College Basketball Best Bets Today:

We’re greeted by 41 games on Tuesday, as the college basketball schedule ramps back up a bit. Marquee games are in short supply, but we’ve got some pretty compelling action across the country. Some games also would be better if the teams were performing better this season, but that isn’t the schedule makers’ fault.

It should be an interesting evening and hopefully one with some good betting opportunities.

 

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Tracking sheet is here. 2023-24 for reference is here.

This article will run Monday-Saturday. Lines will be from DraftKings, as they are widely available to readers. Shop around for the best prices.

Shout-outs to Bart Torvik, Erik Haslam, and Ken Pomeroy, as those are my three primary resources for information when handicapping.

Check the latest college basketball odds for legal U.S. sportsbooks across the country and our Vegas odds if you share a state with us here at VSiN. Also, give the college basketball betting splits a look for these or any other college basketball games today have your interest.

Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publish.

Clemson Tigers (-2, 133.5) at South Carolina Gamecocks

7 p.m. ET

I’ve got more of a marquee game than usual that I like in this matchup, as we’ll see Clemson take on South Carolina. The Tigers beat an objectively better Gamecocks team last season by a 72-67 count at Littlejohn Coliseum. This one flips to Colonial Life Arena, so we do have a change of venue, but I’m expecting a similar outcome with the same winning team.

This is the type of game where South Carolina is likely to miss a guy like Meechie Johnson. Clemson is a much better opponent than most of what SC has faced this season, as KenPom actually their strength of schedule 264th in Net Rating, 222nd in Offensive Rating, and 301st in Defensive Rating. That is a huge difference from what Torvik has for the strength of schedule, but the Gamecocks have played two top-100 teams per his rankings and they’ve lost 87-71 and 75-66.

Clemson is likely to have an advantage in the turnover battle with a top-40 TO% on defense. They’re also likely to have the edge on the glass with a top-40 ORB%. They’re also the better jump-shooting team in this one. Against better defensive teams, Norfolk State transfer Jamarii Thomas has struggled from an assist-to-turnover standpoint, including five turnovers against Towson and a 2-to-2 ratio against Xavier.

In Clemson’s two losses, they’ve allowed 1.185 and 1.166 points per possession. I don’t think this Gamecocks offense is gifted enough to put up numbers akin to that. In Clemson’s big wins over San Francisco, Penn State, and Kentucky, they’ve held those teams to .894, .967, and .974 PPP. I think that’s closer to what we see tonight.

Pick: Clemson -2

George Mason Patriots at Duke Blue Devils (-19.5, 136.5)

7 p.m. ET

George Mason heads to Cameron Indoor for this matchup against Duke. Per the Duke Academic Calendar for 2024-25, last night was the final night of exam week, which means that a lot of students have left for the winter break. While going to a Duke basketball game is probably a great time, a game against George Mason isn’t going to be worth staying around for in the minds of many, who likely partied over the weekend and peaced out for the holidays.

I think it’ll be a subdued environment this evening against a George Mason team that will absolutely bring its own energy. The “Patriot Pressure” defense for Tony Skinn closes off time and space for opponents, leading to a 41.8% eFG% against on the season. They’ve held opponents to just 27.5% from 3 and 42.3% on 2s in Division I games. While the Blue Devils represent an enormous step up in class, this is GMU’s first game in 10 days and they had three nice wins over James Madison, UNC Asheville, and Tulane, with the last two by 22 and 12.

Against weaker foes, George Mason has a 47.2% shot share on Close Twos, so they do get to the rim and that is the hope for Tony Skinn’s offense. Duke settles for a lot of 3s, so this game may be contingent on how they shoot from there, but the Patriots do close out well, holding opponents to 27.5% with a 44% 3P Rate. If nothing else, they should contest most of the 3s. The Patriots have the 19th-highest Proximity against per Haslametrics, so they’re forcing teams into a ton of long jumpers.

I think all of that is enough to stay within 19 points here in a game likely played to around 66 or 67 possessions.

Pick: George Mason +19.5

Marist Red Foxes (-2.5, 134.5) at Stony Brook Seawolves

7 p.m. ET

A couple New England teams come together as Marist and Stony Brook square off. The last time Marist was on the floor, they completed a sweep of MAAC foes in their first couple of conference games of the season with wins over Mount St. Mary’s and Manhattan. They’ll return to league action after the New Year, but have some interesting geographic games in between with Stony Brook, UMBC, and Binghamton.

Stony Brook has played a much tougher schedule to this point, but this is an awful defensive team. They’re not very good on offense either, as they’ve struggled in a variety of areas. They did beat MAAC member Rider last time out to snap an ugly five-game losing streak, but that was a big outlier in two areas.

Stony Brook was 13-of-25 from 3 and Rider was just 2-of-12. Outscoring Rider by 33 from beyond the arc led to a 17-point win. For a Stony Brook team shooting 29.7% from 3, I wouldn’t expect a repeat performance of that tonight. Marist is shooting just shy of 35% from 3, so they should be able to make some shots in this one.

Marist only has a 28.8% shot share on Close Twos, down significantly from last season’s 37.6% rate that ranked higher than the national average. I think they’ll be able to get to the rim here against a Stony Brook squad allowing opponents to shoot 72% on the interior with a 42% shot share against.

Marist has the more efficient offense, should win the turnover battle, and also looks to have a noteworthy advantage on the defensive glass. Stony Brook is definitely stepping down in class, but Marist is a well-coached team under John Dunne.

Pick: Marist -2.5

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