College Basketball Best Bets Today:

The Saturday college basketball card is a massive undertaking. There are 137 games of Division I vs. Division I opponents. The day started bright and early, but my focus is always on games that start 4 p.m. ET and later to give the article some lead time. Thanks to a late start today, I’m actually looking at games 6 p.m. ET or later, but there are still a lot of those to pick from.

Tracking sheet is here. 2023-24 for reference is here.

 

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This article will run Monday-Saturday (not next week, see exception above). Lines will be from DraftKings, as they are widely available to readers. Shop around for the best prices.

Shout-outs to Bart Torvik, Erik Haslam, and Ken Pomeroy, as those are my three primary resources for information when handicapping.

Check the latest college basketball odds for legal U.S. sportsbooks across the country and our Vegas odds if you share a state with us here at VSiN. Also, give the college basketball betting splits a look for these or any other college basketball games today have your interest.

Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publish.

UTSA Roadrunners at Tulane Green Wave (-5.5, 156.5)

6 p.m. ET

I think a lot of people expected Tulane to be better. There are some really ugly data points on their resume, including the home losses to Southeastern Louisiana and New Orleans. Maybe Ron Hunter figured some things out over the holidays because Tulane came back in a big way with a 15-point win at Charlotte to open AAC play.

The Green Wave have a good chance to move to 2-0 in league action today. UTSA is a team that has a 20.1% TO%, which ranks 66th per Torvik in games against Division I opponents. And yet, the Roadrunners have allowed over a point per possession in all but one of their 10 games against Division I opponents. They’ve actually allowed at least 1.1 PPP in five of them. This is not a good defensive team, even with a lot of takeaways.

Now imagine them against a Tulane squad that only has a 15.7% TO%, which ranks 71st. The Green Wave have played one of the worst schedules in the country, making their record that much more unimpressive, but this is too talented of a team to keep playing that way.

I think they have a good offensive showing tonight and cover the number against a UTSA team that fouls a ton. UTSA is 332nd in FT Rate and Tulane is shooting over 76% at the stripe.

Pick: Tulane -5.5

Ohio Bobcats (-4.5, 148) at Central Michigan Chippewas

7 p.m. ET

MACtion in Mount Pleasant brings Ohio and Central Michigan together for the conference opener for both teams. The stats show Ohio as the worst 3-point defense in the nation, but that is a byproduct of their first four games of the season. James Madison, UNC Asheville, Illinois State, and Memphis combined to go 44-of-82 (53.7%) from beyond the arc. Since then, Ohio has still had a couple of hiccups here and there, but has allowed a 36.4% mark, due in large part to Morehead State’s 10-of-23 performance.

Central Michigan has played a tougher schedule, especially of late, but they’re only shooting 28.6% from 3. This is a good spot for Ohio to get some positive regression in the 3P% defense department. Also, Ohio runs teams off the 3-point line, allowing just a 31.8% 3P Rate.

Meanwhile, the Bobcats draw a CMU team allowing opponents to shoot a 3 nearly 46% of the time and the Bobcats are a little more than a full percent above the national average at 34.4%. Ohio also gets to the rim at a higher rate than the Chippewas.

Lastly, CMU has a 21.9% TO% on offense and Ohio ranks in the top 85 in TO% on offense and defense, so they should have some extra possessions to work with here.

Pick: Ohio -4.5

Long Beach State Beach at Cal State Bakersfield Roadrunners (-5, 134.5)

9:30 p.m. ET

Long Beach State and Cal State Bakersfield battle it out in Big West action tonight and I’m looking at the Under. These are two inefficient offensive teams, particularly on 2-point shots. Bakersfield has a 45.2% 2P% against Division I opponents that ranks 329th per Torvik. Long Beach State is at 46.9%, which is 301st. 

Specifically, both teams have problems finishing at the rim with a 53% and 51.5% FG% on Close Twos, respectively. The weirdest part about that for Bakersfield is that they are a really good offensive rebounding team, but can’t seem to finish those chances. These two teams also play at a really slow tempo, with Bakersfield 321st and LBSU 333rd per Torvik.

Bakersfield also has one of the lowest 3P Rates in the nation, shooting a 3 on less than 25% of their shot attempts. And the two teams turn the ball over a lot, hurting their efficiency numbers even more.

Lastly, Bakersfield has one of the highest FT Rates against in the country, but Rod Barnes instructs his team to foul a lot in games where they are trailing. As the line implies, the Roadrunners should win this game, cutting down the parade to the free throw line. That should keep the scoring at bay a little bit as well.

Pick: Under 134.5

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