College basketball best bets and projections

Editor note: Tyler Shoemaker originally filed this on Saturday, but it included projections for Sunday‘s men’s and women’s NCAA Tournament action. The tables have been updated accordingly.

Follow me on X, @TShoeIndex, to get my women’s plays as soon as I make them and before the lines move in response.


Compare my odds to the college basketball odds (Vegas odds) and also take a look at the college basketball betting splits for additional info.

As a refresher, the T Shoe Index (TSI) is my proprietary rating system that I use for college football, NFL, men’s and women’s college basketball, and WNBA. It is a tempo and opponent-adjusted rating that allows us to answer the question, “How many points would team A be expected to score and allow vs Team B”, based on a myriad of statistical factors. 

Here are the TSI projections for today, March 24th:

How to read this sheet: the “TSI Projected Spread” is the projected point margin based on TSI ratings. If the number is positive, that indicates Team 1 is projected to win by that margin, if the number is negative, that indicates Team 2 is projected to win by that margin.

Men’s Sunday

AlabamaGrand Canyon12.3163.7
DukeJames Madison8.1148.7
HoustonTexas A&M17.4132.8
Indiana StateMinnesota5.6152.9
Nevada-Las VegasBoston College8.9143.8
PurdueUtah State8.9153.1
San Diego StateYale10.4138.7
South FloridaVirginia Commonwealth-3.8136.8
Wake ForestGeorgia6.7147.5

Women’s Sunday

CaliforniaSaint Joseph’s-9.2124.8
CincinnatiPurdue Fort Wayne-3.1126.9
IllinoisStony Brook-6.9139.3
Illinois StateCollege of Charleston-3.5142.5
Kansas StateColorado0.6131.5
Louisiana StateMiddle Tennessee8.5139.9
Mississippi StateTCU4.0135.5
North Carolina A&TOld Dominion0.9119.5
Ohio StateDuke3.2128.6
Oregon StateNebraska5.7128.4
Saint LouisNorthern Iowa-9.6145.9
South CarolinaNorth Carolina23.7136.0
StanfordIowa State11.3141.8
ToledoSt. John’s (NY)9.7124.5
Virginia TechBaylor-0.4133.9
Washington StateSanta Clara5.7129.9