The NFL Playoffs begin today with a pair of Wild Card matchups to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning using our VSiN NFL Betting Splits, which are updated every 5-minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.

 

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4:30 p.m. ET: Los Angeles Chargers (-3, 41.5) at Houston Texans

The Chargers (11-6) are the 5-seed and just took down the Raiders 34-20 in Week 18, covering as 7-point road favorites. On the other hand, the Texans (10-7) are the 4-seed and just handled the Titans 23-14, winning outright as 2.5-point road dogs.

This line opened with Los Angeles listed as a 3-point road favorite. The public thinks this line is way too short and they’re rushing to the window to back the Chargers minus the points. However, despite receiving 80% of spread bets at both DraftKings and Circa, we’ve seen Los Angeles remain frozen at -3. In fact, the Texans are being juiced up +3 (-115) and we’ve seen other shops fall down to Chargers -2.5 throughout the week.

Normally, if a team is getting such lopsided support you would expect them to rise from -3 to -3.5 or -4. This lack of line movement toward the popular side signals a sharp line freeze and some sneaky reverse line movement on Texans +3, as the line has stayed the same or moved slightly in their favor despite being the unpopular play. Playoff dogs are 52-34 ATS (60%) with a 17% ROI since 2017. Wild Card dogs are 24-12 ATS (67%) with a 30% ROI since 2017. Wild Card dogs playing an opponent who missed the playoffs the previous season are 14-1 ATS (93%) since 2017.

Houston is only receiving 20% of spread bets at both DraftKings and Circa, making the Texans one of the top “bet against the public” plays of Wild Card Weekend. At Circa, which caters to sharper bettors, the Texans are receiving 20% of spread bets but 39% of spread dollars, a sharp contrarian “low bets, higher dollars” bet split. For those looking to buy-low on Houston but might miss access to the +3, the Texans are in a prime “Wong Teaser” spot. By taking Houston up from +2.5 to +8.5, bettors are able to pass through the top key numbers of 3 and 7.

Sharps also seem to expect a lower scoring game here, as the total has dipped from as high as 44.5 down to 41.5. This movement is notable because the public is playing the over (68% of bets at DraftKings), yet the total fell. Wild Card Weekend unders are 20-16 (56%) with an 8% ROI since 2017. When the total falls at least a half point in a playoff game, the under is 23-17 (58%) with an 11% ROI since 2017. The Texans went 11-6 to the under this season, tied with the Giants for the best under team in the NFL.

8 p.m. ET: Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens (-9.5, 44)

The Steelers (10-7) are the 6-seed and have lost four straight games heading into the postseason, falling to the Bengals 19-17 in Week 18 but managing to cover as 2.5-point home dogs. Meanwhile, the Ravens (12-5) are the 3-seed and have won four straight, crushing the Browns 35-10 in Week 18 and easily covering as 19.5-point home favorites.

This line opened with Baltimore listed as an 8.5-point home favorite. We quickly saw this line get steamed up Ravens -10. However, over the past few days we’ve seen some sharp buyback on the Steelers at the key number of +10, dropping the line back down to Ravens -9.5 where it stands now. At DraftKings, the Ravens are taking in 50% of spread bets and 58% of dollars. At Circa, Baltimore is receiving 40% of spread bets but 64% of spread dollars. Big Wild Card home favorites of 9-points or more are 10-1 ATS (91%) over the past 20 seasons.

The Steelers have value as a divisional dog, with the built in familiarity leveling the playing field and benefiting the teams getting points. Postseason divisional dogs are 8-4 ATS (67%) since 2017. Pittsburgh also has correlative betting value as a big dog in a low total game, with the fewer amount of expected points scored making it harder for the favorite to cover. Pittsburgh has buy-low value as an unpopular dog on a losing streak against a sell-high public favorite on a winning streak. Mike Tomlin is 65-38 ATS (63%) with a 22% ROI as a dog in his career. Russell Wilson is 44-26 ATS (63%) with a 22% ROI as a dog in his career. Baltimore will be without their top WR Zay Flowers due to a knee injury.

Sharps have also hit the under, dropping the total from as high as 46.5 down to 44, with some shops now showing 43.5. At DraftKings, the under is taking in 45% of bets and 51% of dollars. At Circa, the under is receiving 59% of bets and 67% of dollars. When the total is 43 or more, Wild Card unders are 18-12 (60%) with a 16% ROI since 2017. The forecast calls for low 30s with 15 MPH winds and gusts up to 25 MPH, making this a “windy under” system match.

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