College Basketball Picks
Fridays are not going to be big college basketball days for most of the season, but that is not the case for the first weekend of the 2026-27 campaign, as we have 59 games on the final work day of the week, including UConn vs. Michigan. The first game tips at 4 p.m. ET and the last game tips at 10:30 p.m. ET, so those who don’t have plans on Friday night can saddle up with some tallboys and get a feel for these teams for this season.
Handicapping early-season college basketball is a big challenge because there are so many new faces and moving parts, but it is also a market that provides a ton of opportunity for those who are prepared. That’s one reason why our 2026-27 College Basketball Betting Guide is so valuable. Also a reason why Steve Makinen’s College Basketball Daily Matchup Ratings will be useful.
As always, I want to give a shout-out to Bart Torvik (BartTorvik.com), Erik Haslam (Haslametrics.com), and KenPom, as they provide a lot of great data.
This article will run Monday-Saturday. Lines will be from DraftKings, as they are widely available to readers. Shop around for the best prices.
Check the latest college basketball odds for legal U.S. sportsbooks across the country and our Vegas odds if you share a state with us here at VSiN. Also, give the college basketball betting splits (DraftKings) and Circa CBB Betting Splits a look for these or any other college basketball games today have your interest.
Odds from Circa Sportsbook or DraftKings Sportsbook (mostly Extra Games) at time of publish.
Valparaiso at Purdue (-19, 148) Prediction
6:30 p.m. ET
Pick: Valparaiso +19
We’ve got a Little Brother vs. Big Brother game here, as Valparaiso heads to West Lafayette to take on Purdue. These games always intrigue me. Things aren’t quite like they used to be, where local kids go to smaller schools and play their hearts out against the bigger schools that didn’t recruit them or didn’t recruit them hard enough. The transfer portal ruined all of that. But it is still a really big game for the Little Brother, which is clearly Valpo here.
Roger Powell Jr. was looking in Aisles 6 and 7 during the offseason, in that he was looking for as many players around or above seven feet tall as possible. Now a sophomore, JT Pettigrew was a good player to keep around, as he only shot 41% on 2s and 28% on 3s, but that was as a freshman who was forced to play down low and bang more than he probably wanted to. The evolution of Carter Hopoi may allow Pettigrew to play more of the style that he wants. Hopoi had eight points, three blocks, and eight rebounds in the opener against Western Illinois over 25 minutes of work. He wasn’t out there a lot with Kai Yu, who transferred in from Bradley, but Yu should be a guy who can alter shots at his height.
Stopping Daniel Jacobsen looks like the key against Purdue right now. The 7-foot-4 monster had 22 points and 11 rebounds, including seven ORebs, in the loss to Gonzaga. Outside of Jacobsen, the rest of the team had just four shot attempts at the rim. Purdue was 14-of-23 from the mid-range and still lost by six, trailing for most of the game. Conversely, Gonzaga was 14-of-20 at the rim and overcame shooting 3-of-17 from the mid-range.
The Boilermakers will run the offense through returnees in Jacobsen and C.J. Cox, but a lot of experience went out the door after last season with Braden Smith, Oscar Cluff, Trey Kaufman-Renn, and Fletcher Loyer. Matt Painter’s teams aren’t scared of the mid-range and those four guys shot 45.1%, 41.3%, 48.3% and 39.7% in those areas. Cox and Jacobsen were very good, but others have to establish themselves as scoring options with long jumpers.
It’s not an offensive philosophy that I love, especially when laying a massive number like this. Purdue was also 327th in adjusted tempo last season, which makes it even tougher to cover big spreads because of the efficiency that is required on both ends of the floor.
Arkansas State at Alabama (-25, 176.5)
7:30 p.m. ET
Pick: Over 176.5
These non-conference games are fun. The pupil faces the teacher here, as Arkansas State head coach Ryan Pannone heads back to Tuscaloosa to take on Nate Oats and the Crimson Tide. Pannone has a lot of stamps his basketball passport, as he started coaching at Wallace State in 2011 and also coached in China, South Korea, Israel, Slovakia, the G League, and the NBA. His most recent stop was three seasons as the assistant for Oats.
He kept up the new standards of the Arkansas State program after Bryan Hodgson left for South Florida. Hodgson had the team’s first 20-win season since Grant McCasland’s one year in Jonesboro back in 2016-17. Pannone was 20-12 in his first year and his team played fast, was very responsible on the defensive glass, and pulled down a top-10 rate of offensive rebounds.
The Red Wolves also played really fast. They were 10th in Torvik’s adjusted tempo numbers. That’s something he certainly picked up from Oats, whose teams have been in the top five in adjusted tempo each of the last two seasons and top 15 in all of his seasons with the Tide. This game should be played at a breakneck pace and I wouldn’t be surprised at all if the coaches are going to let the kids have some fun tonight and see how fast they can play it.
One of the many things I love about Oats is his progressive offense based on having a high Rim & 3 Rate. Mid-range jumpers are low-ROI shots. It’s a jump shot worth two points when you could move back and take a jump shot for three points. Or, you can try to get to the rim with a shot that has a much higher percentage of going in.
Last season, Alabama led the nation in 3P Rate and had the 17th-lowest shot share on Far 2s as defined by Torvik. In Pannone’s first year, the Red Wolves were 69th in 3P Rate and had the 44th-lowest Far 2 shot share.
In the first game against Toledo, Arky State left a lot of points on the floor, going just 11-of-27 on Close 2s and 10-of-23 at the free throw line. Hopefully those numbers correct themselves here because I think Alabama will find plenty of offensive success. I also don’t believe that Oats will feel like he needs to take it easy on his former assistant, as both guys are very aware of the style of play that Alabama has and why it’s important to keep that up all game long. A big deficit would likely force Arkansas State to try to play even faster and I’d expect the Tide to oblige.
Cal Baptist at Oregon State (-20, 158)
9:30 p.m. ET
Pick: Oregon State -20
The debut for Kyle Getter at Cal Baptist was not a terribly promising one, as the Lancers fell 71-63 at home against North Florida. The Ospreys were only 6-of-24 from 3, an uncharacteristically poor performance from the “Birds of Trey”, but were 21-of-33 on 2s against the new-look pack-line defense of Cal Baptist. I had the Under in that game and it came through with ease, as the Lancers mustered just .824 points per possession.
Oregon State will be a team to watch in the Pac-12 this season. First-year head coach Justin Joyner has worked under Randy Bennett at Saint Mary’s and Dusty May at Michigan, so he’s had two excellent mentors. We saw the killer instinct out of the Beavers in their first game, as they completely pummeled Weber State 102-61 in a game played to 80 possessions. The Beavers had 1.276 PPP and the Wildcats had just .763 PPP.
Joyner is playing fast on offense and wants his team to play with the same intensity on defense. He told reporters after the game that his goal for his team is to be at .900 PPP allowed on defense. That’s a lofty goal, but if he gets his team to buy in, they’re going to be able to blow some teams away.
I think they can blow Cal Baptist away here. Getter, who coached at Virginia under Tony Bennett, had an offense that took 60 shots in the season opener and only 18 of them were at the rim. Conversely, North Florida had 30 shot attempts from 3 and only three in the mid-range.
Oregon State had a Rim & 3 Rate in Game 1 of 50/65, so 76.9%. That’s not bad; I’d like to see it higher, but it should come as they play together. This game should be a rout, as Cal Baptist is still working on its identity. The game against UNF was played to 77 possessions, which is not at all what a team with Virginia hallmarks would do. If this one is in the upper 70s, the Beavers should be fine.
Shop around here, as Circa had the highest number in the space at -20, while others were still -19 or -19.5.
