College Basketball Bets
A slate of 27 games on Thursday precedes 23 on Friday and 64 on Saturday as we’re in that really weird part of the season in college basketball. Just wait until we get through the holidays and there are a lot of teams that haven’t played in 10+ days. We just have to bide our time to get through the New Year and then things will go back to normal and we’ll mostly have nothing but conference play.
Still, our job as handicappers is to evolve and adapt and that’s what the goal has been with this wonky schedule of late. Heck, we’ve got another 11 a.m. ET tip-off here on December 18, as we keep getting the random morning game to go along with the rest of the primetime schedule. Those are the games in focus for me today as we go in search of winners.
For more college basketball best bets today, check out Greg Peterson’s daily article.
As always, I want to give a shout-out to Bart Torvik (BartTorvik.com), Erik Haslam (Haslametrics.com), and KenPom, as they provide a lot of great data. This season, we’ve also connected with CBBAnalytics.com to access their data and I’ll be working that into my article. Use promo code VSIN for $30 off at CBB Analytics and find your betting edge.
This article will run Monday-Saturday. Lines will be from DraftKings, as they are widely available to readers. Shop around for the best prices.
Check the latest college basketball odds for legal U.S. sportsbooks across the country and our Vegas odds if you share a state with us here at VSiN. Also, give the college basketball betting splits (DraftKings) and Circa CBB Betting Splits a look for these or any other college basketball games today have your interest.
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publish.
Bradley Braves (-4.5, 147.5) at Indiana State Sycamores
7 p.m. ET
The Missouri Valley Conference opener for both Bradley and Indiana State is tonight, as the Sycamores level up in difficulty. Even with a road matchup against Duke on the ledger, Indiana State has played the 332nd-ranked strength of schedule per Torvik and 307th per KenPom, including the 346th-ranked set of opposing offenses. And that’s why I’m on Bradley here.
Indiana State is 31st in the nation in eFG% defense, holding opponents to 47.9% on 2s and 27.2% on 3s. But, now they face a team in Bradley that knows how to run an efficient offense. It has been a bit of a transitional start to the season for Brian Wardle without his upperclassmen from the past two seasons, but a lighter schedule of late and some additional practice time seems to have helped him figure out his rotations and his go-to guys.
After losing three of four to start the season with .953, .914, and .942 points per possession in the defeats, the Braves only have one game under 1 PPP. They’ve also held four of their last five opponents under 1 PPP, though that does include a game against a lower-division opponent last time out.
Indiana State may have a lot of offensive issues in this game. The Sycamores shoot a 3 on 46.7% of their shots, but are only shooting 27.9% on those attempts. They’re one of the worst rebounding teams in the nation on both ends, so they aren’t getting second chances or running out in transition. They also have the lowest FT Rate on offense in the nation, so their 77.6% FT% isn’t as valuable as it could be.
More importantly, the Sycamores have played a weak schedule and still have an 18.9% TO% that ranks 266th in the nation per Torvik. Bradley is fifth in the nation in TO% at 24%. One big tenet of handicapping by sharp and influential bettors is to look at field goal volume and see how many more scoring chances one team will have than the other. With the rebounding and turnover numbers for the Sycamores, they’re going to have to shoot the ball very efficiently here and that’s been an issue for them.
Pick: Bradley -4.5 (-112)
Winthrop Eagles (-12.5, 156.5) at North Dakota Fighting Hawks
8 p.m. ET
A weird game here with a random one-off trip for Winthrop up to Grand Forks to take on North Dakota. This will be Winthrop’s first game against a Division I opponent since Dec. 6, as they played two lower-division foes during exams. They’ll play another one on Sunday. It’s quite the trek from Rock Hill, SC to play this game, although CLT airport is only a few miles up the road.
Nevertheless, it’s a weird spot for Winthrop in a very unfamiliar setting with an unfamiliar shooting backdrop. This year’s Eagles team isn’t exactly what Mark Prosser is used to having. The Eagles have been first in FT Rate each of the last two seasons because of how aggressively they attack the rim. Winthrop is 313th in shot share on Close Twos this season at 33.2%. They were No. 1 last season at 51.4% and No. 25 at 44.1% in 2023-24.
This season’s team is firing a lot more 3-pointers, sitting 62nd in 3P Rate this season with the 108th-ranked 3P%. They’ve actually shot even more 3s in their road games this season. This year’s team is also playing at a slower tempo than last year’s team.
North Dakota can’t really do much on offense and their only good attribute on defense is forcing turnovers. They’re shooting just 26.9% from 3, which has been Winthrop’s biggest bugaboo on defense, as opponents are shooting 35.8%. So that shouldn’t be as much of a problem for the Eagles in this one. Meanwhile, North Dakota’s poor interior defense may not be as much of an issue with how Winthrop is playing this year.
North Dakota has a 21.8% TO% on defense, which has artificially sped up their tempo a little bit. Winthrop has only turned the ball over 13.4% of the time. So I’d expect this game to come in under the forecasted number of possessions.
Pick: Under 156.5 (-108)
