College Basketball Best Bets Today:

The best example of the early college basketball season is today, as we only have 51 games on a Saturday. Basketball doesn’t want to share the spotlight with football and games on campus are unlikely to be well-attended. We’ll have nearly three times the games on Saturdays in the not-too-distant future. Only 32 of today’s games by my count will be on home campus floors, as the tournaments that began on Thursday either wrap up or keep going here.

Games started very early at 8 a.m. PT. As usual, I won’t even start handicapping a game for the article that starts before 4 or 5 p.m. ET, so that cut off a decent chunk of today’s schedule, but I want to be fair to readers and give them lead time.

 

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We have a ton of content rolling in here at VSiN on a daily basis, so you may want to bookmark our College Basketball Articles page so you can find this and also Greg Peterson’s top CBB bets of the day.

Tracking sheet is here. 2023-24 for reference is here.

This article will run Monday-Saturday. Lines will be from DraftKings, as they are widely available to readers. Shop around for the best prices.

Shout-outs to Bart Torvik, Erik Haslam, and Ken Pomeroy, as those are my three primary resources for information when handicapping.

Check the latest college basketball odds for legal U.S. sportsbooks across the country and our Vegas odds if you share a state with us here at VSiN. Also, give the college basketball betting splits a look for these or any other college basketball games today have your interest.

Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publish.

Wofford Terriers at Milwaukee Panthers (-3, 148.5)

4 p.m. ET

I hate to pick an early game based on my cut-off, but I like the Panthers in this one and wanted to get it out there. Milwaukee and Wofford are both in back-to-backs here, as the Panthers beat Portland State by 17 and the Terriers beat St. Thomas by eight in an 81-73 victory. It was a really strong shooting effort for Wofford, going 30-of-55 from the floor and 10-of-22 from 3.

We have a huge discrepancy in shot share here, as Milwaukee has a 46.5% shot share on Close Twos and Wofford has a 29.1% share, but that’s because Wofford loves to bomb away from 3. Over 50% of their shot attempts this season have been 3s. Milwaukee was a top-30 team in shot share on Close Twos last season.

I will admit that this could be a high-variance game. Teams like Wofford that have a “ready, aim, fire” mentality have a wide range of outcomes. But, with this being a back-to-back, I think Milwaukee has some potential advantages. First, the Panthers got to sleep in their own beds, for whatever that’s worth. But, second, long-distance shooting requires legs. Stopping a team from getting to the rim requires legs on defense.

I think the Terriers could struggle in those two areas playing a second game in less than 24 hours. Milwaukee is obviously in a similar situation and actually has less rest from playing later last night, but the comforts of home and their ability to get to the rim are difference makers for me.

As it is, Wofford has allowed at least 1.071 points per possession to every Division I opponent. They’ve lost games with 1.119 and 1.077 PPP on offense because of the defense.

Pick: Milwaukee -3

Rider Broncs at Bucknell Bison (-4, 141.5)

7 p.m. ET

Bucknell was good to us on Thursday night with a blowout win over NJIT and we’ll go back to the well in Lewisburg again today as the Bison host Rider. The Broncs will play their sixth straight road game of the season, as their travels have taken them to LA, San Diego, Baltimore, Annapolis, and Iowa City to this point. This trip was about a three-hour bus ride for the MAAC member.

Rider has played a better slate of opponents, but I like this Bucknell team for second-year head coach John Griffin. Everything runs through Noah Williamson and that is a sound strategy. At 6-foot-11 (listed at 7-feet last season), he is a matchup nightmare in the block and I think 6-foot-9 Ruot Bijiek has been deployed effectively as well. Those two guys get high-percentage looks at the rim and teams that don’t have great interior defense haven’t been able to stop them.

Rider doesn’t have a lot of height outside of 6-foot-9 Tariq Ingraham, who is a decent scorer, but not much of a defender or rebounder. The Broncs are missing a lot of last season’s production, including Mervin James, who had 123 of the team’s 356 shot makes at the rim. Rider is a team that shies away from taking a lot of 3s and took nearly as many mid-range jumpers as shots at the rim last season.

Griffin has gotten his Bison to play at the rim more this season and get opponents in foul trouble. While Rider has played a lot of guys this season, I don’t think their lineup is deep with talent. Bucknell is on an upswing with the 38-year-old head coach, who, ironically, was an assistant under Kevin Baggett from 2013-15 when he was hired at Rider.

So Griffin has familiarity and I think he’s evolved more than Baggett and Rider have.

Pick: Bucknell -4

Eastern Washington Eagles at Cal Baptist Lancers (-7, 153)

8 p.m. ET

A pace war is coming in this game, as Eastern Washington and Cal Baptist do battle in Riverside. Eastern Washington really wants to push the tempo with first-year head coach Dan Monson, who spent a long time doing that at Long Beach State. Cal Baptist wants to really slow the game down.

I’m not sure that they’ll be able to play at the pace that they want. Monson’s Eagles have a 22.9% TO% this season in their five Division I games. They’ve been pressing the issue defensively, and while Cal Baptist has a top-five TO% on offense, it’s going to force them to speed up a little bit.

Honestly, head coach Rick Croy should be fine with that. EWU has allowed at least 1.046 points per possession in every game, surrendering 76, 86, 84, 82, and 96 points. Cal Baptist gets to the rim at a high rate, coming into this game with a 52.2% shot share on Close Twos. They are only shooting 52.1% on those shots, so some positive regression should be coming.

EWU has a 44.3% shot share on Close Twos and has finished at a 65.9% clip, as the Eagles are a top-60 offense in 2P%. Cal Baptist is getting too many good looks to keep performing badly in that area and Monson’s crew has put up those strong numbers on a tough schedule that features four top-150 teams per Torvik and two top-80 teams.

Opponents have been raining 3s on these two squads. Cal Baptist has allowed a 40% 3P% and EWU has allowed a 46.8% 3P%. I think EWU gets what they want here and that’s a high-scoring affair, but I also think that the offensive efficiency that they have shown is the difference here. I think they can make Cal Baptist uncomfortable with the pressure and pace of this one. I like the Eagles and also lean Over the total.

Pick: Eastern Washington +7

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