College Basketball Best Bets Today:

A mammoth sports day includes 105 college basketball games, as we have the College Football Playoff, our first Saturday NFL games of the season, and a bunch of all-day basketball. Sports fans can sink into the couch and not bother putting on real pants to just take it all in today. It is also the first day of winter, which means the days start getting longer again tomorrow.

As usual, I’m only looking at games that start around 4 p.m. or 5 p.m. ET to give the article enough lead time. The downside today is that it means a lot of games are cut off because of the CFP and other factors, so the slate is much more limited for my purposes with just 41 of those 105 games at 4 p.m. ET or later.

 

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Just a heads up that there will be no college basketball articles on Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday of next week. I’ll do Monday, Friday, and Saturday and go back to the regular schedule the following week.

Tracking sheet is here. 2023-24 for reference is here.

This article will run Monday-Saturday (not next week, see exception above). Lines will be from DraftKings, as they are widely available to readers. Shop around for the best prices.

Shout-outs to Bart Torvik, Erik Haslam, and Ken Pomeroy, as those are my three primary resources for information when handicapping.

Check the latest college basketball odds for legal U.S. sportsbooks across the country and our Vegas odds if you share a state with us here at VSiN. Also, give the college basketball betting splits a look for these or any other college basketball games today have your interest.

Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publish.

Western Illinois Leathernecks at Lindenwood Lions (-2.5, 136.5)

4:30 p.m. ET

We head to Saint Charles, Missouri for this conference clash in the OVC between Western Illinois and Lindenwood. The Lions look like a positive regression team to me in a few areas and the Leathernecks look like a team that should experience some negative regression on offense.

Let’s start with the shot selection, given that these two teams have played equally poor schedules. Lindenwood has a 42.9% shot share on Close Twos compared to a 27.9% mark for the Leathernecks. Western Illinois ranks 360th in the nation in that department. It just isn’t a big part of their offense and that should ultimately lead to a low success rate on 2s. They’re shooting 41.9% on mid-range jumpers and still rank 289th in 2P% against Division I opponents.

So, I expect the Leatherneck offense to drop off as we keep going unless they can get to the rim more often. They’re also shooting above the national average on 3s after shooting 31.7% last season in Chad Boudreau’s first year. This team is worse from a talent standpoint, as Boudreau was able to ride some solid roster building from Rob Jeter in Season 1. This team is ranked more than 70 spots lower than last year’s per Torvik.

Lindenwood is only shooting 25.8% on 3s this season. JUCO transfer Anias Futrell, who has missed the last two games, is just 9-of-35. Kent State transfer Reggie Bass is a 32% 3P% shooter for his career and shot 35% last season. He’s only 15-of-53 (28.3%) this season. Markeith Browning has taken too many 3s, as he’s 5-of-34 on the season after taking just 29 last season for Milwaukee in nine games. He was a 37% 3-point shooter in 2023.

Lindenwood won’t be good from 3, but they should be better. I think the shot selection and some regression signs on both sides are helpful today as a short favorite.

Pick: Lindenwood -2.5

Northern Colorado Bears (-6, 155) at Denver Pioneers

5 p.m. ET

Steve Smiley’s crew heads from Greeley to the capital of Denver for this Rocky Mountain State battle in the capital. The Bears are having a bit of a disappointing season by their standards, as they are off to just a 7-5 start with one game left before a long layoff and then the start of Big Sky play.

Denver is 6-8 and three of their six wins have been against lower-division opponents. They have played their way through a big chunk of the Big Sky with wins over Montana State, Sacramento State, and Portland State, so I guess that’s one of the reasons why this line has dropped. Northern Colorado also has three wins against lower-division foes. Torvik also only has Northern Colorado a 3.8-point favorite and Haslametrics projects about a 6-point win.

I think we’re sitting on a good opportunity for Northern Colorado here. The interior defense for both teams has been awful, as they rank 328th (NoCo) and 347th (Denver) in 2P% defense against Division I opponents. The key difference for me is that Northern Colorado has a 42% shot share on Close Twos and Denver has a 31.2% shot share. So I think Northern Colorado does way more damage on 2s in this game, as each team has allowed a similar shot share on Close Twos and both teams have struggled badly at defending those attempts with FG% of 64.4% (NoCo) and 65.9% (Denver).

The other thing is just that Northern Colorado simply has to start shooting better at some point. Smiley’s offense has been very successful during his tenure and the team has shot 37.6%, 37.9%, 36.4%, and 35.1% up until this season, where the Bears are shooting just 30.3%. Smiley’s had to cycle some talent through the program thanks to the portal and obviously it helped having Dalton Knecht, but his offensive scheme is too good for the team to keep shooting this poorly.

Similarly, Denver has allowed D-I opponents to shoot just 28.5%. I can’t see that continuing, as this team is bad defensively in virtually every other area.

The Bears are also shooting 75.5% on free throws, so they should be able to put this game away at the line if need be.

Pick: Northern Colorado -6

Oregon Ducks (-5.5, 149) vs. Stanford Cardinal

8 p.m. ET

This is a neutral-site game at the SAP Center in San Jose, as the Ducks and Cardinals come together for a battle between former Pac-12 opponents. Stanford is in the ACC now and Oregon is in the Big Ten, so this is a good chance to pour one out for the conference.

Stanford is off to an awesome start for first-year head coach Jerrod Calhoun, but we may need to pump the brakes a bit. Per KenPom, Stanford has played the 316th-ranked schedule by Net Rating, with the 316th-ranked schedule by Offensive Rating and 304th-ranked schedule by Defensive Rating. Oregon is 30th, 69th, and 13th, respectively, in those three categories.

Per Torvik, Oregon has five players in the top 450 in Defensive Box Plus-Minus. Stanford has one. One of the players in that department for the Ducks is 7-footer Nate Bittle, who draws the tough assignment of 7-foot-1 Maxime Raynaud, who has averaged 21.5 points and 11.7 rebounds per contest. But, Raynaud hasn’t run into many players like Bittle. He did have 32 points and 16 rebounds against Christoph Tilly and Santa Clara in a 71-69 win, but Tilly only played 20 minutes in that game.

Oregon also has better guard play than any team the Cardinal have faced. The Ducks are good on offense and defense in that department. And, despite the weak schedule, Stanford is 145th in 3P% and 136th in 2P%, slightly worse numbers than Oregon, who is 141st in 3P% and 122nd in 2P% against a far stronger slate of opponents.

Stanford and Calhoun are stepping up in class in a big way here. Oregon already has three Quadrant 1-A wins and two Quadrant 2 wins. Stanford has played two Q1/Q2 games.

Pick: Oregon -5.5

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