College Basketball Best Bets Today:

Back to normal for me today, as the holidays are over for my purposes. Some good time spent at home with friends and family to recoup some lost energy leads into the final day of 2024. We’ve got 30 games on the college basketball slate and most of them are early. Quite a few of them are very good, including some top-tier conference matchups this afternoon.

Unfortunately, a lot of early games means that the card really gets cut down for me, as the morning PT start time of this article doesn’t help the ET crowd much. As usual, I’m looking at the games that start no earlier than 4 p.m. ET or so, which leaves me 13 games for Tuesday.

 

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Tracking sheet is here. 2023-24 for reference is here.

This article will run Monday-Saturday (not next week, see exception above). Lines will be from DraftKings, as they are widely available to readers. Shop around for the best prices.

Shout-outs to Bart Torvik, Erik Haslam, and Ken Pomeroy, as those are my three primary resources for information when handicapping.

Check the latest college basketball odds for legal U.S. sportsbooks across the country and our Vegas odds if you share a state with us here at VSiN. Also, give the college basketball betting splits a look for these or any other college basketball games today have your interest.

Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publish.

UNLV Rebels (-7, 133) at Air Force Falcons

4 p.m. ET

One of those 4 p.m. games is a daytime tilt in Colorado Springs between UNLV and Air Force. The Rebels are only 7-5 on the season, but all five of their losses have come against top-50 teams as ranked by Torvik. They haven’t won a road or neutral game yet, but those have been against Mississippi State, Northwestern, Creighton, and Dayton. This line has come down a point, perhaps due to the expected slow tempo of this game or maybe due to their AFH (away from home) results, but this is a dramatic step down in competition from those matchups.

Air Force has one win against a top-300 team this season, as they beat Jacksonville State earlier this year at home. UNLV is more accustomed to playing in elevation and it is a much easier, and far more frequent, trip for the Rebels program. Air Force has played three games with less than 1 point per possession allowed – Mercyhurst (349th, first year as a D-I team), Sacramento State (347th, lost by 2), and Stony Brook (339th). UNLV is a borderline top-100 team for Torvik and KenPom.

Air Force hasn’t played since Dec. 21 against Boise State. UNLV just beat Fresno State by 10 on Saturday and scored 87 points with 1.262 PPP. Fresno was 13-of-29 from 3 to keep it close. Air Force has shot well from 3 this season, checking in at 36%, but they’ve played the 227th-ranked schedule per Torvik and 314th per KenPom using Net Rating, including the 344th-ranked set of defensive opponents.

Opponents have converted at a 63.6% clip on Close Twos against Air Force, despite the large presence of 7-footer Wesley Celichowski. I think the Rebels get what they want on offense here.

Pick: UNLV -7

Marquette Golden Eagles (-6.5, 141.5) at Providence Friars

6 p.m. ET

I can’t imagine we’ll see a big crowd in Providence for this one on New Year’s Eve night with the students still home for the holidays as these two teams get back to work in the Big East. There is a lot of speculation that we’re not going to see Bryce Hopkins either. The Providence standout returned for three games and looked good with 16, 16, and 19 points against BYU, Rhode Island, and DePaul, but then missed the games against St. Bonaventure and St. John’s, where Providence played admirably in losses by 4 and 2.

There are some whispers that Hopkins may just take a medical redshirt as he seems to still be making his way back from injury. Even if he goes, this is a Friars team that has been bad on defense for a while. After starting the season 5-0 against a very weak schedule, Providence has faced nothing but top-100 teams. In those games, they’ve allowed 1.131, 1.126, 1.344, 1.037, 1.014, .838 (DePaul OT win), 1.196, and 1.004 points per possession. 

Marquette comes into this game 19th in adjusted offensive efficiency for Torvik and 17th in Offensive Rating for KenPom. They’ve done so against a top-25 slate of opposing defenses per KenPom’s ratings as well. 

Add in the fact that Marquette is fifth in TO% and 10th in TO% on defense, while Providence forces very few turnovers and ranks below the national average in TO% on offense and it sure looks like the Golden Eagles will get some extra possessions here.

I also think Marquette could speed up Providence as a byproduct of the takeaways, plus these two teams haven’t played in 11 and 10 days, respectively, so they’ll be eager to get back out there.

Pick: Marquette -6.5

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