College Basketball Best Bets Today:

Our first day in a post-college football world features 35 college basketball games. We’ve got some real bangers today from the SEC, ACC, and Big Ten to go along with some of the one-bid leagues and stronger mid-majors. This is a “something for everyone” sort of card, whether you like to play the premier games or dig a little bit further down the board.

Unlike yesterday’s holiday slate, we have everything packaged neat and tidy with our first tip-off at 6:30 p.m. ET in Ypsilanti, Michigan between the Ohio Bobcats and the currently-under-investigation Eastern Michigan Eagles.

 

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Tracking sheet is here. 2023-24 for reference is here.

This article will run Monday-Saturday (not next week, see exception above). Lines will be from DraftKings, as they are widely available to readers. Shop around for the best prices.

Shout-outs to Bart Torvik, Erik Haslam, and Ken Pomeroy, as those are my three primary resources for information when handicapping.

Check the latest college basketball odds for legal U.S. sportsbooks across the country and our Vegas odds if you share a state with us here at VSiN. Also, give the college basketball betting splits a look for these or any other college basketball games today have your interest.

Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publish.

Bowling Green Falcons at Miami (OH) RedHawks (-9.5, 151.5)

7 p.m. ET

A high-scoring expectation is the first storyline in this MAC matchup between Bowling Green and Miami. The second is the RedHawks offense. This type of environment should benefit them greatly, as Miami is 27th in the nation in eFG%, 51st in 2P%, and 42nd in 3P% in games against Division I opponents per Torvik.

They should be getting some extra possessions in this game as well, as they’ve got a 20.4% TO%. Bowling Green has taken good care of the ball this season, but Miami’s pressure defense without fouling has aided the offense. Even last time out against Kent State, Miami only had a 7.7% TO% on defense, but had 1.085 PPP, their lowest output in a MAC game so far and won by nine at Kent State.

They’ve also held their last three opponents under a point per possession, so the defense is stepping up a bit also. The RedHawks are shooting over 37% from 3 and take a 3-pointer on a much higher rate of shots compared to Bowling Green, so this feels like a game where the RedHawks are scoring in 3s and the Falcons are scoring in 2s.

Bowling Green does get to the rim a lot, but they haven’t finished well, shooting just 53% on Close Two shot attempts. They’re also 272nd in eFG% defense and 314th in 2P% defense, so the RedHawks should be able to get their buckets here.

Pick: Miami (OH) -9.5

Louisville Cardinals at SMU Mustangs (-1.5, 158.5)

9 p.m. ET

Louisville and SMU square off tonight in Dallas. It’s still weird to talk about this as an ACC game, but that’s exactly what it is, as the Mustangs play their fourth home game in conference play. To this point, SMU is 5-2 in conference action, but there are two data points staring me in the face and they are the ones against Duke and North Carolina.

The five wins for SMU have been Virginia twice, Boston College, Georgia Tech, and Miami (FL). Per Torvik’s ACC rankings, those are the four worst teams in the conference. SMU has played the 17th-ranked conference strength of schedule out of 18 teams in the league. And they got pumped by both Duke and UNC.

Duke is a legitimate National Championship contender and I don’t think that Louisville is, but North Carolina is rated close to the Cardinals.

Louisville leads the nation in Haslametrics’ Away From Home metric, as they’ve gone 6-2 away from the friendly confines and their losses are a neutral-site third game in three days to Oklahoma around Thanksgiving and an eight-point loss to rival Kentucky in a game where the Cardinals still had 1.165 points per possession.

I’ll tip my cap to Andy Enfield’s team if they prove that they can beat a high-caliber opponent, but they are 2-4 in games against Top 100 opponents as defined by Torvik and 0-3 against Top 50 foes. I think the move to the ACC is good long-term, but they’ll struggle against better teams, as they did with .950 and .891 PPP against Duke and UNC.

Pick: Louisville +1.5

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