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In the meantime, let’s examine where smart money is leaning for Saturday’s loaded College Basketball slate.
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2 p.m. ET: Illinois at Michigan State (-3, 146)
Illinois (17-5, ranked 10th) has won three straight games and just outlasted Nebraska 87-84 in overtime. On the flip side, Michigan State (14-9) just saw their two-game winning streak come to an end, falling to Minnesota 59-56. This line opened with Michigan State listed as a 2.5-point home favorite. Right off the bat, this opening line speaks volumes. Why is Michigan State favored if they are unranked and have the worse record? If it doesn’t make sense, there is usually a reason for it. Pros have embraced the fishy home favorite, steaming Michigan State up from -2.5 to -3. Michigan State is receiving 46% of spread bets but 69% of spread dollars, signaling a sharp contrarian bet split in their favor. Michigan State has the better defensive efficiency rating (21st vs 32nd) and superior three-point shooting (37% vs 34%). Ken Pom has the Spartans winning by one point (74-73). Those looking to protect themselves from a tight game that may not cover the number could instead target Michigan State on the moneyline at -160. Michigan State is 12-2 at home. Unranked home favorites vs ranked opponents are 18-11 (62%) straight up this season and 61-24 (72%) straight up since the start of last season.
4 p.m. ET: North Carolina (-3, 159) at Miami
North Carolina (18-5, ranked 3rd) has dropped two of their last three games and just fell to Clemson 80-76. Similarly, Miami (15-8) has also dropped two of their last three games and just fell to Virginia 60-38. This line opened with North Carolina listed as a 4.5-point road favorite. The public thinks this line is way too low and they’re rushing to the window to back North Carolina. However, despite receiving 87% of bets we’ve seen North Carolina fall from -4.5 to -3. Why would the oddsmakers drop the line to make it easier for the public to cover with North Carolina? Because pros have scooped up the points with Miami, triggering sharp reverse line movement in favor of the home dog. Miami is only receiving 13% of spread bets but 38% of spread dollars, making them one of the top contrarian plays of the day in addition to having a wiseguy “low bets, higher dollars” bet split. Buy-low unranked teams vs sell-high ranked opponents are 472-392 ATS (55%) since the start of last season. Miami has the better effective field goal percentage (55% vs 51%) and better three-point shooting (37% vs 35%). Miami also has value as a dog who can score (79 PPG), thereby keeping pace and opening up a backdoor cover opportunity. Miami is 11-2 at home this season.
10 p.m. ET: Arizona at Colorado (-1.5, 159)
Arizona (18-5, ranked 8th) has won four straight games and just edged Utah 105-99 in triple overtime. Meanwhile, Colorado (16-7) just snapped a two-game losing skid with an 82-70 win over Arizona State. This line opened with Colorado listed as a short 1-point home favorite. The public is split down the middle and doesn’t know whether to take the points or lay them. However, despite an even ticket count we’ve seen Colorado creep up from -1 to -1.5. In a vacuum, a line shouldn’t move at all if the tickets are split. So we know pros have sided with Colorado based upon the adjustment in their favor. Colorado is only receiving 50% of spread bets but 80% of spread dollars, further evidence of the bigger, sharper wagers backing the home team. Colorado is better at the three-point line (39% vs 36%) and at the free throw stripe (79% vs 73%). Pros seems to be specifically targeting Colorado on the moneyline (-125), as they are only receiving 33% of moneyline bets but 72% of moneyline dollars. Colorado is 13-0 at home. Arizona is on a short turnaround after having played a triple overtime thriller against Utah. Colorado would also match the unranked home favorite vs ranked opponent system match (72% straight up since the start of last season).
