Big Ten
Despite losing literally the biggest player in the conference, with the two-time consensus National Player of the Year 7-foot-4 Zach Edey now gone from Purdue and into the NBA, the “B1G” only gets bigger with 18 teams as Oregon, UCLA, USC, and Washington enter the fray.
Perhaps with four new programs in the league, the Big Ten can win a National Championship for the first time since Michigan State did it in 2000 (Maryland won in 2002 as a member of the ACC). Purdue (first Final Four since 1980) reached the National Championship game and was the first program in the conference to make Monday night since Michigan in 2018. Alas, the Boilermakers fell short to UConn and the title drought continues for the conference.
Of the four newbies, only UCLA, off a rare losing season (16-17), is expected to challenge atop the league. Oregon (15/1 to win Big Ten), loses its top two scorers, but is loaded with veteran transfers.
At Washington (100/1), Danny Sprinkle has made the NCAA Tournament three straight seasons – twice at Montana State and last year at Utah State – takes over. Eric Musselman brings the Muss Bus to USC (40/1) after a tumultuous final season at Arkansas.
Aside from Sprinkle and Musselman, there are two other first-year head coaches in the conference as Jake Diebler became the interim coach replacing a fired Chris Holtmann on Valentine’s Day last season and went 8-3 to earn the full-time gig at Ohio State (10/1). After leading FAU to a Final Four two years ago, Dusty May finally moves to a high-major job but not to his alma mater at Indiana, as he takes over at Michigan (12/1).
Unlike last season, when Matt Painter and Purdue returned five starters from a No. 1 seed team, this season there is no clear-cut favorite in the B1G. The Boilers (4/1) are favorites once again and return their starting backcourt but will have to play differently without Edey. The fans in Bloomington are getting a bit restless, but Mike Woodson may have his best team in four years at Indiana (6/1).
Just below the two Hoosier state teams, Michigan State (6/1) ,UCLA (7/1), and Illinois (9/1) also have odds in single-digits to win the conference.
Illinois Fighting Illini
Behind the nation’s No. 3 adjusted offensive efficiency per KenPom, Illinois made it to the Elite Eight before being one the six victims of UConn. This year, the Illini only returns 9.7% of their scoring, which led the conference last season (83.4 PPG).
The scoring will be down for Brad Underwood’s bunch, but there is still talent here and likely to be even more in the future with certified ‘dude-getter’ Orlando Antigua (multiple stints with Calipari at Kentucky) back as associate head coach. Ty Rodgers (6.2 PPG, 5.3 RPG) is the lone returning starter on the wing, but he has company with 10 new players on the roster including point guard and Champaign native Kylan Boswell (9.6 PPG, 3.6 APG, Arizona) along with Tre White (Louisville), Jake Davis (Mercer), and the returning Dra-Gibbs Lawhorn.
Antigua has already paid dividends luring five-star freshman forward Will Riley and 7-2 Croatian big Tomislav Ivisic, the twin brother of Arkansas’ Zvonimir Ivisic, and Lithuanian lead guard Kasparas Jakucionis, a projected first-round pick next year. Evansville grad transfer Ben Humricious averaged 15 a game last season and is a sharp-shooter. Scoring will be down for this group, but there is quality depth that should get better as the season progresses.
Indiana Hoosiers
The Hoosiers missed the NCAA Tournament last year for the first time in Mike Woodson’s three years and there is more than just some chatter regarding Woodson’s job status. This is a potential make or break year and Indiana took its robust NIL and went heavy into the portal.
Three starters come to Bloomington from the Pac-12, including two first-team all-conference players in Arizona C Oumar Ballo and Washington State PG Myles Rice, who finally gives Indiana a legitimate point guard they lacked last season. Kanaan Carlyle (Stanford) is Rice’s backcourt running mate, so Indiana is deeper with these two, plus Trey Galloway (10.6 PPG, 4.4 APG) who played out of position at the point. With Ballo manning the paint, Malik Reneau (15.4 PPG, 6 RPG) and Mackenzie Mgbako (12.2 PPG, 4.1 RPG) will be asked to stretch the floor.
Rumors are out there that Indiana will finally quicken the tempo offensively and play a more modern-style of basketball. Last year, the Hoosiers ranked 350th out of 362 D-1 teams with just 5.03 made 3s per game (dead last among major conference teams). Indiana has not made a second weekend in the NCAA Tournament nor won the Big Ten since 2016 and that is the expectation this season.
Iowa Hawkeyes
The Hawkeyes streak of six consecutive NCAA Tournament bids ended last season. The streak of Fran McCaffery having one of his sons play for him is also over, as Patrick transferred to finish up his career at Butler and his youngest son, Jack, also committed there for next season.
Nevertheless, McCaffery claims this year’s Iowa team is one of his deepest in his 15th season in Iowa City. It all starts with Payton Sandfort (16.4 PPG, 6.6 RPG), who passed on the NBA Draft over the summer after leading the Big Ten with 94 made 3s. Josh Dix (8.9 PPG, 42.1% 3P%) and Brock Harding return, while Drew Thelwell (Morehead State) comes in. Big man Owen Freeman (10.6 PPG, 6.6 RPG, 3.1 blocks per 40 minutes) shared Big Ten Freshman of the Year honors and Iowa added some depth, including Manhattan transfer Seydou Traore (11.8 PPG, 8.2 RPG).
Iowa will always be able to shoot and score the ball (2nd in conference – 83.1 PPG) but they reverted back to poor defense last season (105.4 points/100 possessions – worst since 2017-18). McCaffery just turned 65 and appears to be done coaching his sons, so there is a possibility that this is his swan song in Iowa City.
Maryland Terrapins
Kevin Willard’s bunch was an excellent defensive team last season, leading the league in scoring defense (65.9 PPG) but they could not throw a pea in the Atlantic Ocean as they rated 320th nationally in shooting percentage (41.3%) and even worse from the 3 (28.9% – 340th).
To solve the Terps shooting woes, Willard hit the portal to bring in Selton Miguel (39% 3P%, South Florida), Rodney Rice, who played locally at DeMatha, but was injured for the better part of the last two seasons at Virginia Tech, and Ja’Kobi Gillespie (39% 3P% at Belmont). Loyola Marymount transfer Chance Stephens shot 37% from 3 two seasons ago. McDonald’s All-American Derik Queen, originally from Baltimore, picked Maryland over Indiana and will see immediate minutes down low and should provide a good 1-2 punch with Julian Reese (13.7 PPG, 9.5 RPG, 60 blocks).
Maryland will still be one of the best defensive teams in the conference, but will be in a lot of grinders and close games (9 losses last year by five points or less vs. just one win) and the backcourt is not yet good enough.
Michigan Wolverines
Juwan Howard is a Michigan basketball legend, but the Wolverines went 8-24 and he was rightfully dismissed. Enter Dusty May, who was arguably one of college basketball’s hottest young coaches just two seasons removed from taking FAU to the Final Four.
May did not waste any time adding nine scholarship players – six transfers and three freshmen. Vladislav Goldin (15.7 PPG, 6.9 RPG at FAU) came with May from Boca Raton and Yale transfer Danny Wolf are a couple of seven-footers added to the lineup and Alabama stretch forward Sam Walters joins up front.
The primary question for May is who will be his PG. Great passer Tre Donaldson (Auburn) and defensive stopper Rubin Jones (North Texas) may split duties. Freshmen Justin Pippen, son of Scottie, and L.J. Cason, a May signee at FAU, will also see time. Michigan was dead last in the conference and 336th nationally in turnover margin, so they should improve in that regard. Roddy Gayle Jr. (Ohio State) joins returnees Nimari Burnett and Michigan Mr. Basketball Durral Brooks for more depth.
After posting their worst record since 1960-61, the Wolverines will likely be the most improved team in the conference and will at least be on the NCAA Tournament bubble in May’s first season.
Michigan State Spartans
After losing four starters from a second-round NCAA Tournament team, Michigan State took a trip to Spain this summer to acclimate three new freshmen and two rare transfer portal additions to the roster.
Jaden Akins (10.4 PPG, 3.9 RPG) returns on the wing as the only remaining starter from last year’s group. Tre Holloman (5.7 PPG, 2.4 APG, 42.5% 3P%) also returns to play both guard spots, but Jeremy Fears Jr. (3.5 PPG, 3.3 APG), who missed most of last season, inherits the PG spot. Freshmen Kur Teng and Jase Richardson, son of former Spartans star Jason Richardson, will also see time for a club that needs to shoot the 3 more often (30.4% 3P Rate, 324th).
When you have been the head coach of a program for 30 years like Tom Izzo, you tend to get set in your ways when it comes to things like transfer portal. Frankie Fidler (20.1 PPG, 6.3 RPG, Omaha) and he arrived in East Lansing with 7-footer Szymon Zapata (9.8 PPG, 5.6 RPG, Longwood).
Perhaps Michigan State has reached its peak under Izzo, as they have not been better than a 7 seed over the last four years in the NCAA Tournament. However, it is still tough to discount a coach that has reached eight Final Fours.
Minnesota Golden Gophers
The Golden Gophers played postseason basketball (NIT) for the first time since 2019 and had some positive momentum going forward, but now Ben Johnson is rebuilding again as six players left the program.
Dawson Garcia (17.5 PPG, 6.7 RPG) is the top returning scorer in the Big Ten and can play the 4 or the 5. Johnson would like him to play more inside-outside with him and may be able to do that with the addition of Canisius transfer Frank Mitchell (12.1 PPG, 11.6 RPG) who posted 15 double-doubles last season and ranked Top 10 nationally for both offensive and defensive rebounding rate per KenPom.
Mike Mitchell Jr. (10.2 PPG, 2.8 APG) shot over 40% from 3 last year, but may have to play out of position a bit and share PG duties. Well-traveled Femi Odukale can play multiple positions. Tyler Cochran was the co-MAC Defensive Player of the Year at Toledo. Lu’Cye Patterson (Charlotte), Brennan Rigsby (Oregon), and Caleb Williams (D3) also come in to provide depth.
Minnesota is older but are they necessarily better? They finally got out of the Big Ten cellar last year after residing there in Johnson’s first two seasons, but they likely find themselves in that all too familiar position once again.
Nebraska Cornhuskers
It was a triumphant year for ‘Nebraskatball”, as the Huskers returned to the NCAA Tournament for the first time in a decade and had its best record (23-11) in well over three decades. Fred Hoiberg has finally found players to fit his system and has adjusted to a more half-court, physical game in the Big Ten.
Unfortunately, he will have to do it this year without big man Rienk Mast, who is redshirting due to knee surgery. North Dakota State transfer Andrew Morgan (12.9 PPG, 5 RPG) will look to replace the lost offensive production and Washington transfer Braxton Meah (77 blocks L2Y) will look to do the same defensively. Double-figure scorers Brice WIlliams (13.4 PPG, 5.5 RPG) and Juwan Gary (11.6 PPG, 6.1 RPG) are returning veteran leaders for a mostly new team.
Nebraska has been searching for a true PG and may have found one with Rollie Worster. Utah was an NCAA Tournament team with Worster, as they were 12-4 with him, but only 10-11 without him when he was out for the season with a leg injury.
Hoiberg was able to figure out his rotations last year but this team could struggle early and then get better late in the season to make its way toward the NCAA Tournament bubble.
Northwestern Wildcats
The Wildcats once again reached the NCAA Tournament and did so in consecutive seasons for the first time in program history. Now they must try to three-peat without Boo Buie, the program’s all-time leading scorer. Despite the loss of arguably the greatest player in Northwestern basketball history, the ‘Cats bring back the most minutes production (62.4%) and the fourth-most offensive production (55.4%) in the league.
Northwestern shot 39% as a team from 3. They should come close to that again with Brooks Barnhizer (14.6 PPG, 7.5 RPG, 35% 3P%) and Ty Berry (11.8 PPG, 43.3% 3P%). Berry and Matthew Nicholson (5.3 PPG, 4.3 RPG) suffered late-season injuries. Both are back and Nicholson will get help down low from Nick Martinelli (8.8 PPG, 4.3 RPG), who could be the breakout player for Northwestern this season. Jalen Leach (16.2 PPG, 4.1 RPG, 3 APG, Fairfield) will attempt to take Buie’s place running the offense.
Aside from Buie’s scoring and ball handling, Northwestern returned to the NCAA Tournament largely due to its defense which led the conference in turnover margin (+3.59). They will be a tough out night after night in the Big Ten, but the loss of Buie may be too much to ask for the Wildcats to make a third straight NCAA Tournament appearance.
Ohio State Buckeyes
Jake Diebler took over as interim coach on Valentine’s Day after Chris Holtmann was fired. He made a great first impression knocking off No. 2 Purdue and finished the season 8-3, which was good enough to have the interim tag removed.
PG Bruce Thornton (15.7 PPG, 4.8 APG) was second in the nation for assist-to-turnover ratio (4.0). He has some much-needed company in the backcourt with Meechie Johnson (14.1 PPG, 2.9 APG), a Cleveland native who was with the Buckeyes program in 2022 before playing at South Carolina the last two years, and Micah Parrish (San Diego State). Devin Royal (4.7 PPG, 2.4 RPG) is the lone returner in the frontcourt where Diebler hit the portal to find 7-foot-1 Aaron Bradshaw from Kentucky and Sean Stewart from Duke. Both were McDonald’s All-Americans two years ago.
The Buckeyes have failed to make the NCAA Tournament in each of the last two seasons, but should find their way back into the field of 68. Thornton is a big-time leader and clutch player that will win a couple games on his own, but Ohio State will be a legitimate Big Ten dark horse if Bradshaw and Stewart can live up to their prep accolades.
Oregon Ducks
The Ducks were arguably on the bubble last year and won the Pac-12 Tournament. In the NCAA Tournament, they upset South Carolina before falling to Creighton in double overtime. Jermaine Couisnard and N’Faly Dante combined for 123 of the Ducks 160 points in the tourney. Both are gone, but a strong core returns for Dana Altman.
Jackson Shelstad (12.8 PPG, 2.8 RPG) ended up being the standout of last year’s freshmen group. Jadrian Tracey (7.6 PPG, 3.6 RPG) began starting in January, replacing the injured Keeshawn Barthelemy (7.9 PPG, 2.3 APG). Newcomers to the backcourt include Ra’Heim Moss (Toledo), T. J, Bamba (Villanova), and four-star freshman Jamari Phillips.
Oregon was denied an NCAA waiver for Dante, so 7-footer Nate Bittle (10 PPG, 4.4 RPG) is the primary post presence after playing just five games last year. Sophomore Kwame Evans Jr. (7.3 PPG, 4.9 RPG) was a five-star McDonald’s All-American. Brandon Angel (13 PPG, 4.7 RPG, 44.7%, Stanford) and Supreme Cook (8 RPG, Georgetown) transferred in.
Altman’s program is older and that is needed to survive the physical rigors of the conference. Oregon is likely not a Big Ten title contender in the first year, but should likely earn an NCAA Tournament bid in its first season in new surroundings.
Penn State Nittany Lions
The Nittany Lions went one game under .500 in Mike Rhoades first season in State College, which is respectable considering it was almost a complete roster makeover and because this is the toughest job in the conference. Three starters and two other contributors return for 61 percent of the total minutes.
Ace Baldwin Jr. (14.2 PPG, 6 APG, 2.7 RPG) came with Rhoades from VCU last year and is the key cog in the “Havoc” pressure defense that forced opponents to turn the ball on 20.3% of their possessions (23rd nationally). However, Penn State needs better than 32.9% from 3. The team’s other biggest deficiency is rebounding, as they ranked dead last in the conference and 324th nationally in rebounding margin (-4.6), so Rhoades brings in some size with 7-footer Yanic Konan Niederhauser (Northern Illinois), 6-foot-11 freshman Miles Goodman, and Kachi Nzeh (Xavier).
The Nittany Lions should be improved in Rhoades’ second year and he has been through the battles with his guys Baldwin and Nick Kern. However, there are too many teams to leap for this group to make the NCAA Tournament.
Purdue Boilermakers
Matt Painter was finally able to get Purdue to the biggest stage. The Boilermakers reached the Final Four for the first time since 1980 before losing to UConn in the National Championship Game. Purdue is a rarity in college basketball, as they recruit to their system out of the high/prep schools and develop those players without relying much, if at all, on the portal. In fact, all 13 scholarship players have never played anywhere in college except Purdue.
Two-time National Player of the Year Zach Edey is gone, but Purdue still returns three starters, including a backcourt beginning its third season together. Braden Smith (12 PPG, 7.5 APG, 43.1% 3P%) is the lone returning Big Ten First Team player in the conference and Fletcher Loyer (10.3 PPG, 44.4% 3pt) were a major part of Purdue ranking second in 3P% (40.4%).
Purdue still has plenty of size with Trey Kaufman-Renn (6.4 PPG, 4 RPG) and Caleb Furst (2.2 PPG, 2.4 RPG) who will both see minutes at both the 4 and 5. The Boilermakers also have a couple raw bigs, 7-foot-2 Will Berg and 7-foot-3 freshman Daniel Jacobsen.
No Edey, but Purdue ranks second in the conference in points and minutes returning. They are always disciplined and well-coached. The Boilermakers deserve to be the favorite in the Big Ten, but it is not as clear-cut as last year.
Rutgers Scarlet Knights
Rutgers brings in the nation’s No. 2 recruiting class per Rivals headlined by Dylan Harper, son of Ron Harper Sr. and brother of former Rutgers star Ron Harper Jr., and Airious “Ace” Bailey – both five-star McDonald’s All-Americans – who are consensus Top 5 prospects in next year’s NBA Draft.
Harper had knee surgery this summer, but will be ready to start the season and the 6-foot-7 freshman can score everywhere on the court. PG Jamichael Davis will be able to distribute to him and other wings like Tyson Acuff (Eastern Michigan), who led the MAC in scoring. Bailey is a 6-foot-10 high-level athlete who will affect both ends and may challenge Duke’s Cooper Flagg for the No. 1 overall pick spot next summer. Zach Martini (Princeton) is a pick-and-pop four who shot 37.3% from 3. PJ Hayes IV (San Diego) shot nearly 40% from 3 at San Diego.
Rutgers only brings back one starter in Jeremiah Williams (12.2 PPG), but there has not been this much excitement around this program since they went to the Final Four in 1976. The Scarlet Knights ranked last in scoring and shooting (2P%, 3P%, and FT%) but that can only improve with Harper and Bailey. If they play the typical elite defense that Pikiell demands, Rutgers will go dancing.
UCLA Bruins
The Pac-12’s most successful program ended its run in the conference by finishing below .500 and missing the NCAA Tournament for the first time in Mick Cronin’s five-year tenure. However, a move to the Big Ten might be what the doctor ordered for the Bruins, as Cronin has always had physical and tough defensive teams (led the P12 in scoring defense last year) and that should fit right in the Big Ten.
Dylan Andrews (12.9 PPG, 3.7 APG) made the leap from role player to the star of the team last season. His new running mate in the backcourt comes from crosstown rival USC as Kobe Johnson (10.9 PPG, 4.6 RPG, 3.3 APG) comes in to be part of a likely three-guard lineup with Lazar Stefanovic (11.5 PPG, 6.1 RPG), who was UCLA’s best three-point shooter at 38.9%. Tyler Bilodeau (14.3 PPG, 5.7 RPG, Oregon State) will be the primary offense in the paint.
With the departure of Adem Bona, UCLA could go small ball and play a bit faster. Cronin has a veteran group for his first season in the Big Ten and likely has a faster transition to the new league than his other fellow Pac-12 defectors. UCLA should be back in the NCAA Tournament again.
USC Trojans
Rob Lanier was fired at SMU and Andy Enfield elected to take a fresh start in Dallas, so the Muss Bus found a destination to Los Angeles. Eric Musselman had taken Arkansas to two Elite Eights and three Sweet Sixteens in four seasons before it all came apart last year with plenty of turmoil in Fayetteville. Now Musselman gets his own fresh start at USC with what is an entirely new roster for the Trojans.
In the backcourt, the Trojans have all-conference team transfers from the Big East, Big West, Mountain West, and Ivy League. In the frontcourt, they have all-conference team transfers from the Big Sky, MAC, and Atlantic-10. So, Desmond Claude, Bryce Pope, Chibuzo Agbo, Clark Slajchert, Saint Thomas, Rashaun Agee, and Josh Cohen will all play a vital role.
Musselman was all about the transfer portal before the transfer portal was cool as he achieved success primarily with transfers at both Nevada and Arkansas. The Trojans are a high-variance team. There is talent here, but most of which are proven performers only at the mid or low-major level. USC looks like a midpack team at best for Musselman’s first season.
Washington Huskies
Everything is new in Seattle with a new conference and a new coach. Danny Sprinkle takes over a program that has made the NCAA Tournament once in seven seasons. He has not had a problem getting into the Big Dance with three straight appearances for two different programs.
The first order of business for Sprinkle is to replace 57 points from the Huskies’ depleted backcourt. All of the incoming transfers were double-figure scorers at their previous destinations including Luis Kortright (Rhode Island), D.J. Davis (Butler, UC Irvine), Mekhi Mason (Rice), Tyree Ihenacho (North Dakota), and Tyler Harris (Portland). The most talented player in the backcourt is Zoom Diallo, who was a McDonald’s All-American. Great Osobor was the Mountain West Player of the Year at Utah State and followed Sprinkle to Seattle. K.C. Ibekwe was in the Top 50 nationally in blocked-shot percentage last year at Oregon State.
Sprinkle will run a great deal of four and five-out looks offensively and that leads to a lot of shots inside the arc, especially at the rim (56.7% 2-point FG – 10th nationally at Utah State in 2024). It also helps to have Osobor down low. If the Huskies can find some 3-point shooting, they could be a surprise and earn an NCAA Tournament bid.
Wisconsin Badgers
The Badgers were 16-4 entering February, but the wheels came off with a 6-10 finish and a first-round exit in the NCAA Tournament. Then, Wisconsin lost three transfers who helped the Badgers to their most efficient offense (17th) in the Greg Gard era. Gard is typically more of an old-school coach but he has had to adapt in this new era of college basketball and embrace the portal.
Nevertheless, Wisconsin starts with two returners on the wing with Max Klesmit (9.9 PPG, 40% 3P%) and John Blackwell (8 PPG, 3.2 RPG). The primary question is who will replace three-year starting PG Chucky Hepburn? Camren Hunter (16.9 PPG, 5 RPG, 3 APG, Central Arkansas) could be first in line. 7-footer Steven Crowl (11.2 PPG, 7.3 RPG) has been a steady performer at Wisconsin, but the Badgers need more. Xavier Amos (13.8 PPG, 5.8 RPG, Northern Illinois) has only played 32 games the last two seasons.
It seems like every time you count Wisconsin out, they find a way to surprise and prove everyone wrong. However, this is a mass portal exodus to overcome. Gard is a solid coach with a high floor, but has not matched Bo Ryan’s postseason success. A potential change could be made if Wisconsin does not find it this season.
