College basketball expert picks and predictions
Slim pickings on the college basketball card once again, as there are only three games on the main board and six games on the added board for Friday. As I mentioned yesterday, a lot of teams are going through exam weeks and staying eligible is critically important. We’re going to continue to see quirky schedules throughout the month from exams and holiday breaks. By the way, there are 102 games on Saturday.
It didn’t take long to get through today’s card, but was there anything worth picking?
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Here are some thoughts on the December 8 card (odds from DraftKings):
Army Black Knights at Harvard Crimson (-12, 135)
7 p.m. ET
Next week is exam week at Harvard, as the team won’t play another game until Dec. 21 after tonight’s tilt with Army. The Crimson are coming off of far and away their worst performance of the season in a 75-53 loss to Loyola Chicago in which they mustered just .722 points per possession. I’m expecting a bounce back from Tommy Amaker’s crew tonight.
Army is easily the worst opponent that Harvard will have played so far among eight Division I foes. They’ve lost at Indiana and lost to Boston College in an odd scheduling situation with a back-to-back after beating UMass in overtime. The loss of Justice Ajogbor to a hand injury has been tough in the last two games, as he leads the team with 7.2 rebounds per contest, but this is the kind of game where his absence shouldn’t really be missed.
Harvard is a positive regression candidate on offense to some degree, shooting just 54.4% on Close Twos. This should be an opportunity to improve upon that number with Army allowing a 41.8% shot share in that department. Harvard has shot 38.6% from 3, though, to counteract the low finishing rate at the rim and should be able to continue against Army, who has played the 345th-ranked schedule per Bart Torvik and 355th per KenPom.
Harvard has played three games at Lavietes Pavilion this season and has scored 1.153, 1.187, and 1.185 points per possession in those three games, so they’ve shot the ball really well. Army, meanwhile, against a terrible schedule, is 302nd in 3P%, 311th in 2P%, and 362nd in FT%, making just 50.5% of their free throw attempts.
Army does play at a really slow tempo, which is why I think the Black Knights have taken money here, but they can’t make shots and have turned the ball over on 21% of their possessions, so I think Harvard has a good chance at putting some distance in this game.
Pick: Harvard -12
