HomeCollege BasketballBetting Splits and CBB Sharp Money Picks for Friday February 16th

    Betting Splits and CBB Sharp Money Picks for Friday February 16th

    Josh Appelbaum examines where smart money is leaning for Jacksonville-Queens and North Florida-Kennesaw State.

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    Wake up with VSiN Daily Morning Bets, a quick 15-minute podcast posted at 7 a.m. ET highlighting the top games and biggest line moves of the day. For a full breakdown of Friday’s betting action be sure to catch the VSiN Market Insights Podcast at 3 p.m. ET.

    You can always track the latest odds and betting percentages for every game using our VSiN Betting Splits.

     

    In the meantime, let’s examine where smart money is leaning for today’s 15-game College Basketball slate.

    7 p.m. ET: Jacksonville at Queens (-1.5, 151)

    Jacksonville (13-13) just saw their brief two-game win streak come to an end, falling to Kennesaw State 66-61. On the flip side, Queens (10-17) has dropped three straight games and just fell to North Florida 93-79. This line opened with Queens listed as a 1.5-point home favorite. Right off the bat, this opening line seems fishy. Even factoring in home court, why is a 10-17 team who has lost three straight favored over a 13-13 team? Shouldn’t it be the other way around? We’ve seen Queens get steamed up from -1.5 to -2.5, at which point we saw some buyback on the dog drop the lack back down to -1.5. At first glance, it looks as though the line hasn’t moved off the opener of Queens -1.5. However, a closer look at the full history only shows liability on the Queens side, as the line has never dipped below the opener of -1.5 and has risen as high as -2.5. Queens is receiving 70% of spread bets and 88% of spread dollars, further evidence of pro money backing the home team in a “low bets, higher dollars” wiseguy bet split. Ken Pom has Queens winning by three points (77-74), which provides an actionable edge on Queens at the current price. Queens has the better offensive efficiency (216th vs 293rd) and takes better care of the ball (turnover percentage 101st vs 329th). Queens is averaging 81 PPG compared to 72 PPG for Jacksonville. Queens is 9-3 at home while Jacksonville is 2-12 on the road. Queens could also be worth a look on the moneyline (-120) for those who are nervous about a 1-point win that won’t cover the -1.5. Queens is receiving 64% of moneyline bets but 92% of moneyline dollars, a sharp bet discrepancy and further evidence of pros electing to play Queens to win the game straight up. This is also a revenge spot for Queens, who lost to Jacksonville on the road 79-77 on January 18th.

    7 p.m. ET: North Florida at Kennesaw State (-2.5, 164)

    North Florida (14-13) just snapped a three-game losing skid with a 93-79 win over Queens. Similarly, Kennesaw State (14-12) just snapped a six-game losing streak with a 66-61 win over Jacksonville. This line opened with Kennesaw State listed as a 2.5-point home favorite. While we haven’t seen a major line move, a closer look at the juice shows several shops juicing up Kennesaw State -2.5 (-115), signaling sneaky liability on the home team and a possible eventual game-day rise up to -3. Kennesaw State is receiving 54% of spread bets but 76% of spread dollars, signaling a relatively undecided public but also heavy smart money in their favor. Kennesaw State has a big edge in offensive rebound percentage (30% vs 24%) and is better at forcing turnovers (85th vs 110th). Kennesaw State is also better offensively (84 PPG vs 79 PPG), as well as better in the assists department (15 APG vs 13 APG) and in the rebounding department (39 RPG vs 34 RPG). Ken Pom has Kennesaw State winning by two points (84-82). Those looking to protect themselves from a tight game that may not cover the spread could instead target Kennesaw State on the moneyline at -140. Kennesaw State is receiving 60% of moneyline bets and 75% of moneyline dollars, a sharp bet split. Kennesaw State is 9-3 at home. North Florida is 4-9 on the road. This is another revenge spot, as Kennesaw State lost to North Florida on the road 84-75 on January 18th.

    Josh Appelbaum
    Josh Appelbaum
    Josh Appelbaum is a Sports Betting Analyst at VSiN and has been working in the betting industry since 2011. He has been with VSiN since 2019, contributing data-driven articles to VSiN.com, hosting the Morning Bets and Market Insights Podcasts and appearing on VSiN and DraftKings programs such as Follow the Money, The Lombardi Line, Sharp Money and The Sweat. He is a contrarian bettor and also the author of The Everything Guide to Sports Betting.

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