Today we have a pair of NIT semifinal College Basketball games to get down on. You can track the latest odds and betting percentages for both matchups using our VSiN Betting Splits.
In the meantime, let’s examine where smart money is leaning for tonight’s NIT doubleheader.
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7 p.m. ET: Utah vs Indiana State (-3.5, 162.5)
This NIT semifinal will be played at Hinkle Fieldhouse in Indianapolis, Indiana, home of the Butler Bulldogs. Utah (22-14) just crushed VCU 74-54 in the quarterfinal. Meanwhile, Indiana State (31-6) just outlasted Cincinnati 85-81 in the quarterfinal. This line opened with Indiana State listed as a 2.5-point neutral site favorite. Early sharp money laid the points with Indiana State, steaming the Sycamores up from -2.5 to -3.5. However, now that we’ve moved a full point off the opener we are starting to see some inflated Utah +3.5 buyback, with some books hinting a drop back down to +3. The public is all over Indiana State, who is receiving 75% of spread bets. This creates contrarian value to buy low on Utah, who is only receiving 25% of spread bets but 35% of spread dollars, a modest “low bets, higher dollars” sharp split. Utah has the better defensive efficiency (36th vs 109th) and better offensive rebound percentage (28% vs 24%). Ken Pom has Indiana State winning by just one point (84-83), which provides actionable value on Utah at the current price (+3.5). He also has Indiana State ranked only slightly higher (42nd vs 46th). Utah has a size advantage, boasting a pair of 7-footers in their starting lineup while Indiana State’s two tallest starters are 6’10” and 6’8”. Sharps have also hit the under, dropping the total from 165 to 163. The under is receiving 71% of bets and 74% of dollars, signaling heavy support from both sharps and the betting public.
9:30 p.m. ET: Georgia vs Seton Hall (-4.5, 145.5)
This NIT semifinal will be played at Hinkle Fieldhouse in Indianapolis, Indiana, home of the Butler Bulldogs. Georgia (20-16) just upset Ohio State 79-77 in the quarterfinal. On the flip side, Seton Hall (23-12) just crushed UNLV 91-68 in the quarterfinal. This line opened with Seton Hall listed as a 4-point neutral site favorite. Sharps seem to have thought this opener was a bit short and they’ve driven Seton Hall up from -4 to -4.5. Seton Hall is receiving 64% of spread bets and 88% of spread dollars, a notable “low bets, higher dollars” sharp bet discrepancy. Seton Hall has the better offensive efficiency (74th vs 105th), better defensive efficiency (44th vs 51st), better offensive rebound percentage (36% vs 27%) and better free-throw shooting (78% vs 72%). Ken Pom has Seton Hall winning by three points (75-72). He also has Seton Hall ranked higher (57th vs 78th). Those looking to follow the sharp Seton Hall move but wary of laying the points in what might be a one-possession game could instead target the Pirates on the moneyline at -185. Seton Hall has the edge in terms of experience as all five of their starters are seniors while Georgia features three freshmen in their starting lineup. Sharps have also leaned over here, raising the total from 144.5 to 145.5. The over is receiving 56% of bets and 60% of dollars, indicating modest public support but also respected sharp action.
