College Basketball Bets
It’s here. We’ve been treated to some exciting First Four games, but nothing comes close to the first two days of the NCAA Tournament and Thursday has arrived, bringing all sorts of potential for upsets and chaos. Obviously this is a tremendous betting day and betting event, but take some time to just enjoy these games as a fan, too. You’ll be rooting for bets all day, but this is such a fun effort and a great distraction from daily life, so take it all in.
We’ve got previews for all of the first-round games in our NCAA Tournament Betting Hub.
Get your hands on the 2026 March Mania Betting Guide for $19.99 or as part of your VSiN Pro subscription.
For more college basketball best bets today, check out Greg Peterson’s daily article and Tyler Shoemaker’s TSI Projections/Best Bets on weekdays.
As always, I want to give a shout-out to Bart Torvik (BartTorvik.com), Erik Haslam (Haslametrics.com), and KenPom, as they provide a lot of great data.
This season, we’ve also connected with CBBAnalytics.com to access their data and I’ll be working that into my article. Use promo code VSIN30 for $30 off at CBB Analytics and find your betting edge.
This article will run Monday-Saturday. Lines will be from DraftKings, as they are widely available to readers. Shop around for the best prices.
Check the latest college basketball odds for legal U.S. sportsbooks across the country and our Vegas odds if you share a state with us here at VSiN. Also, give the college basketball betting splits (DraftKings) and Circa CBB Betting Splits a look for these or any other college basketball games today have your interest.
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publish.
North Dakota State Bison vs. Michigan State Spartans (-15.5, 143.5)
4:05 p.m. ET
This was one of my plays from the aforementioned March Mania Betting Guide. We saw this on display on Wednesday night in the First Four – teams that can shoot over taller, stronger teams from major conferences can find success and I truly believe that NDSU can shoot over Michigan State.
The Bison come from a conference where defense is optional, so it’s entirely possible that Michigan State presents some challenges. Still, this is going to be a 3-point contest, as Michigan State allows a 3 on 46% of shot attempts against and NDSU allows a 3 on 44.4% of shot attempts against. But. Sparty does not force many turnovers at all, so the Bison should get their chances to fire away. Both teams shot about 36% from 3 and had similar tempos in the 66-possession range.
It’s going to take a lot of efficiency on both ends of the floor for Michigan State to be able to cover a number of this magnitude given those conditions and how the game is likely to be played.
Pick: North Dakota State +15.5
VCU Rams vs. North Carolina Tar Heels (-2.5, 151.5)
6:50 p.m. ET
The loss of Caleb Wilson is going to be felt by North Carolina at some point in this tournament. Maybe it’s even today against A-10 champ VCU. But, I don’t think it will be today. As the Tar Heels get deeper into the tournament, it’ll be noticeable that their best player is sidelined. Today, though, they should have enough scoring punch and a big enough talent advantage to get through the Rams.
This isn’t the same Rams team we saw that created a ton of havoc and forced a ton of turnovers. Under Phil Martelli Jr., they are above the national average in TO%, but they’re no longer playing a style that is really hard to adjust to in a tourney setting like this. They’re a pretty standard team that has a lot of good metrics, it’s just that the areas where they succeed, UNC is better. The Tar Heels are better in eFG% offense and defense, even though those are both strengths for the Rams. UNC is better at 2P% defense, even though VCU is a top-50 defense in that department.
The Rams do shoot 3s better than UNC, but that’s probably an example of the gap between conferences. It is going to be a huge ask for Lazar Djokovic to handle 7-footer Henri Veesaar down low and the Tar Heels have played several games in a row without Wilson already, so they’re used to playing without him. VCU does not have much interior depth or height beyond Djokovic, so if he gets in foul trouble, it’s going to be a huge deal.
Pick: North Carolina -2.5
Saint Louis Billikens vs. Georgia Bulldogs (-2.5, 168.5)
9:45 p.m. ET
Saint Louis enters the tournament as one of the most fundamentally-sound teams in the field, but they’re at a pretty big disadvantage athletically in this game in my estimation. Even with a roster that finished second in both eFG% offense and defense during the season, Saint Louis is well behind Georgia in adjusted offensive efficiency and, while they are about 40 spots higher in adjusted defensive efficiency, the gap between the SEC and A-10 is staggeringly large.
The Bulldogs and Billikens will play with tempo here, as both teams like to push the pace. To me, that increases the likelihood of a Georgia cover because they’re probably the better team. That means that they should win more of those possessions than they lose. Where a low-possession game probably tightens things up and does limit Georgia’s ability to flex their strength and depth, a higher-possession game helps. Georgia also had 198 dunks to just 55 for Saint Louis. It’s hard to see how SLU hangs in on defense at the rim. Robbie Avila is a fine defender, but he’s a guy who can get gassed easily and showing a lot of effort on the defensive end could hurt him on the offensive end.
The Billikens have very little depth at the rim behind Avila, so that should be an area of great success for the Bulldogs if they can get to the rim and I think that they should. The concern here is that Saint Louis takes and makes a lot of 3s, but Georgia deals with a lot of teams like that in the SEC and it shouldn’t catch them off-guard.
Pick: Georgia -2.5
