College Basketball Odds:
Each day gives us more data points to evaluate in college basketball, especially for the teams that are NCAA Championship hopefuls. By the time we get to the NCAA Tournament, it will be a pretty small subset of teams that have the chance to win in a historical context. You’re primarily looking for teams with great guard play that are well-coached, but there are also some statistical benchmarks to keep in mind as well.
Generally speaking, the team that wins it all will head into the tournament in the top 25 of adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency based on Ken Pomeroy’s rankings. Those are the teams that will often have the best draws as high seeds, but also have the best chance at being consistent because they have multiple scorers, multiple ways to win, and aren’t dependent on one or two star players.
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Are there some teams that fit that criteria now and are good value bets to win the NCAA Championship? I believe that there are and some that have the chance to get stronger as the season goes along. (stats entering Jan. 14)
Michigan Wolverines (30/1)
Michigan seems to have hit a strong stride during Big Ten play, as the Wolverines fit the criteria in the top 20 in both adjusted offensive efficiency and defensive efficiency. They’re also a top 15 team on the offensive side.
Michigan’s three losses are by five points combined. The Wake Forest loss from early in the season isn’t a great one, but the neutral-site losses to Oklahoma and Arkansas aren’t bad at all. This is a deadly efficient team on both sides of the court because they’ve made a ton of shots and have also altered a ton of shots. The one downside right now is the TO% on offense, but that will continue to get better in a Big Ten Conference that doesn’t force a ton of turnovers.
The Wolverines actually started this week No. 1 in the nation in eFG% offense, so they’re clearly getting strong guard play. They also have 7-footers in Vladislav Goldin and Danny Wolf who are excellent in all facets of the game.
Marquette Golden Eagles (40/1)
Marquette fits the criteria as a team that ranks in the top 20 in both adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency for KenPom. Bart Torvik has them in the top 25 in both, as the offense is slightly outpacing the defense. One of the best attributes for Marquette is their turnover margin, as they have the best TO% on offense per Torvik in games against Division I opponents and they’re sixth in TO%.
The TO% on defense is doing a lot of heavy lifting, as they are a little bit of a disappointing defensive team in terms of preventing made shots, but extra possessions are always a positive. The Golden Eagles have four guys in double figures, so there is enough scoring balance, but Kam Jones is a stud.
The Big East is a good conference and Marquette will be favored in nearly every game the rest of the way, so they’ll have a solid record with a strong resume and likely be a No. 1 or No. 2 seed.
Oregon Ducks (70/1)
The Ducks do not fit the top-25 qualifiers on both offense and defense, but they are a top-20 offensive squad. Defensively, they have a few really good players, but maybe don’t have as much balance as needed to grade well. Nevertheless, this is a team with neutral wins over Alabama and Texas A&M, as well as road conference wins against USC, Ohio State, and Penn State by mid-January. Plus, as we all know, Dana Altman is terrific in the conference tournament.
This is a terrific resume with a high strength of schedule, which should lead to a high seed. Oregon’s primary ball handlers are very responsible and there’s a 7-footer in Nate Bittle who can help match up with any other big in the field. There’s some strong, experienced depth on the roster as well.
This one is a bit of a long shot with a team that doesn’t quite match up statistically to the normal contenders, but a team that could get there and could see its price drop as we go forward.
