Today we have a loaded Wednesday College Basketball slate with 45-games to choose from. You can track the latest odds and betting percentages for every matchup using our VSiN Betting Splits.
In the meantime, let’s examine where smart money is leaning for two of tonight’s biggest College Basketball games.
7 p.m. ET: Florida at Alabama (-8.5, 174)
Florida (18-7, ranked 24th) has won three straight games and just edged Georgia 88-82. Similarly, Alabama (18-7, ranked 13th) has won six of their last seven games and just crushed Texas A&M 100-75. This line opened with Alabama listed as a 7.5-point home favorite. The public sees two ranked teams and a relatively large spread and doesn’t know which way to go. Sure, Alabama is at home and they’re the higher ranked team. But it also feels like a lot of points to give Florida. However, despite the tickets being split down the middle with 50% of spread bets on both sides we’ve seen Alabama rise from -7.5 to -8.5. In a vacuum, a line shouldn’t move at all if the bets are even as, theoretically, the oddsmakers have no reason to shift the price. However, we know that not all tickets are created equally, as some come from public bettors risking 5-bucks per game while others come from pros making “dime” wagers ($1,000). Reading between the lines, we can discern based on the 50/50 move that the bigger, sharper and more respected wagers are laying the points with Alabama at home. Alabama has several key advantages in this matchup, most notably on offense. Alabama ranks 1st in the nation in terms of offensive efficiency, averaging 90 PPG. Alabama also has the far better effective field goal percentage (58% vs 51%), three-point percentage (39% vs 34%) and free-throw percentage (79% vs 69%). Ken Pom has Alabama winning by nine points (93-84). Alabama has correlative betting value as a favorite in a high total game, as the more expected points scored makes it easier for the favorite to cover the number. When two ranked teams face off, the home favorite in 22-11 ATS (67%) this season. Alabama is 12-1 at home while Florida is 3-4 on the road.
10 p.m. ET: Colorado State at New Mexico (-7, 157)
Colorado State (20-6, ranked 22nd) has won five of their last six games and just crushed Utah State 75-55. On the flip side, New Mexico (20-6) has rotated wins and losses over their past five games and just fell to San Diego State 81-70. This line opened with New Mexico listed as a 5.5-point home favorite. Right off the bat, this opening line speaks volumes. Why is New Mexico such a big favorite if they are unranked, just got blown out and are now facing a ranked team? If it smells fishy or doesn’t make sense, there is usually a reason for it. Once again, we are looking at a 50/50 bet split where the public doesn’t know whether to take the point or lay them. But pros have taken a position on New Mexico, steaming the Lobos up from -5.5 to -7. New Mexico is only receiving 50% of spread bets but 81% of spread dollars, further evidence of the sharper wiseguy wagers backing the fishy home favorite in a “low bets, higher dollars” bet discrepancy. New Mexico has the better offensive efficiency (31st vs 33rd), better defensive efficiency (30th vs 34th) and a big edge in terms of offensive rebound percentage (33% vs 24%). New Mexico is averaging 39 RPG compared to 33 RPG for Colorado State. New Mexico is also in a buy-low, sell-high spot as they have been shaky recently while Colorado State has won five of their last six. Unranked home favorites vs ranked opponents are 55-35 ATS (61%) since the start of last season. New Mexico is 11-2 at home while Colorado State is 3-5 on the road. New Mexico has a one-day rest advantage, having last played on Friday while Colorado State played on Saturday. This is also a revenge spot for New Mexico, who lost to Colorado State 76-68 on the road back in early January.
