Alabama vs. Hofstra Prediction
In the No. 4 vs. No. 13 matchup in the NCAA Tournament Midwest Region, Alabama vs. Hofstra is the first-round game at 3:15 p.m. ET on Friday, March 20 with a trip to second round on the line.
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How to Watch Alabama vs. Hofstra
When: 3:15 p.m. ET on Friday, March 20th
Where: Benchmark International Arena in Tampa, FL
Watch: truTV
Odds for Alabama vs. Hofstra
(odds current at time of publish)
Spread: Alabama -13.5 (-102), Hofstra +13.5 (-118)
Total: Over 161.5 (-110), Under 161.5 (-110)
Alabama vs. Hofstra Prediction & Preview
Alabama and Hofstra is the kind of first-round game that has the makings of a feel-good story colliding with a legitimate Final Four contender — and Nate Oats has been here enough times to know that 13-over-4 upsets don’t care about pedigree.
The Crimson Tide have made the NCAA Tournament in each of Oats’ six seasons, and the resume speaks for itself: four Sweet 16s in five years, an Elite Eight, and a Final Four appearance two seasons ago. But Alabama finished the regular season 23-8, dropped to 23-9 after getting stunned 80-79 by Ole Miss in the SEC Tournament quarterfinals, and the feeling around this program heading into Tampa is that there’s still unfinished business at the top. This team is better in some ways and worse in others compared to recent editions, but one thing never changes — the Crimson Tide are going to shoot, and they’re going to shoot often. Alabama took 3-pointers nearly 20% more frequently than their opponents and played at one of the fastest tempos in the country, while connecting on nearly 58% of their 2-point attempts. The goal is always to score in 3s, but they’re not exactly incapable of scoring inside the arc either.
The defensive reputation is a bit unfair. Yes, a lot of Alabama games end up looking like a pinball machine, but the Tide held opponents under 50% from an eFG% standpoint and limited what opponents did inside the paint. The real warts are in turnovers — one of the five worst rates nationally — and on the defensive glass, the latter of which was significant enough that the program pushed hard to restore Charles Bediako’s eligibility before ultimately losing that battle after five games. The pace-and-space style leaves some details unchecked on the boards, but Alabama escapes the SEC gauntlet here and doesn’t face the same level of offensive rebounding threats it dealt with all conference season. Labaron Philon and Aden Holloway are legit guards that check every box you want to see for a deep tournament run. How far this team goes likely comes down to the supporting cast around them.
Hofstra’s arrival here is one of the more emotionally resonant stories of Selection Sunday. Speedy Claxton — drafted by the Sixers out of Hofstra in 2000 — has spent years trying to get the Pride back to the Big Dance, and when the final seconds melted away in the CAA Championship win over Monmouth, the tears were real and earned. But strip away the heartwarming backstory and you still have a team with genuine teeth. This isn’t just a glass slipper waiting to shatter at midnight.
Hofstra isn’t the offensive juggernaut that Claxton’s earlier teams were — those squads finished as high as 16th nationally in eFG% — but this is the best defense he’s had in Hempstead. Seven-footer Silas Sunday and 6-foot-10 freshman Victory Onuetu anchor a unit that ranks among the nation’s leaders in 2P% and eFG% defense. The offensive calling card is perimeter shooting, with five players at 37.6% or better from 3 and Cruz Davis — a 40% shooter and the team’s top distributor — as the name to watch for a potential March star moment. Davis, Preston Edmead, and German Plotnikov all shot 83% or better from the free throw line, which is exactly the kind of late-game detail that turns close games into bracket-busting wins.
The issue is size. Alabama’s pace and physicality will test an undersized Hofstra front line, and the Pride’s 3-point defense ranked outside the top 250 nationally — not ideal when you’re about to see Philon and Holloway launching in rhythm off ball screens all game. If Alabama gets hot from deep early and the tempo becomes a track meet, Hofstra doesn’t have the horses to keep up. But if Davis gets going, the Pride shoot it efficiently, and the game stays close into the second half, those free throw shooters and that perimeter execution could make Oats sweat in Tampa.
Estimated Score: TBD
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