College Basketball Best Bets Today:

Happy college basketball Saturday! It is another huge day on the court with 132 games to pick from, as 264 teams will be in action. We are just eight days away from the start of the first conference tournament, so the postseason is rapidly approaching and VSiN should be your home for all of that action, as we’re going to have previews of all 31 conference tourneys.

But, for now, we’re still grinding the regular season and that means looking at today’s docket. As usual, I’ve cut my focus to the games starting at 5 p.m. ET or later in the interest of lead time so that readers can see my analysis and decide if they want to follow, fade, or stay away completely.

 

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Tracking sheet is here. 2023-24 for reference is here.

This article will run Monday-Saturday (not next week, see exception above). Lines will be from DraftKings, as they are widely available to readers. Shop around for the best prices.

Shout-outs to Bart Torvik, Erik Haslam, and Ken Pomeroy, as those are my three primary resources for information when handicapping.

Check the latest college basketball odds for legal U.S. sportsbooks across the country and our Vegas odds if you share a state with us here at VSiN. Also, give the college basketball betting splits a look for these or any other college basketball games today have your interest.

Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publish.

South Alabama Jaguars at Texas State Bobcats (-2.5, 134.5)

5:30 p.m. ET

We start in the Sun Belt, where South Alabama and Texas State meet in a rematch of last Saturday’s game. South Alabama won that game 70-65 in overtime, as the game was 60-60 heading to the extra period. But, it should have been a much higher scoring affair in my opinion.

Texas State was just 15-of-43 on 2-point shots, including 14-of-34 at the rim. The Bobcats pulled down 25 offensive rebounds in the contest, but were unable to finish off the bunnies at the bucket. South Alabama had similar woes, shooting just 12-of-27 at the rim. This was a really low possession game, being played to just 67 possessions, even with overtime. So, that’s the concern that I have here with the Over.

However, from a shot selection standpoint, and in a game that had 38 offensive rebounds and 48 free throw attempts, I have to expect some positive regression with the field goal percentages in the rematch. Texas State has been one of the few teams capable of getting to the rim against South Alabama, who has forced opponents into a 3 on 59.7% of shot attempts.

The Bobcats are shooting 35.8% on 3s, but they’ve only taken one on 28.2% of their shot attempts. South Alabama is only shooting 31.6% on 3s, but Texas State has allowed a 37.1% 3P%. Again, I’m expecting better shooting numbers here, along with a high rate of free throw attempts and offensive rebounds.

Pick: Over 134.5

Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns at Southern Miss Golden Eagles (-4.5, 148.5)

8 p.m. ET

Another one from the Sun Belt here with a look at Louisiana and Southern Miss. The Golden Eagles won the first meeting 67-59 back on Jan. 25 and maybe we get a repeat of that effort, but I think we’re going to see this game go a little bit differently.

Let’s start with the turnover battle, which Louisiana won 15-6 in the first game. That seems likely to happen again, as the Ragin’ Cajuns are fourth in TO% on offense and third in TO% on defense in conference play. Southern Miss, meanwhile, is 13th on offense and ninth on defense. That makes it tricky to cover numbers when you lose the turnover battle a lot.

Louisiana is third in 3P% defense in league play at 29.8% and Southern Miss is 13th in 3P% on offense at 29.6%. So, I don’t think that the Golden Eagles are going to really find an advantage there either. Louisiana also has a large edge at the free throw line.

The first game was a one-point game until the final minute and then it got away from Louisiana. They should keep this one close, too, as they rank sixth in Haslametrics’ Momentum rating, jumping 25 spots in the last week and 34 in the last 30 days.

Pick: Louisiana +4.5

Montana Grizzlies at Montana State Bobcats (-1.5, 145.5)

9 p.m. ET

Let’s go to the Big Sky, where we get a big rivalry game between Montana and Montana State. The Grizzlies won the first meeting 77-70 on Jan. 25, but the game really wasn’t that close, as they led by as many as 17 in the second half. It was the early stages of a big stretch for Montana, who ranks 13th in Haslametrics’ Momentum rating heading into today’s action.

The Grizzlies have climbed 64 spots in Erik’s rankings over the last 30 days and they’ll look to keep that momentum going here as a short pup in Bozeman. Montana State only scored 52 points from the floor in that game, scoring 18 of their 70 at the charity stripe. Not only that, but the Bobcats were 20-of-33 on 2s. I don’t foresee that happening again. They also had 13 turnovers in a game played to just 63 possessions.

The Grizzlies are a shot-making machine. They are shooting 42.5% from 3 and 56.7% on 2s in Big Sky play, leading the conference in adjusted offensive efficiency and TO%. Montana State is just seventh in adjusted offensive efficiency in conference play. While their defensive metrics do stand out nicely, I don’t see them keeping pace with the Grizzlies here.

Pick: Montana +1.5

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