College basketball best bets and projections
Tuesday was a wash, with the UConn over cashing and the Fordham over falling quite a bit short. We had no women’s plays yesterday due to the small slate and nothing meeting my best bet criteria, so we live on to bet another day. Today’s slate is pretty satisfying on both the men’s and women’s sides, with nearly 50 games each. I’ve got a 3-pack of men’s bets and what I hope to be a solid volume day in women’s hoops as well, so be sure to follow me on X, @TShoeIndex, to get those women’s plays as I make them.
Compare my odds to the college basketball odds (Vegas odds) and also take a look at the college basketball betting splits for additional info.
These “College Basketball Best Bets and Projections” pieces will be occurring Monday-Thursday on VSiN.com, so buckle up and get ready to take advantage of having the T Shoe Index at your disposal from now on.
As a refresher, the T Shoe Index (TSI) is my proprietary rating system that I use for college football, NFL, men’s and women’s college basketball, and WNBA. It is a tempo and opponent-adjusted rating that allows us to answer the question, “How many points would team A be expected to score and allow vs Team B”, based on a myriad of statistical factors.
Here are the TSI projections for today, February 21st:
How to read this sheet: the “TSI Projected Spread” is the projected point margin based on TSI ratings. If the number is positive, that indicates Team 1 is projected to win by that margin, if the number is negative, that indicates Team 2 is projected to win by that margin.
Men’s
| Team | Team | TSI | TSI O/U |
| Air Force | Nevada-Las Vegas | -7.7 | 140.1 |
| Alabama | Florida | 11.7 | 177.6 |
| American | Boston University | 5.2 | 131.8 |
| Army | Lehigh | 1.3 | 137.1 |
| Belmont | Drake | -13.1 | 157.3 |
| Bradley | Missouri State | 3.5 | 145.5 |
| Bucknell | Holy Cross | 4.9 | 136.9 |
| Charleston Southern | South Carolina Upstate | -6.4 | 140.9 |
| Charlotte | Memphis | -0.5 | 147.8 |
| Chattanooga | Wofford | 7.9 | 150.6 |
| Cincinnati | Oklahoma State | 11.7 | 143.3 |
| Clemson | Georgia Tech | 8.1 | 147.4 |
| Coastal Carolina | Georgia State | -7.9 | 152.6 |
| Colorado State | New Mexico | -3.2 | 154.7 |
| Dayton | George Mason | 0.9 | 140.8 |
| DePaul | Marquette | -26.1 | 145.9 |
| Duke | Miami (FL) | 4.5 | 151.9 |
| East Tennessee State | Virginia Military Institute | 12.9 | 145.1 |
| Evansville | Illinois-Chicago | -3.8 | 141.3 |
| Furman | Samford | -8.6 | 162.9 |
| George Washington | Saint Joseph’s | -9.2 | 156.9 |
| Georgetown | St. John’s (NY) | -8.5 | 148.8 |
| Georgia | Vanderbilt | 6.0 | 143.5 |
| Illinois | Penn State | 8.8 | 157.8 |
| Illinois State | Northern Iowa | -0.1 | 137.1 |
| Indiana | Nebraska | -3.3 | 147.9 |
| Indiana State | Valparaiso | 16.8 | 151.9 |
| Jacksonville State | Middle Tennessee | 8.3 | 129.7 |
| James Madison | Marshall | 12.2 | 153.6 |
| Kentucky | Louisiana State | 5.4 | 166.7 |
| La Salle | St. Bonaventure | -5.3 | 148.6 |
| Longwood | UNC Asheville | 3.4 | 147.4 |
| Louisville | Notre Dame | 0.3 | 139.6 |
| Loyola (MD) | Navy | -0.8 | 134.0 |
| Mercer | The Citadel | 2.2 | 135.9 |
| Mississippi | Mississippi State | -5.7 | 143.8 |
| Murray State | Southern Illinois | -6.0 | 139.0 |
| Pacific | Pepperdine | -9.9 | 147.7 |
| Presbyterian | Winthrop | -10.6 | 148.2 |
| Providence | Xavier | -2.1 | 146.5 |
| Rhode Island | Richmond | -3.8 | 146.2 |
| Rice | UAB | -11.1 | 152.0 |
| South Florida | UTSA | 10.0 | 157.0 |
| Tulsa | Wichita State | -2.4 | 145.8 |
| UNC Greensboro | Western Carolina | 5.3 | 143.9 |
Bets:
James Madison -6.5
Army/Lehigh Over 129.5
Air Force/UNLV Over 133.5
Women’s
| Team | Team | TSI | TSI O/U |
| Air Force | San Diego State | -7.0 | 133.5 |
| Akron | Bowling Green State | -4.5 | 132.9 |
| American | Boston University | -7.9 | 128.8 |
| Arkansas State | Troy | -0.2 | 151.7 |
| Army | Lehigh | -4.3 | 138.2 |
| Ball State | Central Michigan | 21.8 | 132.8 |
| Baylor | Kansas | 8.6 | 133.5 |
| Boise State | New Mexico | 3.9 | 120.7 |
| Brigham Young | TCU | 2.6 | 133.4 |
| Bucknell | Holy Cross | 1.2 | 112.2 |
| Buffalo | Northern Illinois | 5.0 | 129.6 |
| Butler | Xavier | 22.1 | 117.6 |
| Central Florida | Oklahoma State | -5.0 | 130.9 |
| Charleston Southern | South Carolina Upstate | 2.1 | 125.8 |
| Charlotte | North Texas | -8.5 | 133.5 |
| Cleveland State | IUPUI | 19.7 | 142.1 |
| Colgate | Lafayette | 9.2 | 118.1 |
| Davidson | Dayton | 16.6 | 126.6 |
| Duquesne | George Washington | 7.0 | 127.3 |
| East Carolina | South Florida | 5.6 | 119.9 |
| Eastern Michigan | Western Michigan | -11.3 | 122.3 |
| Fordham | Saint Louis | 3.3 | 139.3 |
| Fresno State | Nevada | 3.7 | 130.3 |
| Gardner-Webb | Radford | -8.0 | 133.6 |
| George Mason | St. Bonaventure | 20.9 | 126.5 |
| Houston | Iowa State | -4.3 | 144.4 |
| Jacksonville State | Middle Tennessee | -30.3 | 120.1 |
| Kansas State | West Virginia | -2.1 | 129.5 |
| Kent State | Ohio | 16.8 | 135.5 |
| La Salle | Richmond | -33.3 | 134.6 |
| Longwood | UNC Asheville | -3.7 | 125.7 |
| Louisiana | South Alabama | 4.5 | 117.8 |
| Loyola (IL) | Massachusetts | 14.9 | 131.0 |
| Loyola (MD) | Navy | 3.8 | 126.5 |
| Marshall | Texas State | 9.5 | 144.9 |
| Maryland | Rutgers | 16.9 | 149.4 |
| Maryland-Eastern Shore | Morgan State | 8.7 | 120.3 |
| Miami (OH) | Toledo | -18.2 | 119.9 |
| Michigan State | Purdue | 11.6 | 146.9 |
| Nevada-Las Vegas | Wyoming | 11.1 | 133.0 |
| Northern Kentucky | Purdue Fort Wayne | -1.7 | 139.4 |
| Presbyterian | Winthrop | 6.3 | 112.2 |
| Providence | Villanova | -15.9 | 119.9 |
| Robert Morris | Wright State | -14.4 | 130.2 |
| Saint Joseph’s | Virginia Commonwealth | 3.8 | 113.3 |
| San Jose State | Utah State | 7.4 | 127.3 |
| Southern Utah | UT Arlington | -4.5 | 144.9 |
| Texas | Texas Tech | 27.9 | 131.0 |
| Tulsa | UAB | 2.1 | 144.5 |
