College Basketball Bets
Today is an oddsmaker’s nightmare. A full day of college football, a full NFL card tomorrow, NHL and NBA, a big UFC fight card, and 38 college basketball games. That’s a lot of stuff to line, manage, and offer to customers. This is hardly what we usually see on Saturdays, when we’ll have upwards of 150 college hoops games once the season really gets going, especially in conference play, but still.
Unfortunately for me, with my self-imposed restrictions on tip times in the interest of giving readers the chance to check out the content, the card is cut down quite a bit for me. There are only 20 games that start at 5 p.m. ET or later. But, that’s still enough to pick from and hopefully find some winners.
For more college basketball best bets today, check out Greg Peterson’s daily article.
As always, I want to give a shout-out to Bart Torvik (BartTorvik.com), Erik Haslam (Haslametrics.com), and KenPom, as they provide a lot of great data. This season, we’ve also connected with CBBAnalytics.com to access their data and I’ll be working that into my article. Use promo code VSIN for $30 off at CBB Analytics and find your betting edge.
This article will run Monday-Saturday. Lines will be from DraftKings, as they are widely available to readers. Shop around for the best prices.
Check the latest college basketball odds for legal U.S. sportsbooks across the country and our Vegas odds if you share a state with us here at VSiN. Also, give the college basketball betting splits (DraftKings) and Circa CBB Betting Splits a look for these or any other college basketball games today have your interest.
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publish.
Western Carolina Catamounts at Lipscomb Bisons (-5.5, 152.5)
5 p.m. ET
Lipscomb is on my radar again today after picking against them on Wednesday against Belmont. The Bruins turned the ball over 22 times, so they failed to cover the double-digit spread in a seven-point win. But, the same concerns with Lipscomb were still present. They were just 10-of-27 on 2s, settled for 45 3-point attempts, and once again struggled to defend inside the arc. Even with 22 turnovers in a game played to 78 possessions, Belmont had .964 PPP while going 23-of-53 from the floor, specifically 15-of-25 on 2s.
In four games against Division I opponents, Lipscomb has allowed a 59.4% 2P% and a 41.7% 3P%. When they have the ball, they’re only shooting 27.6% from 3 and 45.2% on 2s.
Looking at these two graphics from CBB Analytics about Lipscomb’s offense this season and last season:
2025-26
2024-25
(If you want access to data like this, head over to CBBAnalytics.com and use the promo code VSiN30 for $30 off)
A few things here. The first is that Lipscomb obviously misses the interior presence of Jacob Ognacevic. The notable drop in shot share and FG% at the rim definitely makes it hard to score. Ognacevic was a 73% guy on Close Twos and also a 53.4% guy from the midrange, not to mention a 41.2% guy from 3. They’re also shooting far worse from 3 without that interior presence and also his shooting prowess.
Head coach Kevin Carroll replaced Lennie Acuff and was an assistant on his staff prior to coaching at D-II Trevecca. So, the schemes and the executions should be similar, but the Bisons simply don’t have the same players without Ognacevic, Will Pruitt, Joe Anderson, and even Dylan Faulkner, a 69% guy on Close Twos last season.
Western Carolina has a lot of returnees this season for Tim Craft. As Blue Ribbon Yearbook noted, the Catamounts were 352nd in experience per KenPom last season. Not only did most of the roster leave, but so did head coach Justin Gray. It’s not surprising that it was such a transitional year for WCU.
After getting crushed by Cincinnati and Duke, the Catamounts have won three in a row as they head out onto the road for a game before a Thanksgiving break. In four games against D-I opponents, they’ve had the offensive rebounding edge in three of them, including the games against Cincinnati and Duke. That’s no small accomplishment for a team going up against much more athletic rosters. Stetson was the only team to outrebound WCU on the offensive glass, but the Catamounts were 28-of-57 from the floor in that game, so they didn’t have a lot of chances at ORebs.
I think this line has run out too far on Lipscomb, who just isn’t the same team as past versions.
Pick: Western Carolina +5.5 (-115)
UL Monroe Warhawks vs. Morehead State Eagles (-5.5, 145.5)
7 p.m. ET
A multi-team event here in Johnson City, TN, where Morehead State faced and lost to the host team, East Tennessee State, yesterday. So this is a back-to-back for Morehead State against a rested UL Monroe squad. But I think it might be a good thing that the Eagles played yesterday. They got a lay of the land and a feel for the arena in game conditions, while the Warhawks have probably just had a shootaround or two.
The Warhawks are really bad on both ends of the floor, but especially on defense. They allowed 1.362 PPP to a pedestrian Northern Illinois team to open the season and allowed well over 1 PPP in losses to Houston Christian and Lamar. It’s been a rough start for first-year head coach Phil Cunningham, who took over when Keith Richard retired after last season. None of the starters from that team stayed, which probably isn’t a terrible thing with a 7-25 record, but this is a highly inexperienced roster.
Per Blue Ribbon Yearbook, UL Monroe had one player with more than 250 minutes played at the D-I level, but he hasn’t played yet. Brentay Noel was awaiting a waiver that hasn’t come in. Sophomore Krystian Lewis leads the team with a 28.4% Usage Rate and he’s shooting 27% on 2s and 25% on 3s against D-I opponents. There are a lot of bad shooting numbers on this team. To compound a bad defense with an inefficient offense is tough.
Morehead State’s numbers aren’t great either and they’ve lost all four Division I games, but they’ve played Wake Forest, Georgia, Clemson, and ETSU. This is a tremendous step down in class and a good chance for Jonathan Mattox to get his first win this season.
Pick: Morehead State -5.5 (-112)
UT Arlington Mavericks at Weber State Wildcats (-3.5, 151.5)
9 p.m. ET
Quite the interesting game here in Ogden, UT, as UT Arlington is playing a back-to-back in elevation against a rested Weber State team. The Mavericks lost 71-67 to Campbell yesterday in a game that they led nearly wire-to-wire before having an offensive outage in the final five minutes of the second half.
Weber State looks to be without sophomore Trevor Hennig again, as he missed the last game with a sprained ankle. In that last game, Weber State covered for us with a 91-85 win over Campbell laying a short number. Hennig has a 23.1% Usage Rate with 16 PPG, so you would think that he would be a big loss. However, he’s only 16-of-44 from the floor against Division I opponents this season, and he’s the only player with over 50% of the minutes played with an Offensive Rating under 1.
In his absence, Tijan Saine Jr. had his first breakout game with 23 points and he played 36 minutes after only playing 16 in the loss to UC Irvine. It was also Weber State’s first D-I game against a team outside the top 110, with losses to Utah (in OT), Utah State, and UC Irvine. This is another relative step down in class for the Wildcats and a team that could be sluggish on the defensive end with the elevation in this multi-team event.
The Wildcats have a 50.2% shot share on Close Twos per Torvik and that ranks 14th in the nation. They’ve struggled with jump shots, so that’s something that needs to improve, but it sure seemed to in their first D-I home game last time out. This will be their second, so maybe a chance to get some momentum going.
Both teams are looking at some 3-point defensive regression. Weber State is third in the nation in 3P% defense vs. D-I opponents at 21.4% and UT Arlington is fifth at 23%. So, we’ll see how quickly that regresses for both teams. Neither team shoots a high rate of 3s, so maybe it won’t be today.
Nevertheless, with the back-to-back in elevation for the Mavericks and a potentially more efficient Weber State offense without Hennig (assuming he doesn’t play), I like the Wildcats here. If Hennig does play, well, he is the team’s leading scorer and second-leading rebounder, so hopefully he’ll just be smarter with his shot selection.
Pick: Weber State -3.5 (-108)
