College basketball best bets and projections
There are two massive slates today in the college hoops world, with nearly 150 games between men’s and women’s basketball. We’re in a bit of a slump with women’s plays lately, though are still sitting at 131-91 on the season. Men’s plays are on an 8-4 run and sit at 84-74-1 on the season. I’ve got three men’s plays as of now, and what I assume will be a pretty sizable women’s card today as well, so be sure to follow me on X, @TShoeIndex, to get those women’s plays as I make them.
Compare my odds to the college basketball odds (Vegas odds) and also take a look at the college basketball betting splits for additional info.
These “College Basketball Best Bets and Projections” pieces will be occurring Monday-Thursday on VSiN.com, so buckle up and get ready to take advantage of having the T Shoe Index at your disposal from now on.
As a refresher, the T Shoe Index (TSI) is my proprietary rating system that I use for college football, NFL, men’s and women’s college basketball, and WNBA. It is a tempo and opponent-adjusted rating that allows us to answer the question, “How many points would team A be expected to score and allow vs Team B”, based on a myriad of statistical factors.
Here are the TSI projections for today, February 22nd:
How to read this sheet: the “TSI Projected Spread” is the projected point margin based on TSI ratings. If the number is positive, that indicates Team 1 is projected to win by that margin, if the number is negative, that indicates Team 2 is projected to win by that margin.
Men’s
| Team | Team | TSI | TSI O/U |
| Abilene Christian | California Baptist | 0.4 | 138.7 |
| Albany (NY) | Vermont | -6.6 | 145.3 |
| Appalachian State | Old Dominion | 9.6 | 144.5 |
| Arizona | Washington State | 14.0 | 158.0 |
| Arizona State | Washington | -4.9 | 151.7 |
| Arkansas State | Troy | -0.9 | 156.5 |
| Bellarmine | Central Arkansas | 4.8 | 142.2 |
| Binghamton | Massachusetts-Lowell | -11.3 | 144.3 |
| Cal Poly | Cal State Fullerton | -10.8 | 132.1 |
| Cal State Bakersfield | Long Beach State | -5.8 | 150.4 |
| Cal State Northridge | UC Davis | 1.2 | 146.0 |
| California | Oregon State | 6.9 | 143.9 |
| Campbell | Hampton | 5.5 | 147.1 |
| Central Connecticut State | Wagner | 1.5 | 129.5 |
| Cleveland State | Northern Kentucky | -1.8 | 147.2 |
| College of Charleston | Delaware | -0.2 | 152.6 |
| Denver | South Dakota State | -6.7 | 164.8 |
| Detroit Mercy | Wright State | -16.1 | 158.5 |
| Drexel | Hofstra | -0.2 | 140.4 |
| Eastern Illinois | Tennessee State | -8.9 | 136.6 |
| Eastern Kentucky | North Alabama | 5.2 | 155.1 |
| Eastern Washington | Northern Arizona | 6.7 | 152.7 |
| Elon | Northeastern | -7.1 | 146.8 |
| Fairleigh Dickinson | Sacred Heart | -6.4 | 154.4 |
| Florida Atlantic | Southern Methodist | 3.1 | 155.6 |
| Florida Gulf Coast | Kennesaw State | 4.4 | 154.7 |
| Florida International | Liberty | -8.7 | 147.8 |
| Gardner-Webb | Radford | 2.9 | 143.9 |
| Georgia Southern | Texas State | -0.1 | 140.7 |
| Gonzaga | Portland | 21.7 | 156.8 |
| Grand Canyon | Tarleton State | 6.0 | 147.1 |
| Idaho | Northern Colorado | -9.1 | 152.6 |
| Kansas City | South Dakota | 0.9 | 151.2 |
| Le Moyne | Long Island University | 4.5 | 147.4 |
| Lindenwood | Tennessee-Martin | -9.5 | 148.4 |
| Little Rock | Southeast Missouri State | 9.7 | 148.9 |
| Louisiana | Louisiana-Monroe | 9.3 | 144.4 |
| Louisiana Tech | UTEP | 4.9 | 136.0 |
| Loyola Marymount | Santa Clara | -9.9 | 146.1 |
| Maine | Maryland-Baltimore County | 6.6 | 152.4 |
| Merrimack | Saint Francis (PA) | 14.5 | 134.2 |
| Michigan | Northwestern | -8.7 | 149.8 |
| Minnesota | Ohio State | 3.6 | 145.4 |
| Monmouth | Towson | -7.1 | 134.2 |
| Montana | Sacramento State | 10.9 | 137.0 |
| Montana State | Portland State | 2.0 | 144.7 |
| Morehead State | Western Illinois | 3.3 | 131.4 |
| New Hampshire | NJIT | 11.5 | 142.9 |
| North Carolina A&T | Stony Brook | -11.9 | 142.9 |
| North Dakota State | St. Thomas | -4.2 | 142.1 |
| Oakland | Robert Morris | 5.7 | 152.8 |
| Omaha | Oral Roberts | 5.6 | 150.3 |
| Oregon | Stanford | 0.0 | 152.3 |
| Purdue | Rutgers | 16.3 | 142.9 |
| Queens (NC) | Stetson | -13.6 | 155.9 |
| Sam Houston State | New Mexico State | -0.8 | 140.1 |
| Seattle | Stephen F. Austin | 3.6 | 145.1 |
| South Alabama | Southern Mississippi | -4.9 | 144.0 |
| Southern Illinois-Edwardsville | Tennessee Tech | 3.3 | 136.9 |
| Southern Utah | UT Arlington | -6.6 | 152.6 |
| Texas-Rio Grande Valley | Utah Valley | -13.4 | 145.2 |
| UC Irvine | UC Santa Barbara | 9.8 | 144.4 |
| UC Riverside | UC San Diego | -5.8 | 141.7 |
| UNC Wilmington | William & Mary | 9.2 | 144.2 |
Bets:
Arizona/Washington State Over 150.5
Stetson -6
Michigan/Northwestern Over 139.5
Women’s
| Team | Team | TSI | TSI O/U |
| Abilene Christian | California Baptist | -8.5 | 155.2 |
| Alabama | South Carolina | -21.9 | 138.1 |
| Albany (NY) | Vermont | -8.7 | 112.4 |
| Appalachian State | Old Dominion | 7.0 | 132.2 |
| Arkansas | Texas A&M | -8.1 | 130.0 |
| Auburn | Louisiana State | -20.2 | 143.1 |
| Austin Peay | Central Arkansas | -1.4 | 119.0 |
| Belmont | Valparaiso | 13.8 | 125.6 |
| Binghamton | Massachusetts-Lowell | 18.0 | 123.0 |
| Boston College | Florida State | -9.5 | 155.8 |
| Bradley | Illinois State | -14.7 | 138.0 |
| Cal Poly | Cal State Fullerton | 9.0 | 124.4 |
| Cal State Bakersfield | Long Beach State | -1.0 | 135.2 |
| Cal State Northridge | UC Davis | -17.2 | 124.8 |
| Canisius | Manhattan | -1.7 | 117.9 |
| Central Connecticut State | Wagner | 10.3 | 126.4 |
| Chattanooga | Western Carolina | 27.5 | 119.0 |
| Clemson | Notre Dame | -17.9 | 145.6 |
| Coastal Carolina | Georgia State | -7.4 | 143.0 |
| Denver | South Dakota State | -17.7 | 127.2 |
| Detroit Mercy | Milwaukee | -2.8 | 122.1 |
| Drake | Missouri State | 9.1 | 142.1 |
| Duke | Syracuse | 2.1 | 134.3 |
| East Tennessee State | UNC Greensboro | 6.1 | 113.5 |
| Eastern Illinois | Tennessee State | -0.9 | 135.4 |
| Eastern Washington | Northern Arizona | 10.5 | 148.2 |
| Evansville | Indiana State | -11.3 | 138.8 |
| Fairfield | Siena | 9.8 | 136.7 |
| Fairleigh Dickinson | Sacred Heart | -6.5 | 123.2 |
| Florida | Missouri | 7.6 | 148.4 |
| Florida International | Liberty | -3.7 | 134.4 |
| Furman | Mercer | -5.7 | 137.2 |
| Georgia | Mississippi | -11.7 | 125.2 |
| Georgia Southern | James Madison | -3.7 | 143.5 |
| Georgia Tech | Louisville | -6.7 | 135.5 |
| Gonzaga | San Francisco | 29.4 | 144.8 |
| Grand Canyon | Tarleton State | 22.1 | 117.3 |
| Green Bay | Oakland | 21.3 | 139.9 |
| Houston Christian | Texas A&M-Corpus Christi | -14.4 | 115.6 |
| Idaho | Northern Colorado | 5.2 | 120.1 |
| Illinois-Chicago | Murray State | -1.1 | 157.1 |
| Incarnate Word | Nicholls State | 4.4 | 120.9 |
| Indiana | Iowa | -3.5 | 162.1 |
| Indiana State | Evansville | 11.3 | 138.8 |
| Jacksonville | Kennesaw State | 5.6 | 127.3 |
| Kansas City | South Dakota | -11.0 | 128.1 |
| Kentucky | Mississippi State | -19.0 | 143.4 |
| Lamar | McNeese State | 31.5 | 139.8 |
| Le Moyne | Long Island University | 18.3 | 124.5 |
| Lindenwood | Tennessee-Martin | -9.2 | 133.0 |
| Lipscomb | North Alabama | 8.1 | 142.8 |
| Little Rock | Southeast Missouri State | 0.0 | 113.2 |
| Louisiana Tech | UTEP | 5.3 | 131.1 |
| Louisiana-Monroe | Southern Mississippi | -4.4 | 133.9 |
| Loyola Marymount | Saint Mary’s (CA) | 0.7 | 120.5 |
| Maine | Maryland-Baltimore County | 16.4 | 122.7 |
| Marist | Mount St. Mary’s | -4.6 | 114.9 |
| Merrimack | Saint Francis (PA) | 10.7 | 123.3 |
| Miami (FL) | Virginia | -1.4 | 137.9 |
| Montana | Sacramento State | 12.8 | 133.0 |
| Montana State | Portland State | 15.4 | 118.0 |
| Morehead State | Western Illinois | 0.0 | 134.6 |
| NC State | North Carolina | 6.8 | 132.2 |
| New Hampshire | NJIT | -2.4 | 118.5 |
| New Mexico State | Sam Houston | 3.8 | 128.3 |
| Niagara | Quinnipiac | 8.9 | 141.7 |
| North Dakota State | St. Thomas | 4.8 | 139.5 |
| North Florida | Queens (NC) | 9.6 | 130.5 |
| Northern Iowa | Southern Illinois | 12.9 | 140.1 |
| Ohio State | Penn State | 10.8 | 156.5 |
| Omaha | Oral Roberts | -12.9 | 172.2 |
| Pacific | Pepperdine | 14.2 | 134.5 |
| Pittsburgh | Wake Forest | 2.4 | 125.0 |
| Rider | Saint Peter’s | 3.8 | 112.8 |
| Samford | Wofford | -6.5 | 120.0 |
| San Diego | Santa Clara | -10.8 | 128.9 |
| Seattle | Stephen F. Austin | -13.1 | 144.4 |
| Southern Illinois-Edwardsville | Tennessee Tech | -17.9 | 145.1 |
| Temple | UTSA | 1.1 | 131.7 |
| Texas-Rio Grande Valley | Utah Valley | -1.4 | 122.9 |
| UC Irvine | UC Santa Barbara | -0.2 | 123.8 |
| UC Riverside | UC San Diego | -0.1 | 109.9 |
| UCLA | Utah | 2.9 | 147.7 |
