Big 12
The Big 12 will look different this season, as Oklahoma and Texas are out while Arizona, Arizona State, Colorado and Utah are in.
Houston claimed the regular season title last year, while Iowa State won the conference tournament. Both are expected to be great again, and Kansas will be a contender. Bill Self’s team has boasted the best record in the conference for two of the last three seasons, and has won at least a share of the regular season conference crown eight times since 2014. However, some of the new blood in the conference will threaten at the top, and that especially applies to Arizona. The Wildcats were the regular season champs in the Pac-12 six times since the start of the 2013-14 season.
This year, the cream of the crop will be Kansas, Houston, Iowa State, Arizona and Baylor.
Injuries ravaged Kansas last year, but the Jayhawks should get back to being a top-10 team. Dajuan Harris, one of the best floor generals in basketball, is back, and so are studs KJ Adams and Hunter Dickinson. Self also landed two huge transfers as South Dakota State’s Zeke Mayo and Wisconsin’s AJ Storr are heading to Lawrence.
Houston has won at least 27 games in six of the last seven seasons. The Cougars were KenPom’s second-ranked team in net rating last year, and they’ll be a powerhouse as long as Kelvin Sampson is on the sidelines. Iowa State, led by T.J. Otzelberger, returns four of the best players from last year’s team, which was first in the nation in defensive rating. The Cyclones also added Charlotte’s Dishon Jackson after the big man averaged 11.4 points and 6.1 rebounds per game a year ago.
Arizona has won at least 27 games in all three years under Tommy Lloyd, and this year’s team is loaded. Caleb Love was the Pac-12 Player of the Year last year, and he’s back and ready to rock. The Wildcats could also have a breakout star in Motiejus Krivas. Lloyd added two awesome transfers in Campbell’s Anthony Dell’Orso and Oakland’s Trey Townsend. Baylor will also be tough this year, with Scott Drew returning after flirting with the Kentucky gig. Drew added two stars in the portal as he landed Duke’s Jeremy Roach and Miami’s Norchad Omier. However, the go-to guy will be five-star wing VJ Edgecombe, who looks like a top-10 pick in the 2025 NBA Draft.
The other teams with potential are Arizona State, Texas Tech, BYU, Kansas State and Cincinnati. Less should be expected of West Virginia, TCU, Utah, UCF, Colorado and Oklahoma State.
Arizona
Lloyd has done a decent job at Arizona, but fans are desperate for postseason success. Will this be the year the Wildcats make a run in the NCAA Tournament? Last year, Arizona was 11th in offensive rating and 10th in defensive rating. The group was excellent on both ends of the floor, and there’s no reason this team can’t be similar. Caleb Love, who averaged 18.0 points per game last season, should be one of the best players in the country. He’ll be joined in the backcourt by Jaden Bradley, who is ready for a bigger role.
At the forward spots, transfers Anthony Dell’Orso, a microwave scorer, and Trey Townsend, a do-it-all power forward that led Oakland to a win over Kentucky, should be instant-impact players. KJ Lewis could also have a breakout season. And center Motiejus Krivasis is a mountain of a man with real skills. People have wanted Oumar Ballo to transfer so that Krivasis can play more. The Wildcats also have some highly-touted recruits, with Carter Bryant being the most exciting this year.
This is a very talented group that has what it takes to disrupt in the Big 12, and there’s no reason Arizona can’t be a Final Four team. But people need to see it to believe it.
Arizona State
If you’re looking for a long shot to win the conference, Arizona State could be the play. The Sun Devils are going to be young, but they’re also extremely talented. Bobby Hurley has highly regarded freshmen on this roster, as he grabbed five-star center Jayden Quaintance from Kentucky and also stole guard Joson Sanon from Arizona. Both players have a world of potential, and it also sounds like four-star wing Amier Ali will be a player this season.
On top of having all the kids, Hurley also added some good transfers in Missouri State’s Alston Mason, UW Milwaukee’s BJ Freeman and Ball State’s Basheer Jihad. All of them were insanely productive at their previous spots. In fact, Freeman averaged 21.1 points per game for the Panther and could have a pro future. Arizona State is also expecting a good season out of Adam Miller, who averaged 12.0 points per game last year.
Realistically, this team is as talented as any in the conference. Hurley just needs to piece it all together. However, his job is probably riding on doing so, as he has had an up-and-down run in Tempe.
Baylor
Little stands in the way of Baylor being an elite team again. Baylor has been in the top 20 in KenPom’s efficiency rankings in five straight years. Scott Drew is one of the best coaches on the planet, so it was huge that he turned down the Kentucky job and stayed at Baylor. Drew also reloaded his team, adding Duke’s Jeremy Roach and Miami’s Norchad Omier through the portal. Roach is one of the best point guards in the nation, and Omier is a double-double machine. Roach, Omier and five-star freshman VJ Edgecombe could make up the best trio in the conference. Edgecombe balled out against professionals for the Bahamian national team in Olympic qualifying. He’s a lottery-level talent and will be a stud from Day 1.
Returning starter Jayden Nunn is also a rock-solid player, and Langston Love will start this year after averaging 11.0 points and 2.9 rebounds per game last year. Also, look for Cal transfer Jalen Celestine to make an impact off the bench after shooting 44.0% from 3 last season.
BYU
BYU hired Phoenix Suns assistant Kevin Young as the program’s new head coach. Young was viewed as one of the best offensive assistants in the NBA, and it sounds like BYU is going to give him a lot of money to go after high-level recruits. So, this is a program to keep an eye on. This year, Young has a decent team. Two of last year’s top three scorers, Fousseyni Traore and Trevin Knell, are back. Knell is an elite shooter. The Cougars also get back starter Dallin Hall, who is a good player at point. Richie Saunders also returns after averaging 9.6 points per game last year. And Mawot Mag, who averaged 9.1 points, 3.8 rebounds and 1.2 steals per game for Rutgers last year, should be a starter.
Young also has a potential lottery pick in freshman Egor Demin, a 6-foot-9 wing that can do everything out there. There’s also some other young talents like Elijah Crawford, Kanon Catchings, Khadim Mboup and Brody Kozlowski. Last year, BYU ranked 14th in the nation in offensive rating and 60th in defensive rating. This year’s team should have a good statistical profile, and the group will be less reliant on the 3. That could mean a higher floor.
Cincinnati
Wes Miller is 63-43 in three years with Cincinnati, but the Bearcats went 7-11 in conference play in their first year in the Big 12. And while Miller is undoubtedly a solid coach, this feels like a program that could struggle with so many talented new teams in the conference.
Cincinnati will be hoping that Dan Skillings Jr., last year’s leading scorer at 12.9 points per game, can build on an awesome second half of last season. The Bearcats also have other key contributors back from last year, including Simas Lukosius, Day Day Thomas and Aziz Bandaogo. Miller also added a proven two-way player in Texas transfer Dillon Mitchell, who averaged 9.6 points, 7.5 rebounds, 1.0 steals and 0.9 blocks per game last year. It’ll also be interesting to see what CJ Fredrick Jr., a sniper from deep, can do now that he’s healthy. And shooter Connor Hickman, who played for Bradley last year, should also be a rotation piece.
The Bearcats were 19th in the country in defensive rating last year, and this year’s group could be even better. But Miller needs more from his team offensively. Maybe the transfers can help.
Colorado
Colorado went 26-11 last season and was 24th in KenPom’s efficiency rankings. Tad Boyle’s team also made it to the NCAA Tournament, beating Boise State in the First Four and Florida in the first round. The Buffaloes also played a good game against second-seeded Marquette in the Round of 32. The problem is that Colorado lost Tristan da Silva, KJ Simpson and Cody Williams to the NBA Draft. And J’Vonne Hadley, Eddie Lampkin and Luke O’Brien all transferred. That’s a lot of talent out the door, so this could be a trying year.
The only returning starter from last year’s team is Julian Hammond III, who averaged 7.4 points per game last season. New faces will make up the rest of the rotation. Freshman Andrew Crawford, a four-star recruit, will see big minutes immediately. Then, it’ll likely be Washington State transfer Andrej Jakimovski, DII Colorado Mesa transfer Trevor Baskin and Grace College transfer Elijah Malone rounding out the starting five. The team has high hopes for Baskin and Malone, who dominated at lower levels.
Houston
Houston plays a pretty old-school brand of basketball on offense, but the team defends the 3-point line like there’s no tomorrow. Opponents shot just 30.1% from 3 against the Cougars last year, and they also had the 11th-best 2PT% defense in the nation. Kelvin Sampson has built a defensive juggernaut in Houston, and this year’s team should be a bit better than last year’s offensively.
L.J. Cryer, Emanuel Sharp and J’Wan Roberts, three of the four best scorers from last year’s team, are back. Cryer averaged 15.5 points per game and should be an All-American candidate. Sampson is also hoping that Oklahoma transfer Milos Uzan can fill in for Jamal Shead, who was the heart and soul of last year’s team. Terrance Arceneaux also feels like a player that is due for a big leap, as he’s a very talented wing. And there should be some growth from within from several other players.
All in all, Sampson has eight of the 10 players that averaged double digits in minutes back from last year. So, this should be an elite team with a championship ceiling.
Iowa State
Four of last year’s most important pieces are back for Iowa State, as Keshon Gilbert, Tamin Lipsey, Curtis Jones and Milan Momcilovic all return. Gilbert, Lipsey and Jones are all capable of being the best guard on the floor on any given night, and another year in T.J. Otzelberger’s system should help the Cyclones break into the top 25 in offensive rating. When considering that this team was first in defensive rating last season, this is going to be a scary group.
It’ll just be interesting to see what some of the other Iowa State rotation players are able to provide. Dishon Jackson, a transfer from Charlotte, has a massive body and a good feel for the game. He should end up being the starting center for the Cyclones, who can use a legit inside presence. Northern Iowa transfer Nate Heise could also help the rotation, as he has proven to be a productive player. Iowa State also has an intriguing young guy in Nojus Indrusaitis, a four-star guard.
Kansas
Last year didn’t go as planned for Kansas. The Jayhawks lost some games they normally never lose, and they got crushed by the injury bug. By the time the NCAA Tournament rolled around, the team’s depth was decimated. But this year’s team has the goods, making another Big 12 championship and extended March run possible for Bill Self. Little stands in the way of Baylor being an elite team again. Baylor has been in the top 20 in KenPom’s efficiency rankings in five straight years.
The Jayhawks have a bunch of great returners, as Dajuan Harris Jr., the Big 12 Defensive Player of the Year in 2023 and an awesome floor general on offense, is joined by KJ Adams Jr. and Dickinson. That’s an elite point guard and two players that should make up one of the best frontcourts in the nation. Self also added Zeke Mayo, who averaged 18.8 points per game for South Dakota State last year, and AJ Storr, who averaged 16.8 points per game for Wisconsin. Those were two of the best players in the portal. Alabama’s Rylan Griffin is another transfer addition that will contribute right away. The Jayhawks also happen to have some exciting youngsters to develop, with Rakease Passmore and Flory Bidunga being prized recruits.
Kansas State
In Jerome Tang’s first season in Manhattan, the Wildcats went 26-10 overall and 11-7 in conference. They were also 21st in KenPom’s efficiency rankings, finishing 37th in offensive rating and 27th in defensive rating. Last year, things fell apart. Kansas State went 19-15 overall and 8-10 in conference. The Wildcats were just 70th in KenPom’s efficiency rankings, and a 139th-ranked offense was the reason. Things should get a little better in Year 3.
Tang was able to convince Michigan point guard Dug McDaniel to join the squad. McDaniel should instantly be one of the best guards in the conference, and having a player that good at an important position can mean the world. Another massive portal addition for the Wildcats was Illinois big man Coleman Hawkins. The 6-foot-10 forward has had an up-and-down college career, but he can space the floor and has always had an intriguing skill set. The rest of the starting five is also made of transfers, with Cal State Fullerton’s Max Jones, Illinois Chicago’s C.J. Jones and Samford’s Achor Achor all likely to start. It’s not clear how some of those players will handle the jump in competition, but McDaniel and Hawkins can play anywhere, so Tang should be able to make this work.
Oklahoma State
There isn’t a team with longer odds to win the conference than this one. New head coach Steve Lutz has been to the NCAA Tournament in each of the last three years, getting there twice with Texas A&M-Corpus Christi and then taking Western Kentucky there in his lone season with the team. So, Lutz is a coach that has gotten the job done and expects to win games. But this is going to be a bit of a project. Maybe the Pokes will be a good ATS team this season, as Lutz is genuinely a good coach. But he needs time to stockpile talent and put his system in place.
Bryce Thompson, who started his career at Kansas, has been a double-digit scorer for Oklahoma State in each of the last three years. He’ll be expected to lead this group, and La Salle transfer Khalil Brantley and Arkansas transfer Devo Davis will help. Brantley averaged 15.0 points per game last season, and Davis averaged 10.9 points per game two years ago. So, there is some firepower on the perimeter. However, this Cowboys team lacks size and toughness in the frontcourt and that significantly limits this group’s upside.
TCU
TCU went 21-13 and 9-9 in Big 12 play last season. The Horned Frogs were also a top-45 team in both offensive and defensive rating. Jamie Dixon has now won at least 21 games in each of the last three seasons, and he has also done so in six of his eight years with TCU. One thing to like about this year’s squad is the backcourt. Arizona State transfer Frankie Collins averaged 13.8 points, 4.4 rebounds, 3.2 assists and 2.6 steals per game last year. He’s a good scorer and a feisty competitor. Joining him is Green Bay transfer Noah Reynolds, who averaged 20.0 points and 4.5 assists per game last year. Reynolds has good size, is highly skilled and knows how to play the game.
Dixon will also be counting on Wyoming transfer Brendan Wenzel, a very good 3-point shooter, UNC Wilmington transfer Trazarien White, who averaged 19.8 points and 6.8 rebounds last year, and Ernest Udeh, a big man that started his career at Kansas and showed promise with TCU last year. This is a team that is more talented than it looks on paper. There’s probably not much upside, but this could be a tournament team.
Texas Tech
Grant McCasland is trying to change the perception of this Texas Tech program. Once known as a defensive-minded team, the Red Raiders were 27th in offensive rating in McCasland’s first year with the school. He significantly upped the team’s 3-point rate, and he has the Red Raiders playing some modern basketball. Now, McCasland is going to try and turn this program into a Big 12 contender. The betting odds suggest Tech isn’t close to really competing, but it’d be a mistake to count this group out. Realistically, this team can beat anybody in the conference, and it’s the type of roster that can get hot in the NCAA Tournament.
The best returning player on the team is forward Darrion Williams, who averaged 11.4 points, 7.5 rebounds and 1.2 steals per game last season. He also shot 45.8% from deep. Guard Chance McMillian, who averaged 10.8 points per game, is also back. McCasland is looking to Minnesota transfer Elijah Hawkins, New Mexico transfer JT Toppin and Pittsburgh transfer Federiko Federiko (yup) to round out the starting five. Hawkins is one of the best passers in the nation, and Toppin is a strong, athletic forward with a high motor.
UCF
UCF was 21st in the nation in defensive rating last year, but the Knights were just 148th in offensive rating. The season ended with UCF at 17-16 overall and 7-11 in conference play. Johnny Dawkins is now hoping to figure out the offense, as doing so could mean an appearance in the NCAA Tournament.
Getting Jaylin Sellers, last year’s leading scorer, back is a good start. Sellers will be joined by Darius Johnson in the backcourt. Johnson was right behind Sellers in scoring, but the point guard led the team in assists too. This is going to be a very strong group of guards, especially with UTSA transfer Jordan Ivy-Curry coming over after averaging 17.1 points per game last year. And George Mason transfer Keyshawn Hall should add firepower on the wing after averaging 16.6 points and 8.1 rebounds per game last season. In the frontcourt, Dawkins is hoping that a new situation can bring the best out of Syracuse transfer Benny Williams, a former high-level recruit with loads of talent. And Moustapha Thiam, a 7-foot-2 center that was 30th in the 2024 ESPN 100, could start at center. If Thiam can be productive right away, the Knights are going to be tough this season.
Utah
This team was top 50 in offensive and defensive rating last year. Let’s see if that’s sustainable. Losing Branden Carlson, one of the best centers in the country, is going to hurt. But the team is hoping that Lawson Lovering is up for the challenge of replacing him. Lovering is 7-foot-1 and did some good things in his 18.4 minutes per game last year. Head coach Craig Smith has praised him for his growth in the offseason. Ezra Ausar, a 6-foot-9 forward that averaged 11.4 points and 4.7 rebounds per game for ECU last year, will join him in the frontcourt.
In the backcourt, Utah will be counting on the Madsen twins. Gabe Madsen, who averaged 13.6 points and shot 38.6% from 3 last year, is back to start at point guard. But his brother Mason transferred in from Boston College after averaging 8.1 points on 37.7% shooting from deep. With those two and San Francisco transfer Mike Sharavjamts in the mix, Smith’s team has an intriguing group on the perimeter.
West Virginia
Head coach Darian DeVries and his son Tucker DeVries did great things at Drake, but how will it look in the big leagues? And can Darian get it done without a single returning rotation player from last year’s Mountaineers roster? Tucker should immediately be one of the best players in the conference. He averaged 21.6 points, 6.7 rebounds, 3.7 assists and 1.6 steals per game last year, and he’s a two-time Missouri Valley Player of the Year. There’s no reason his game can’t translate, as he’s 6-foot-7, can shoot the cover off the ball and has great feel for the game.
The other starters will seemingly be Oklahoma State’s Javon Small, Detroit Mercy’s Jayden Stone, Illinois Chicago’s Toby Okani and Fresno State’s Eduardo Andre. Darian has also talked up Illinois transfer Amani Hansberry. Small was highly productive for the Cowboys, so we know he can play at this level. The others have more question marks, but Stone is going to be a fun one to watch. He averaged 20.8 points per game last year.
It’s hard to expect much from a team that was pieced together like this, but there’s talent here and Darian can coach.
