College Basketball Bets
We’ve got a couple of games added to the schedule compared to Wednesday, as the Thursday slate has 57 games. Tonight’s card is almost exclusively made up of mid-major and low-major conferences, with just Michigan State vs. Purdue among the big boys.
Tonight is a really good night for learning about some of the potential Cinderella teams in the NCAA Tournament, as the conferences joining the lone Big Ten game are the Big West, American, C-USA, Summit, A-10, Big Sky, Big South, SWAC, CAA, A-Sun, WAC, Ohio Valley, NEC, SoCon, and America East. Plenty of opportunities to check out those potential No. 12 and No. 13 seeds that could make some noise.
For more college basketball best bets today, check out Greg Peterson’s daily article and Tyler Shoemaker’s TSI Projections/Best Bets on weekdays.
As always, I want to give a shout-out to Bart Torvik (BartTorvik.com), Erik Haslam (Haslametrics.com), and KenPom, as they provide a lot of great data.
This season, we’ve also connected with CBBAnalytics.com to access their data and I’ll be working that into my article. Use promo code VSIN30 for $30 off at CBB Analytics and find your betting edge.
This article will run Monday-Saturday. Lines will be from DraftKings, as they are widely available to readers. Shop around for the best prices.
Check the latest college basketball odds for legal U.S. sportsbooks across the country and our Vegas odds if you share a state with us here at VSiN. Also, give the college basketball betting splits (DraftKings) and Circa CBB Betting Splits a look for these or any other college basketball games today have your interest.
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publish.
UMass Lowell River Hawks at Vermont Catamounts (-9.5, 146.5)
7 p.m. ET
We head northeast for this America East Conference battle between UMass Lowell and Vermont. These two teams played back on Jan. 22 and Vermont won 77-68 on the road, getting pretty much any shot that they wanted on offense. The Catamounts had 31 shot attempts at the rim and only turned the ball over seven times.
UMass Lowell was only 8-of-16 at the rim, but did go 10-of-25 from 3 with a pretty solid shooting performance. It was a bit of an outlier game for the River Hawks, in that they turned the ball over 14 times. That 20.8% TO% is the second-highest mark that they’ve had in conference play. Over their last three games, they’ve only had TO% marks of 13.8%, 12.8%, and 7.7%. While the degree of difficulty facing Vermont is much higher than Bryant, New Hampshire, or Binghamton, the River Hawks have had a little more offensive juice of late.
Statistically, Vermont is No. 1 in both eFG% offense and defense in the AEC, while UMass Lowell is fourth and sixth, respectively. The first game was played to 67 possessions and that’s about as high as a Vermont game will get. They’ve played seven games with more than 65 possessions in conference action and they are just 4-3 in those games, accounting for three of their four conference losses. Faster-paced games are not something that they want, so I’d expect Pat Duquette and the River Hawks to try and force the issue more here than they did in the first game.
In that first game, like I said, the River Hawks had a 20.8% TO%, which was 14 turnovers compared to just seven for Vermont. Looking at the TO% marks for both teams in conference play, Vermont is seventh in TO% on defense at 14.7% and UMass Lowell is fifth in TO% on offense at 16.3%. That outlier should regress to the mean here and with the River Hawks off to a double-digit head start, they’re the side for me.
Pick: UMass Lowell +9.5
Tennessee State Tigers at Southeast Missouri State Redhawks (-3.5, 155.5)
8:30 p.m. ET
This could be a preview of the OVC Tournament title game, or at the very least a semifinal matchup, as SEMO State and Tennessee State meet up in the second-to-last regular season game for each team. Both come in at 13-5 in conference play, a half-game behind Morehead State, who will finish their regular season tonight. Tiebreakers will then come into play depending on how the records shake out.
It has been a great first season in Nashville for head coach Nolan Smith. The former Duke standout is one win away from Tennessee State’s first 20-win season since 2015-16. But, he faces a formidable foe tonight in Brad Korn and SEMO State. Korn’s team won 21 games last season and should have made the NCAA Tournament, but slipped up in the conference tourney. They did make it back in 2023 before a true rebuilding season in 2024.
The Redhawks started conference play 4-4. They’ve avenged three of those losses in the rematch. They beat Tennessee State 91-82 way back on Dec. 20, but we’ve seen Korn make the necessary adjustments in the second game against teams more often than not, whereas Smith lost the rematch with Morehead State and Tennessee Tech, though his Tigers are coming off of a blowout win over SIU Edwardsville in a revenge spot.
That was also Tennessee State’s final home game and now they’re back out on the road. Road games are grouped in the OVC and the Tigers have lost at least one game in each of their last three road trips. Part of that is because, while they are the conference’s best offense and rank first in 2P% and second in 3P%, they’re a poor defensive team. Tennessee State is 10th in 2P% defense and 11th in 3P% defense in OVC play. While they rank highly in both offensive categories, they are only +0.4% in 2P% differential and actually sit -0.6% in 3P% differential.
SEMO State is +7% in 2P% differential and -0.1% in 3P% differential in conference play. They’re the best defensive rebounding team in the conference and rank third in eFG% defense. In fact, the Redhawks have held each of their last three opponents to well under a point per possession, along with six of the last seven and eight of the last 10. Their offense can be inconsistent, but the defense is very good by OVC standards.
At home here, I’d expect SEMO State to shoot a little bit better and for that lockdown defense to show up in a rematch game with a coaching advantage.
Pick: Southeast Missouri State -3.5
Abilene Christian Wildcats at Utah Tech Trailblazers (-3.5, 139.5)
9 p.m. ET
There are only seven teams in the WAC, so the conference tournament in Las Vegas will be a little bit light beginning March 11. But, there is great incentive to being a No. 1 or No. 2 seed, as Utah Tech is in that mix. They’re favored to pick up another victory to add to their tally here, as Abilene Christian visits town. It probably shouldn’t come as a surprise that ACU’s only road win in conference play has been at Tarleton State, a fellow Texas team. The Wildcats have lost both roadies in Utah and now face Utah Tech on the road for the first time.
The two teams played in Abilene back on Jan. 29 and Utah Tech won 76-70, despite turning the ball over 21 times in a game played to 74 possessions. When they weren’t turning the ball over, the Trailblazers shot 50% on 2s and were 8-of-17 from 3. The teams also played on Jan. 1 in Abilene and Utah Tech won that game by 15, turning the ball over 16 times. They were 12-of-27 from 3 in that one and really neutralized a good effort inside the arc from the Wildcats.
So, what we’ve established here is that even if Utah Tech struggles to take care of the ball against the conference’s No. 1 team in TO% defense, they’re still able to score. That makes sense, as Utah Tech is second in the conference in eFG% offense, 2P%, and 3P%. They’re also No. 1 in TO% at 17%, so there’s a realistic possibility that they do improve in that department in the third head-to-head meeting.
Abilene Christian’s only claim to fame on defense is taking away the ball. When they don’t do that, they are a pretty distant seventh in the seven-team conference in eFG% defense, 2P%, and 3P%. Utah Tech has a +11% 3P% differential in conference play and opponents have shot 41.3% from deep against Abilene Christian.
This definitely looks like a short number based on the first two meetings, the venue change, and the fact that the Trailblazers are just simply the better team in a lot of key areas.
Pick: Utah Tech -3.5
