College Basketball Best Bets Today:

It is a jam-packed college basketball slate for Friday with 77 games. As I mentioned yesterday, we have a lot of early-season tournaments taking place, so we’re getting teams on back-to-backs in neutral settings, which always makes for a different handicap than a run-of-the-mill game at home.

There are also a lot of early starts. For days like today, and especially Saturdays, I don’t do games that start before 4 p.m. ET to try and ensure that there’s some measure or lead time for readers. I won’t even do anything before 5 unless it’s a game that I really love and feel like I have to get out there.

 

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We have a ton of content rolling in here at VSiN on a daily basis, so you may want to bookmark our College Basketball Articles page so you can find this and also Greg Peterson’s top CBB bets of the day.

Tracking sheet is here. 2023-24 for reference is here.

This article will run Monday-Saturday. Lines will be from DraftKings, as they are widely available to readers. Shop around for the best prices.

Shout-outs to Bart Torvik, Erik Haslam, and Ken Pomeroy, as those are my three primary resources for information when handicapping.

Check the latest college basketball odds for legal U.S. sportsbooks across the country and our Vegas odds if you share a state with us here at VSiN. Also, give the college basketball betting splits a look for these or any other college basketball games today have your interest.

Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publish.

Drexel Dragons at Fordham Rams (-7, 137)

7 p.m. ET

Drexel is in the Bronx tonight to take on Fordham in a matchup between CAA and A-10 competitors. This is mostly the same Fordham roster that head coach Keith Urgo had last season, a group that went just 13-20 and shot 46.2% on 2s and 31.5% on 3s, to rank 324th and 296th, respectively.

One difference is Jackie Johnson III, the UNLV transfer who leads the team in Usage Rate, but he was a 48% shooter on 2s and a 35% shooter on 3s in three previous seasons, so I’m not expecting him to be a standout in the A-10 or on this Fordham roster. The rest of the roster has a lot of inefficient shooters, including Will Richardson, who shot under 40% on 2s and under 30% on 3s last season while taking a lot of both.

Drexel has been a solid defensive team throughout Zach Spiker’s tenure. That seems like a good pairing against an inefficient Fordham offense, especially with Drexel playing at one of the nation’s slowest tempos. This will be something of a pace war, as Fordham wants to push it, but I don’t think they’ll find a ton of success with that.

Drexel isn’t a great offensive team by any means, but they did jettison some limited offensive players from last year’s team. I think they can ugly this game up enough to cover the seven-point spread.

Pick: Drexel +7

Texas State Bobcats vs. Princeton Tigers (-6, 137)

7:30 p.m. ET

Second round action in the Myrtle Beach Invitational on Coastal Carolina’s campus features Texas State vs. Princeton. The Bobcats have played on this floor before, but they didn’t look like it yesterday, losing 82-68 to Bradley in a game where the Braves led by 19 at halftime. Princeton was crushed by Wright State, as they, too, got rocked in the first half and trailed by 18.

Neither team had to put forth a ton of energy and the minutes were spread out for the most part. Princeton did hold their stars back a little more, but it’s early in the season and these kids are in great shape, so I’m not really thinking much about that.

Instead, what I’m thinking about is how much more efficient Princeton typically is on offense. The Ivy League is weaker than the Sun Belt, so I’ll throw that caveat out there, but Mitch Henderson simply runs a better offense than Terrence Johnson. Princeton also takes excellent care of the basketball, which goes a long way.

Texas State would normally be a team I would like with a very high shot share on Close Twos of 45.2%, but they don’t follow it up by shooting 3s. Thus far, their 3P Rate is just 24.6%. They were actually 10th in the nation at 46.5%, but 245th in FG% on those shots. And they only had a 3P Rate of 24.2%. So, yes, this is a team that gets to the rim, but they don’t finish well there and don’t take 3s to offset the opportunity cost that they lose.

Over 30% of Texas State’s shots this season are mid-range jumpers and that percentage was 29.3% last season. Princeton, meanwhile, gets to the rim, but also shoots a lot of 3s. They had made at least 10 3s in the previous four games before going 8-of-27 last night. Bradley, another offense that effectively moves the ball with a good head coach in Brian Wardle, had 1.204 points per possession last night. I think Princeton will be above a point per possession here. Texas State has not been in any game this season.

Pick: Princeton -6

Mississippi State Bulldogs (-1.5, 159) at SMU Mustangs

8:30 p.m. ET

There are quite a few good games tonight, but this one might fly under the radar a little bit. It will be a good road test for Chris Jans’ team as his Bulldogs head to Dallas to take on the Mustangs. First-year head coach Andy Enfield’s team hasn’t been tested much, but they failed their first big test with an 11-point loss to Butler.

In that game, USC allowed 1.166 points per possession. It is the only game that they’ve played against a top-175 team per Torvik. Mississippi State is a top-25 team and brought back some key pieces, along with some efficient transfers in guys like Kanye Cleary (49/38/81 2P%/3P%/FT%) and Claudell Harris (45/37/71). Adding a couple of above average distance shooters is big for Jans, as the Bulldogs only shot 32.2% from 3 last season and shot 26.6% from 3 in his first season.

What’s crazy about that is he’s taken them to the NCAA Tournament twice and now has his best roster in Starkville. This has been a very good defensive program over the years and Jans really forces the issue in the turnover department.

I think all of these things are problematic for Enfield. He does have a solid offensive team, but it remains to be seen how they play on defense and I also wasn’t a huge fan of USC’s shot selection during his years there. Two years ago, the Trojans were 327th in shot share on Close Twos. They took a ton of mid-range jumpers, but shot almost 41% on them to overcome it. That’s rare.

The body of work for Mississippi State has been more impressive, especially with the neutral-site win over Utah last time out and they overcame bad shooting in that one. I don’t think USC has as much margin for error.

Pick: Mississippi State -1.5

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