SPECIAL ANNOUNCEMENT: Greetings from Las Vegas! I’ll be here all week covering the Super Bowl for VSiN and DraftKings. Hope to see you at the book and sweat some games together!
Wake up with VSiN Daily Morning Bets, a quick 15-minute podcast posted at 7 a.m. ET highlighting the top games and biggest line moves of the day. For a full breakdown of today’s betting action, be sure to catch the VSiN Market Insights Podcast at 3 p.m. ET.
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- NCAAB Expert Picks
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You can always track the latest odds and betting percentages for every game using our VSiN Betting Splits.
In the meantime, let’s examine where smart money is leaning for today’s College Basketball slate.
8:30 p.m. ET: Grambling State at Alcorn State (-2.5, 135.5)
Grambling State (9-12) has won five of their last six games and just beat Jackson State 70-62. On the flip side, Alcorn State (5-16) just saw their three-game winning streak come to an end, falling to Southern 71-70. This line opened with Alcorn State listed as a 2.5-point home favorite. We’ve seen Alcorn State -2.5 get juiced up to -115, signaling liability on the home team and a possible move up to -3. This subtle movement is especially notable because this is a tiny “added game/extra game,” which means the public has no interest in the matchup but pros have targeted the home team based on the juice movement. Alcorn State is receiving 43% of spread bets but 79% of spread dollars, further evidence of pros in their favor. Alcorn State has the far better offensive efficiency (185th vs 330th), better three-point shooting (34% vs 30%) and takes better care of the ball (turnover percentage 18% vs 22%). Ken Pom has Alcorn State winning by three points (71-68). Alcorn State is just 2-2 at home but Grambling State is 2-8 on the road. Pros seem to be targeting Alcorn State on the moneyline (-150), as they are receiving only 50% of moneyline bets but 76% of moneyline dollars.
9 p.m. ET: Idaho at Sacramento State (-4.5, 132)
Idaho (8-14) just snapped an 8-game losing skid with a 81-75 win over Montana State. Meanwhile, Sacramento State (6-16) has lost five straight games and just fell to Portland State 58-51. This line opened with Sacramento State listed as a 4-point home favorite. Right off the bat, this opening line speaks volumes. Why is a 6-16 team favored by four-points over an 8-14 team? Shouldn’t this line be closer to a pick’em, even factoring in home court advantage? Pros have embraced the fishy home favorite, steaming Sacramento State up from -4 to -4.5. Sacramento State is receiving 41% of spread bets and 58% of spread money, a sharp contrarian bet split. Sacramento State has a big edge on the boards, boasting an offensive rebound percentage of 34% vs 23% for Idaho. Ken Pom has Sacramento State winning by four points (70-66). He also has Sacramento State ranked higher (305th vs 320th). Sacramento State is 5-4 at home. Idaho is 2-7 on the road. Those looking to protect themselves in a potentially tight game could target Sacramento State on the moneyline at -190. Sacramento State is receiving 66% of moneyline bets but 94% of moneyline dollars, further evidence of pros taking Sacramento State to win the game straight up.
9 p.m. ET: Southern at Jackson State (-1.5, 145)
Southern (12-9) has won three straight and just took down Alcorn State 71-70. Conversely, Jackson State (8-13) has dropped three straight games and just fell to Grambling 70-62. This line opened at a pick’em, which is notable because Southern has the better record. Even factoring in home court, shouldn’t Southern be favored as the “better” team? Pros have gone the other way, steaming Jackson State up from a pick’em to -1.5. Jackson State is receiving 57% of spread bets but 77% of spread dollars, a sharp “low bets, higher dollars” bet discrepancy. Jackson State has the better offensive efficiency (274th vs 295th), better offensive rebounding percentage (34% vs 24%) and better free-throw percentage (70% vs 65%). Jackson State is 2-1 at home. Meanwhile, Southern is 4-9 on the road. Jackson State is receiving 47% of moneyline bets but 87% of moneyline dollars, signaling pro money on the home team to win straight up at -125.
