MLB Picks Today:
Expert baseball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top MLB picks today for Wednesday, April 15.
Check out Greg’s Daily MLB Lines and his Baseball Betting Show Podcast. Also, check out our MLB Betting Splits and tools from our friends at Ballpark Pal, including Strikeout Prop Projections and the MLB YRFI Report.
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6:40 PM Eastern
Chicago Cubs vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Phillies starting pitcher Jesús Luzardo is coming off of a 2025 season in which he had a 3.92 ERA despite a low 2.90 fielding independent with 0.8 home runs and 10.6 strikeouts per nine innings, while Cubs starting pitcher Shota Imanaga last season had a respectable 3.73 ERA, but a 4.86 fielding independent with 7.3 strikeouts and 1.9 home runs allowed per nine innings and faces a Phillies lineup that was third in scoring at home last season with 5.3 runs per game.
Pick: Phillies Moneyline -130
Greg’s Handicap: Phillies -153
Kansas City Royals vs. Detroit Tigers
Royals starting pitcher Seth Lugo had a 4.15 ERA last season, but a 5.06 fielding independent with 1.7 home runs and 3.4 walks per nine innings while Tigers starting pitcher Jack Flaherty had a 4.64 ERA last season with 1.3 home runs per nine innings allowed, but his 3.85 fielding independent with 10.5 strikeouts points towards positivity, while the lineup has been reliable at home, averaging 5.7 runs per game in Detroit entering Tuesday after ranking third in the American League in runs per game at home last season with nearly five runs per game.
Pick: Tigers Moneyline -125 and Over 8 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Tigers -154 and Total 8.3
Washington Nationals vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
The Nationals bats have been off to a hot start to the season, ranking second in the league with 5.9 runs per game entering Tuesday, but may be due for regression after ranking 20th in scoring last season with just over 4.2 runs per game and the same goes for a Pirates lineup that was seventh in scoring entering Tuesday with over 5.1 runs per game after ranking last in scoring with 3.6 runs per game, while Pirates starting pitcher Carmen Mlodzinski has a 2.51 ERA through his first three starts this season with 9.4 strikeouts per nine innings without allowing a home run.
Pick: Nationals vs. Pirates Under 9.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Total 8.7
6:45 PM Eastern
San Francisco Giants vs. Cincinnati Reds
Reds starting pitcher Rhett Lowder has made just nine career MLB starts, but has been highly effective in them, posting a 1.91 ERA with just one home run allowed in 47 total innings while Giants starting pitcher Tyler Mahle had a low 2.16 ERA with just 0.5 home runs per nine innings allowed, but his 3.37 fielding independent points towards regression and through three starts this season he has a 4.30 ERA with 4.3 walks per nine innings allowed and is backed up by a lineup that entered Tuesday last in the National League in scoring with 3.2 runs per game.
Pick: Reds Moneyline +104
Greg’s Handicap: Reds -142
7:15 PM Eastern
Miami Marlins vs. Atlanta Braves
Marlins starting pitcher Chris Paddack is coming off of a rough 2025 season in which he posted a 5.35 ERA with 1.8 home runs per nine innings allowed and through three starts this season has a 6.14 ERA while giving up 1.8 home runs per nine innings, but is supported by a lineup that last season ranked second in road scoring among National League teams with 4.8 runs per game, and though Braves starting pitcher Bryce Elder has looked improved this season with just two earned runs allowed across his first three starts in 17 2/3 innings, he is coming off of a 2025 season in which he had a 5.30 ERA with 1.4 home runs per nine innings allowed.
Pick: Marlins vs. Braves Over 8.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Total 9.1
7:40 PM Eastern
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Chicago White Sox
Rays starting pitcher Jesse Schultens struggled as a member of the Chicago White Sox in 2023, posting a 5.29 ERA before dealing with injuries throughout the 2024 and 2025 seasons and does look better than ever, throwing 4 2/3 scoreless innings in his first appearance of the season while White Sox starting pitcher Sean Burke had a 4.22 ERA with a 4.92 fielding independent with 1.5 home runs and 4.2 walks per nine innings last season and is supported by a bullpen that is 26th in ERA to begin the season at 5.35, while the Rays lineup entered Tuesday seventh in the league in scoring with nearly 4.7 runs per game.
Pick: Rays Moneyline -104 and Over 8 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Rays -136 and Total 8.4
9:40 PM Eastern
Texas Rangers vs. Athletics
Athletics starting pitcher JT Ginn has struggled since the 2025 season began, posting a 4.88 ERA with 1.6 home runs and three walks per nine innings allowed in this span and the Athletics as a whole have had a difficult time pitching in Sacramento, as the team entered Tuesday with a 7.88 ERA at home, which is the highest mark in the American League, while Rangers starting pitcher Kumar Rocker struggled to a 5.74 ERA last season with 1.5 home runs and 3.2 walks per nine innings allowed while the Athletics offense entered Tuesday averaging six runs per game at home.
Pick: Rangers vs. Athletics Over 9.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Total 10.2
10:10 PM Eastern
New York Mets vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Since becoming a starting pitcher for the New York Mets at the beginning of the 2025 season, Clay Holmes has a 3.33 ERA, but the amount of contact he gives up is alarming, getting only 6.9 strikeouts per nine innings and has a 4.09 fielding independent and faces a Dodgers lineup that entered Tuesday leading the league in scoring with over 5.9 runs per game, while starting pitcher Shohei Ohtani owns a 2.29 ERA and 2.15 fielding independent as a member of the Dodgers with 10.7 strikeouts and 0.5 home runs allowed per nine innings.
Pick: Dodgers Run Line -1.5 +105 and Over 8 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Dodgers -1.5 -112 and Total 8.6
