomore year and another 24% increase from sophomore to junior season.
So if Smith continues the trend of increasing his scoring output at 24% each year, he would end this season at 19.6 PPG. Even if he doesn’t get to that 21.6 PPG, Smith’s numbers should be comparable to, or even better than, those Wooden Award winners.
Tier 1 Favorite
Braden Smith (+550)
Breakdown: Last year in the VSiN College Basketball Betting Guide, we placed the Wooden candidates into different tiers, with the top one filled with a number of high-profile names including Flagg, RJ Davis, Hunter Dickinson and Mark Sears.
This year, it is a group of one with Smith’s odds coming in close to half of the next name on the board, JT Toppin (+950).
Smith rightfully begins the season way ahead of the pack since he serves as the floor general for the favorite to win a national championship (Purdue +900).
Under a national spotlight, Smith has the green light to score from Matt Painter. With senior teammates Fletcher Loyer on the perimeter and Trey Kaufman-Renn down low, Smith’s already impressive assists number should keep on rising. Averaging a double-double would place him in the same double-double conversation with recent winners Edey, Oscar Tshiebwe and, a little further back, Anthony Davis, who also accomplished that feat – albeit with rebounds instead of assists.
There is every reason to believe Smith will finish with a better average stat line than other point guards who have also won the award – Trey Burke (18.6 PPG, 3.2 RPG and 6.7 APG in 2013), Jameer Nelson (20.6 PPG, 4.7 RPG, and 5.3 APG in 2004) and T.J. Ford (15.0 PPG, 3.9 RPG, and 7.7 APG in 2003).
Perhaps just as importantly, all three PGs were running the show for a team ranked in the Top 3 of the AP Poll late in the season when voters were deep in decision-making mode.
In essence, a Wooden Award bet on Smith is correlated with Purdue (+200) winning the Big Ten regular season title. Because if Purdue stumbles, it will likely be Michigan taking that crown and that would place Yaxel Lendeborg (10/1) in an optimal position to be the Wooden Award winner.
Tier 2 Favorites
JT Toppin (+950), Yaxel Lendeborg (10/1), Darryn Peterson (11/1), Cameron Boozer (12/1), AJ Dybantsa (12/1)
Breakdown: Much more crowded real estate down here.
Toppin offers the most brand-name recognition after his sensational season a year ago for a Texas Tech squad that lost a heartbreaker to Florida in the Elite Eight. Now Toppin will lead the Red Raiders without Darrion Williams, who moved on to NC State. That absence could help Toppin raise his scoring numbers (18.2 PPG & 9.4 RPG), while also hurting since one less star player is around to help Texas Tech get more marquee victories.
Just like Smith, Toppin’s production last year jumped significantly from the season prior, making an average of 20 points and 10 rebounds in 2026 a likely occurrence.
Much of the handicapping process for this award is determining if a current player fits a profile voters valued in the past. There is a lot of Tshiebwe in Toppin’s game. The problem, though, is Texas Tech, with a stacked Houston team in its way, might not get a Top 5 ranking like Kentucky had in 2022.
Call Lendeborg the poster child of Wooden Award candidates in the transfer portal era. He spent parts of three seasons at Arizona Western then left the JUCO level for two solid campaigns at UAB. Now, at 23 years old, he has experience and a leading role for a power conference squad hunting for a national championship. He can be this season’s Dalton Knecht.
The others in this group are the prototypical Freshman Sensations.
Peterson is making a pit stop in Lawrence before being the likely No.1 pick in next season’s NBA Draft. Bill Self is planning on the 6-foot-6 guard being the key to his Kansas squad turning around what has been three straight underwhelming seasons.
With a similar amount of hype comes Boozer at Duke to play where his father once did, and Dybantsa is generating some Danny Ainge-like anticipation at BYU.
Narratives play a role for these two. Boozer can be the second straight Duke freshman to win the award. Dybantsa will get a lot of ink regarding BYU’s ascension from semi-pretender to legitimate national contender.
Within this group, Toppin offers bettors significantly more security and equity.
Freshmen winning the award certainly isn’t common and is yet to happen in consecutive seasons (Flagg 2025, Zion Williamson 2019, Anthony Davis 2012, Kevin Durant 2007).
Tier 3 and Beyond
Darrion Williams (20/1), Trey Kaufman-Renn (22/1), Otega Oweh (25/1), Donovan Dent (25/1), Boogie Fland (25/1), Ja’Kobi Gillespie (30/1), Bryce Hopkins (30/1), Tahaad Pettiford (35/1), Richie Saunders (35/1), Alex Karaban (35/1)
Breakdown: Before a bettor dismisses this group because they aren’t near the top of the odds board, consider the current names contending for the Heisman Award. Two of those names are not Arch Manning and Cade Klubnik, the preseason favorites.
Perhaps there is Dante Moore, John Mateer or Fernando Mendoza in this talent pool.
The name I want to jump on here is Oweh since there is so much upside to what Mark Pope can do in Kentucky during his second season. The problem however is that Oweh suffered a turf toe injury during summer workouts. Reports indicate he says that he is healthy and ready to go, however, in the name of Brock Purdy, that is an injury that can linger.
Dent is another possibility because of all that scoring he did last year in New Mexico. The problem, though, is this offensive-minded guard is now in the Mick Cronin grind-it-out defense system at UCLA.
Dent should bring the Bruins more scoring punch and help them in the Big Ten standings, but he is likely in a situation that won’t allow his offensive production to reach Wooden Award levels.
The versatile 6-foot-6 Williams is now with Will Wade at NC State. He showed plenty of flashes at Nevada and Texas Tech, but has never been a true No.1 option. Wade will provide that chance.
Here is one major longshot to contemplate for a small-sized wager: Tucker DeVries (150/1). This is my addition to Mitch and Pauly’s tip jar. The sixth-year senior is healthy after playing only eight games for his father at West Virginia last year. During that time, the former Drake star shot 47.3% from 3-point territory. Now father, Darian, and son are in Indiana, and that type of storyline can create some much-needed media attention in the younger DeVries’ favor.
