College Basketball Best Bets Today:

We’ve got a nice, round number for the Wednesday slate with 50 games on tap. After several marquee matchups on Tuesday, we scale back and see a lot of smaller conferences on Hump Day, but there are still a few top games throughout the Big East, Big Ten, and SEC speckled throughout the card.

Each day adds data points against peers for teams now that we’re into conference play, so the hope would be that we are able to find out more and more to help us pick games as the season plays out.

 

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Tracking sheet is here. 2023-24 for reference is here.

This article will run Monday-Saturday (not next week, see exception above). Lines will be from DraftKings, as they are widely available to readers. Shop around for the best prices.

Shout-outs to Bart Torvik, Erik Haslam, and Ken Pomeroy, as those are my three primary resources for information when handicapping.

Check the latest college basketball odds for legal U.S. sportsbooks across the country and our Vegas odds if you share a state with us here at VSiN. Also, give the college basketball betting splits a look for these or any other college basketball games today have your interest.

Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publish.

Coastal Carolina Chanticleers at Appalachian State Mountaineers (-8, 127.5)

6:30 p.m. ET

We’ve got a Sun Belt battle between Coastal Carolina and App State to examine here, as the Chanticleers look to ride the wave of their first conference win of the season. The Mountaineers are hoping to do the same after a nice win over Texas State, as they’ve been struggling. Head coach Dustin Kerns lost a ton of talent from last year’s 27-win team.

I find Coastal to be a team that should keep improving as the season goes. Head coach Justin Gray turned Western Carolina around in very short order, improving by seven wins from Year 1 to Year 2 and then posted a 22-win season in 2023-24 before taking the Coastal gig.

The Chants are a top-50 defense by eFG% and that’s with a trio of major blips against Jacksonville State, Winthrop, and Arkansas State. For the most part, they’ve been very stout defensively, despite not forcing many turnovers. But, they’ve also been much better than anticipated on offense. They’ve averaged over a point per possession in all but one of their last 11 games. Two of those have been against lower-division opponents, but they’ve had 1.007, 1.067, and 1.103 PPP in three Sun Belt games.

Possessions will be at a premium here with two teams that play at slow tempos. App State is 335th in the nation in adjusted tempo per Torvik and Coastal Carolina is 354th. Neither team forces a lot of turnovers, but it is worth noting that Coastal is an excellent defensive rebounding team and they do a tremendous job of keeping teams away from the rim.

In a game that is likely to be played under 65 possessions, I think it’s a big ask for App State to cover this number, especially as a team shooting just 64.7% at the free throw line.

Pick: Coastal Carolina +8

Western Carolina Catamounts at Wofford Terriers (-13, 143.5)

7 p.m. ET

Gray’s former team is in action as a big underdog tonight, as Western Carolina visits Wofford. The Catamounts are off to an 0-2 start in SoCon play, getting blasted at home 90-61 by Furman and 88-69 by Samford. I don’t think the path gets any easier tonight against Wofford.

By KenPom numbers, Wofford has played the 60th-ranked schedule in the nation by Net Rating, with the 52nd-ranked slate by Offensive Rating and 75th by Defensive Rating. Western Carolina is 352nd in the nation in Offensive Rating by KP, so this is a tremendous step down in class for a Terriers defense that has had some hard times.

Wofford hasn’t been as accomplished on offense this season as in past years, but they’ve played that tough schedule and there are other positive signs. At least for tonight. Wofford should get whatever they want at the rim against a Catamounts crew allowing a 55.9% 2P% and a 64.1% FG% on Close Twos. The Terriers are also at home, where they’ve only played three games against Division I opponents this season. They’ve played 10 of their 15 games in road or neutral settings, which can have a negative impact on shooting numbers.

Lastly, with a huge discrepancy in tempo between the two teams, I think WCU’s pace of play will speed Wofford up a little bit more, giving them more opportunities to score against a bad defense.

Pick: Wofford -13

Rice Owls at North Texas Mean Green (-11, 124)

9 p.m. ET

Defense is in the forecast in Denton tonight between Rice and North Texas. The Owls and Mean Green should play a very slow-paced game tonight, as the teams rank 294th (Rice) and 357th (UNT) in adjusted tempo per Torvik. Rice just played a game against Charlotte to 57 possessions last time out in a 68-55 win.

Over their last 10 games, Rice has held the opposition to a 43.3% eFG%, a 27.4% 3P%, and a 44.8% 2P%. On the season, opponents are only shooting 44.6% on 2s and 28% on 3s. This is also a Rice team that fares pretty well on the glass, something that could neutralize that strength for North Texas.

The Mean Green have played a tougher schedule, but both teams take a lot of jump shots. UNT has a shot share on Close Twos of 34.2% and Rice sits at 32.3%, so I’m not expecting a lot of chances at the rim, especially when you consider the teams have shot shares against of 32.1% and 33%.

In a game with limited possessions and bad shot selection, points become that much more valuable and Rice is getting a big head start here.

Pick: Rice +11

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