HomeCollege BasketballCollege Basketball Odds: Value Bets and Futures for the Women's NCAA Tournament

    College Basketball Odds: Value Bets and Futures for the Women’s NCAA Tournament

    Based on historical data and the team profiles from this season, here are the teams Tyler Shoemaker thinks are worth a futures bet to win the Women's NCAA Tournament.

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    Women’s college basketball futures odds and bets

    Yesterday, I wrote about a couple of men’s college basketball teams that fit some historical thresholds on offense and defense, according to the T Shoe Index, that could be worth investing in with a National Championship betting slip. Today, I’m going to do the same thing for the women’s side.

    Women’s basketball is a little trickier to find value because the sport is so top-heavy (Hello, SC and UConn). Nonetheless, we’ll use my rating system to guide us to some potential investments for ladies’ March Madness.

     

    Keep a daily eye on the college basketball odds (Vegas odds) and also take a look at the college basketball betting splits for additional info.

    As a refresher, the T Shoe Index (TSI) is my proprietary rating system that I use for college football, NFL, men’s and women’s college basketball, and WNBA. It is a tempo and opponent-adjusted rating that allows us to answer the question, “How many points would team A be expected to score and allow vs Team B”, based on a myriad of statistical factors.

    Women’s College Basketball Futures Bets to Consider

    Ohio State Buckeyes (+2500)

    As I mentioned, if your jersey doesn’t say “South Carolina”, “LSU”, or “UConn”, it’s a little difficult to be taken seriously as a true National Championship contender, as indicated by the current odds, with South Carolina being just +125 to win the title, and deservedly so. As for the Buckeyes, they’re currently 7th in my TSI power ratings, but over their last five games, they’re basically dead even with South Carolina as the highest-rated team over that span. 

    Am I saying I think Ohio State is better than South Carolina? No. But, if there are metrics indicating they might be playing similarly late in the season, and one team is +125 and the other team is +2500, I think the +2500 team is worth considering. This Lady Buckeyes team is very balanced, with the 15th-rated defense and the 21st-rated offense in the TSI. Again, do I think this is the best team? No. But, when betting futures it’s important to keep the odds in mind, and a +2500 flier on a team with a 30.6 power rating over its last five games is something I’d consider.

    Texas Longhorns (+2500)

    I wrote about the Longhorns in my last futures piece back in December, I believe, and they’re still rated No. 4 in the TSI – ahead of Caitlin Clark and Iowa. Iowa has the second-shortest championship odds at +850, so we’ve got a team in Texas that I have rated higher than Iowa with triple the payout if they win. That’s the exact type of thing we’re looking for with a bet like this in women’s basketball. 

    The Texas offense looks to carry the load for them, as the average national champion of the last 10 years has had a TSI offensive rating of 82.6, while Texas currently has an 84.0 offensive rating. Defensively, they’re fine, with a respectable 54.0, but six points higher than the average of 48.0 for the last 10 champs. Nonetheless, I like the odds here on a team I’ve got 4th in the country. 

    TSI Top 40

    TeamPower
    South Carolina34.9
    U Conn30.4
    LSU29.2
    Texas28.0
    Iowa26.8
    Stanford26.2
    Ohio State25.1
    Gonzaga24.3
    West Virginia21.0
    Utah21.0
    UCLA20.8
    USC20.5
    NC State20.3
    Indiana20.3
    Virginia Tech20.2
    Florida Gulf Coast19.7
    Notre Dame19.6
    Middle Tennessee19.6
    Colorado19.4
    Oregon State18.7
    Stony Brook18.1
    Michigan State18.0
    Baylor18.0
    Duke17.5
    Creighton17.4
    UNLV17.1
    Oklahoma16.6
    Princeton16.4
    Saint Joseph’s16.1
    Alabama16.0
    Kansas State15.9
    Louisville15.3
    Tennessee15.3
    Richmond15.2
    Columbia14.7
    Mississippi State14.4
    Cleveland State13.8
    Texas A&M13.5
    Fairfield12.9
    South Dakota State12.5
    Tyler Shoemaker
    Tyler Shoemaker
    Tyler Shoemaker is the creator of the T Shoe Index, his proprietary ratings and projections system he incorporates into his writing and analysis at VSiN, Cleveland.com and SaturdayGlory.com. He's been with VSiN since the start of the 2023 college football season and covers college football, NFL, men's and women's college basketball, and the WNBA.

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