College Basketball Best Bets Today:

The Saturday college basketball slates are not for the faint of heart. We have nearly 150 games on the docket for January 11 and we’re going to have a lot of triple-digit Saturdays for the next several weeks. As you know if you read this column regularly, I start with games 4 p.m. ET and later for the sake of lead time. If you want some of the earlier games, that’s where Greg Peterson comes in.

For those trying to navigate through the card, I’d recommend looking chronologically based on the time that you have. I’ve also talked about that concept of conference specialization so that you can narrow your focus into looking at maybe 10 or 20 games in some of those leagues as opposed to trying to look at everything. Be honest with yourself about the time that you have to handicap.

 

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Tracking sheet is here. 2023-24 for reference is here.

This article will run Monday-Saturday (not next week, see exception above). Lines will be from DraftKings, as they are widely available to readers. Shop around for the best prices.

Shout-outs to Bart Torvik, Erik Haslam, and Ken Pomeroy, as those are my three primary resources for information when handicapping.

Check the latest college basketball odds for legal U.S. sportsbooks across the country and our Vegas odds if you share a state with us here at VSiN. Also, give the college basketball betting splits a look for these or any other college basketball games today have your interest.

Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publish.

Queens U. Royals (-1, 145.5) at Austin Peay Governors

5 p.m. ET

We start in the Atlantic Sun Conference with a matchup between the Royals and the Governors. Queens is coming off of a mammoth win against Lipscomb on Thursday night in a game where they dominated the offensive glass and continued their very hot shooting. I see no reason why it should end tonight and there is also a pretty interesting note from the win over the Bisons worth mentioning.

Leo Colimerio, who leads the team with 13 PPG and had scored 20.3 PPG over his previous eight, only had two points in the upset win over Lipscomb. Some may be thinking that a letdown is in order for the Royals off of a huge victory, but their best offensive player will surely be looking to redeem himself after that performance.

Queens is 145th in 2P% and 112th in 3P%, while Austin Peay is 340th in 2P% and 343rd in 3P%. Queens has half the shot share on mid-range jumpers that Austin Peay has, opting instead to shoot 3s at a 47.1% rate. They’re shooting 34.6% on those shots, 6.5% better than what the Governors have done with their smaller 3P Rate of 38.2%.

Queens should also have the edge on the offensive glass in this one, especially with the ability to match up with 7-footer Malcolm Wilson when Austin Peay head coach Corey Gipson tries to go a little bit bigger with his lineup.

Pick: Queens +1

San Francisco Dons at Santa Clara Broncos (-3, 152)

7 p.m. ET

San Francisco and Santa Clara play for the second time in two weeks, but with a change of venue. The first game was an instant classic, as San Francisco won 97-94 in overtime. The teams had 1.224 and 1.186 points per possession, respectively. 

The Dons are losing it a bit on defense here of late. They only allowed 1 PPP or more in four of their 14 games going into that game against Santa Clara. They followed up the Santa Clara game by giving up 1.268 PPP to Pacific and then 1.235 to Washington State before surrendering 1.098 to Portland in a bounceback win last time out against a team ranked in the 310s per Torvik.

So, I think Santa Clara will have plenty of offensive success here. The Broncos have the higher shot share on Close Twos (44.1% to 34.2%) and are also the better offensive rebounding team. Santa Clara actually jumped out early in that first meeting and led by 10 in the first half before squandering that lead prior to halftime. They also led by 3 with 15 seconds left and fouled Malik Thomas on a 3-point attempt.

Herb Sendek’s crew gets revenge tonight in my mind playing in front of what should be an amped up hometown crowd.

Pick: Santa Clara -3

UC Irvine Anteaters at UC San Diego Tritons (-6, 139)

10 p.m. ET

On a day with nearly 150 basketball games, this is one of the best, as UC Irvine and UC San Diego come together. These are the two top-100 teams out of the Big West Conference and this is a big game for seeding down the line in the conference tournament as the first of two head-to-head meetings, with the next coming on Feb. 8.

I believe this is the biggest underdog role for the Anteaters in a conference game since January 20, 2018 against UC Santa Barbara, so we’re talking about a pretty big outlier. The Tritons have been awesome this season, though it is worth noting that their strength of schedule is 112 places below the Anteaters for Torvik and 125 spots for KenPom.

I like UC Irvine’s size in this matchup with 7-footer Bent Leuchten and 6-foot-10 Kyle Evans. The Anteaters are regularly one of the nation’s best teams in terms of 2P% and with keeping teams off the scoreboard at the rim. This season, they are 14th in 2P% defense, so that trend under Russ Turner has continued.

UC San Diego has made a lot of hay from deep, taking a 3 on 48.6% of their shot attempts with a 35.3% conversion rate. UC Irvine’s perimeter defense will have to be on point here, but I think they’re up to the task. This is a game where the Anteaters should have a modest advantage on the glass. I would also expect them to be more responsible with the ball than their season average suggests, considering a lot of guys with high TO% don’t play a whole lot at this stage of the game.

The Tritons have also allowed opponents to shoot 37.2% from 3. While chucking from deep isn’t a huge part of the Anteaters offense, they are shooting it a bit better over the last two games.

Pick: UC Irvine +6

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